PitchMath
Serie A · 2025Sun, 4 Jan 2026, 11:30 UTCFull timeStadio OlimpicoFull-time recap

Lazio

LDWDD
0–2Full-time recap

Napoli

WWWLW

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricLazioNapoli
Shots5 shots/match14 shots/match▲
Shots on target0 shots/match3 shots/match▲
Possession35%65%
Corners2 corners/match6 corners/match
Fouls10 fouls/match13 fouls/match
Yellow cards5 cards/match1 cards/match▲

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Lazio's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: Lazio's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Lazio's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Lazio's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.6 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.6 goals/match1 goals/match1.03 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Lazio show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

Lazio's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

11 shots/match▲ShotsLazio · Napoli13.3 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricLazioNapoliBaseline
Shots11 shots/match13.3 shots/match12.2 shots/match
Shots against13.5 shots/match10.4 shots/match12.7 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Lazio favored in 1 of 14 directional metrics · Napoli in 8 · 5 too close

1 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 18/17▲1.53 goals/match
0.78 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 18/170.76 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
11 shots/matchShotsseason · 18/17▲13.3 shots/match
13.5 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 18/17▲10.4 shots/match
3.89 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 18/17▲4.88 shots/match
4.33 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 18/17▲2.53 shots/match
50.3%Possessionseason · 18/1756.8%
3.72 corners/matchCornersseason · 18/175.82 corners/match
3.94 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 18/17▲2.71 corners/match
2.5 cards/matchCardsseason · 18/17▲1.53 cards/match
11.1 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 18/1712.2 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
50%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 18/1741%
50%Scoring frequencyseason · 18/17▲76%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Lazio52.5
Napoli77.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Lazio35
Napoli78.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Lazio45.8
Napoli90
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Lazio12.5
Napoli37.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Lazio53.8
Napoli20
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Lazio32.5
Napoli87.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Lazio29.4
Napoli64.4
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
0.6 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲1.4 goals/match
0.8 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲0.4 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
11.6 shots/matchShots5/511.8 shots/match
3.4 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲4 shots/match
49.2%Possession5/554.8%
4.4 corners/matchCorners5/56 corners/match
4.4 cards/matchCards5/51.8 cards/match
11.6 fouls/matchFouls5/59.8 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
0.7 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲1.4 goals/match
0.7 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲0.6 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
11.3 shots/matchShots10/1010.8 shots/match
4.4 shots/match▲Shots on target10/104.1 shots/match
52.5%Possession10/1052.5%
4.3 corners/matchCorners10/104.9 corners/match
3 cards/matchCards10/101.9 cards/match
10.9 fouls/matchFouls10/1011.9 fouls/match

Window

Season

18 / 17 matches
1 goals/matchGoals scored18/17▲1.53 goals/match
0.78 goals/matchGoals allowed18/170.76 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
11 shots/matchShots18/17▲13.3 shots/match
3.89 shots/matchShots on target18/17▲4.88 shots/match
50.3%Possession18/1756.8%
3.72 corners/matchCorners18/175.82 corners/match
2.5 cards/matchCards18/171.53 cards/match
11.1 fouls/matchFouls18/1712.2 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

9 / 10 matches
1.44 goals/match▲Goals scored9/101.2 goals/match
0.78 goals/matchGoals allowed9/10▲0.7 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.2 shots/matchShots9/10▲13.6 shots/match
4.22 shots/matchShots on target9/10▲4.5 shots/match
51.7%Possession9/1058.3%
4.78 corners/matchCorners9/105.5 corners/match
2.67 cards/matchCards9/101.4 cards/match
10.9 fouls/matchFouls9/1011.9 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7.77 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/16.9 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples18 / 17home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 4 Jan 2026, 15:30 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsLazioNapoli
CompetitionSerie A
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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