PitchMath
Serie A · 2025Stadio Artemio Franchi

Fiorentina 1–0 Cremonese · Serie A

1–0Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Fiorentina won 1–0.

Shots
226
Shots on target
82
Expected goals
2.060.73
Possession
65%35%

Full time

What the match recorded

Fiorentina beat Cremonese 1–0. Recorded in this match (Fiorentina – Cremonese): shots 22–6, shots on target 8–2, expected goals 2.06–0.73, possession 65%–35%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Fiorentina's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Fiorentina's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.6 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1 goal/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.6 goals/match1 goal/match1.08 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Fiorentina show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Fiorentina's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

13.8 shots/match ▲ShotsFiorentina · Cremonese8.33 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricFiorentinaCremoneseBaseline
Shots13.8 shots/match8.33 shots/match12.5 shots/match
Shots against12.8 shots/match16.7 shots/match12.7 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Fiorentina have a visible home split

moderate

Fiorentina's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

16.1 shots/match ▲ShotsHome only · Season13.8 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots16.1 shots/match13.8 shots/match12.5 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots22 shots6 shotsFiorentina 22 shots, Cremonese 6 shots
  • Shots on target8 shots2 shotsFiorentina 8 shots, Cremonese 2 shots
  • Expected goals2.06 xG0.73 xGFiorentina 2.06 xG, Cremonese 0.73 xG
  • Possession65%35%Fiorentina 65%, Cremonese 35%
  • Corners7 corners3 cornersFiorentina 7 corners, Cremonese 3 corners
  • Fouls10 fouls19 foulsFiorentina 10 fouls, Cremonese 19 fouls
  • Yellow cards1 card2 cardsFiorentina 1 card, Cremonese 2 cards

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Roberto Piccoli · Fiorentina · 18′ · 0.01 xG · on targetMartín Payero · Cremonese · 29′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedCher Ndour · Fiorentina · 45′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedAlbert Guðmundsson · Fiorentina · 5′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedMartín Payero · Cremonese · 13′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedRoberto Piccoli · Fiorentina · 17′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedRolando Mandragora · Fiorentina · 45′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedAlbert Guðmundsson · Fiorentina · 45′ · 0.03 xG · on targetAlberto Grassi · Cremonese · 90′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedNicolò Fagioli · Fiorentina · 5′ · 0.04 xG · on targetRolando Mandragora · Fiorentina · 50′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedTommaso Barbieri · Cremonese · 61′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedNiccolò Fortini · Fiorentina · 90′ · 0.04 xG · on targetRolando Mandragora · Fiorentina · 8′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedRolando Mandragora · Fiorentina · 14′ · 0.05 xG · on targetRoberto Piccoli · Fiorentina · 48′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedRobin Gosens · Fiorentina · 73′ · 0.05 xG · on targetAlbert Guðmundsson · Fiorentina · 45′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedAlessio Zerbin · Cremonese · 88′ · 0.06 xG · on targetRolando Mandragora · Fiorentina · 48′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedNicolò Fagioli · Fiorentina · 82′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedMoise Kean · Fiorentina · 88′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedFabiano Parisi · Fiorentina · 12′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedLuca Ranieri · Fiorentina · 63′ · 0.12 xG · on targetRoberto Piccoli · Fiorentina · 79′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedAlbert Guðmundsson · Fiorentina · 19′ · 0.16 xG · off target or blockedAntonio Sanabria · Cremonese · 83′ · 0.58 xG · on targetMoise Kean · Fiorentina · 90′ · 0.89 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Fiorentina: 22 shots, 8 on target, 2.11 xG. Cremonese: 6 shots, 2 on target, 0.76 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.252.50′HT90′Moise Kean · Fiorentina · 90′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Fiorentina 2.11 xG · Cremonese 0.76 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

2Fiorentina
0Draws
0Cremonese
Cremonese — Fiorentina · Serie A0–2
Fiorentina — Cremonese · Serie A3–2

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Fiorentina favored in 8 of 11 directional metrics · Cremonese in 2 · 1 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Fiorentina18 matchesCremonese18 matches
1 goal/matchGoals scored18/181 goal/match
1.56 goals/matchGoals allowed18/18▲ 1.17 goals/match
1.5 xG/match ▲Expected goals18/180.98 xG/match
13.8 shots/match ▲Shots18/188.33 shots/match
3.33 shots/match ▲Shots on target18/183.11 shots/match
53.6% ●Possession18/1845.5%
4.67 corners/match ●Corners18/183.22 corners/match
2.39 cards/matchCards18/182.17 cards/match
13.4 fouls/matchFouls18/1813.1 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples18 / 18home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 4 Jan 2026, 18:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Serie A

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsFiorentinaCremonese
CompetitionSerie ASerie A 2025/26
Head-to-headFiorentina — Cremonese
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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