PitchMath
Serie A · 2025Sun, 4 Jan 2026, 14:00 UTCFull timeStadio Artemio FranchiFull-time recap
1–0Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricFiorentinaCremonese
Shots22 shots/match▲6 shots/match
Shots on target8 shots/match▲2 shots/match
Possession65%35%
Corners7 corners/match3 corners/match
Fouls10 fouls/match19 fouls/match
Yellow cards1 cards/match▲2 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Fiorentina's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Fiorentina's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Fiorentina's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Fiorentina's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.6 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.6 goals/match1 goals/match1.08 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Fiorentina show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Fiorentina's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

13.8 shots/match▲ShotsFiorentina · Cremonese8.33 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricFiorentinaCremoneseBaseline
Shots13.8 shots/match8.33 shots/match12.5 shots/match
Shots against12.8 shots/match16.7 shots/match12.7 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Fiorentina have a visible home split

moderate

Fiorentina's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

16.1 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season13.8 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots16.1 shots/match13.8 shots/match12.5 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Fiorentina favored in 6 of 14 directional metrics · Cremonese in 3 · 5 too close

1 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 18/181 goals/match
1.56 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 18/18▲1.17 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
13.8 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 18/188.33 shots/match
12.8 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 18/1816.7 shots/match
3.33 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 18/183.11 shots/match
4.67 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 18/185.33 shots/match
53.6%Possessionseason · 18/1845.5%
4.67 corners/matchCornersseason · 18/183.22 corners/match
4.5 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 18/186.67 corners/match
2.39 cards/matchCardsseason · 18/18▲2.17 cards/match
13.4 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 18/1813.1 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
17%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 18/18▲28%
67%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 18/1861%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Fiorentina62.5
Cremonese32.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Fiorentina44.2
Cremonese15.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Fiorentina27.5
Cremonese17.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Fiorentina67.5
Cremonese2.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Fiorentina63.8
Cremonese47.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Fiorentina62.5
Cremonese2.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Fiorentina53.8
Cremonese13.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1.6 goals/match▲Goals scored5/50.4 goals/match
1.4 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲0.8 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
18.8 shots/match▲Shots5/58.4 shots/match
4.8 shots/match▲Shots on target5/52.6 shots/match
62.2%Possession5/545.6%
4.8 corners/matchCorners5/53 corners/match
2 cards/matchCards5/52.2 cards/match
12 fouls/matchFouls5/516.2 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
1.1 goals/match▲Goals scored10/100.9 goals/match
1.6 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲1.1 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
15.2 shots/match▲Shots10/109.4 shots/match
3.8 shots/match▲Shots on target10/103.1 shots/match
56.2%Possession10/1047.2%
5.2 corners/matchCorners10/103.6 corners/match
2.6 cards/matchCards10/101.9 cards/match
12.6 fouls/matchFouls10/1014.5 fouls/match

Window

Season

18 / 18 matches
1 goals/matchGoals scored18/181 goals/match
1.56 goals/matchGoals allowed18/18▲1.17 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13.8 shots/match▲Shots18/188.33 shots/match
3.33 shots/match▲Shots on target18/183.11 shots/match
53.6%Possession18/1845.5%
4.67 corners/matchCorners18/183.22 corners/match
2.39 cards/matchCards18/182.17 cards/match
13.4 fouls/matchFouls18/1813.1 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

9 / 10 matches
1.44 goals/match▲Goals scored9/100.9 goals/match
1.56 goals/matchGoals allowed9/10▲1 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
16.1 shots/match▲Shots9/108.1 shots/match
4.33 shots/match▲Shots on target9/102.8 shots/match
53.8%Possession9/1044.1%
5.11 corners/matchCorners9/103.2 corners/match
2.33 cards/matchCards9/102.3 cards/match
13 fouls/matchFouls9/1013.7 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

8.1 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples18 / 18home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 4 Jan 2026, 18:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsFiorentinaCremonese
CompetitionSerie A
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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