PitchMath
Serie A · 2025Wed, 7 Jan 2026, 19:45 UTCFull timeStadio OlimpicoFull-time recap

Lazio

DWDDL
2–2Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricLazioFiorentina
Shots17 shots/match▲8 shots/match
Shots on target9 shots/match▲5 shots/match
Possession49%51%
Corners8 corners/match2 corners/match
Fouls11 fouls/match15 fouls/match
Yellow cards3 cards/match▲5 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Fiorentina's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Lazio, Fiorentina. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Fiorentina's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Fiorentina's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.8 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.05 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.8 goals/match1.05 goals/match1.08 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

weak

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Lazio, Fiorentina.

3.34 days▲Rest daysLazio · Fiorentina3.24 days
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

MetricLazioFiorentinaBaseline
Rest days3.34 days3.24 days—
Matches last 14 days2 matches2 matches—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

Fiorentina have a visible away split

moderate

Fiorentina's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

11.1 shots/match▲ShotsAway only · Season13.5 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots11.1 shots/match13.5 shots/match12.3 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Lazio favored in 5 of 14 directional metrics · Fiorentina in 2 · 7 too close

1.05 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 19/191.05 goals/match
0.84 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 19/191.58 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
11.3 shots/matchShotsseason · 19/19▲13.5 shots/match
13.2 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 19/1913 shots/match
4.16 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 19/193.42 shots/match
4.37 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 19/194.89 shots/match
50.3%Possessionseason · 19/1953.4%
3.95 corners/matchCornersseason · 19/194.53 corners/match
3.84 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 19/194.68 corners/match
2.53 cards/matchCardsseason · 19/192.53 cards/match
11.1 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 19/1913.5 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
47%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 19/1916%
53%Scoring frequencyseason · 19/19▲68%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Lazio52.5
Fiorentina62.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Lazio39.2
Fiorentina47.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Lazio46.7
Fiorentina24.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Lazio17.5
Fiorentina57.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Lazio51.2
Fiorentina71.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Lazio37.5
Fiorentina57.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Lazio32.5
Fiorentina53.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
0.8 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲1.8 goals/match
1 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/51.2 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
11.8 shots/matchShots5/5▲18.6 shots/match
3.4 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲5.6 shots/match
49.6%Possession5/560.4%
4.6 corners/matchCorners5/55 corners/match
4.2 cards/matchCards5/52.4 cards/match
11.2 fouls/matchFouls5/512 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
0.9 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲1.3 goals/match
0.9 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/101.5 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
11.9 shots/matchShots10/10▲15 shots/match
4.7 shots/match▲Shots on target10/104.1 shots/match
51.3%Possession10/1057.7%
5 corners/matchCorners10/104.9 corners/match
3.1 cards/matchCards10/102.8 cards/match
10.8 fouls/matchFouls10/1012.5 fouls/match

Window

Season

19 / 19 matches
1.05 goals/matchGoals scored19/191.05 goals/match
0.84 goals/match▲Goals allowed19/191.58 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
11.3 shots/matchShots19/19▲13.5 shots/match
4.16 shots/match▲Shots on target19/193.42 shots/match
50.3%Possession19/1953.4%
3.95 corners/matchCorners19/194.53 corners/match
2.53 cards/matchCards19/192.53 cards/match
11.1 fouls/matchFouls19/1913.5 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

10 / 10 matches
1.5 goals/match▲Goals scored10/100.7 goals/match
0.9 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/101.6 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.7 shots/match▲Shots10/1011.1 shots/match
4.7 shots/match▲Shots on target10/102.6 shots/match
51.4%Possession10/1053.1%
5.1 corners/matchCorners10/104 corners/match
2.7 cards/matchCards10/102.7 cards/match
10.9 fouls/matchFouls10/1014 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

3.34 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/13.24 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples19 / 19home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Wed, 7 Jan 2026, 23:45 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsLazioFiorentina
CompetitionSerie A
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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