PitchMath
Serie A · 2025Thu, 8 Jan 2026, 17:30 UTCFull timeStadio Giovanni ZiniFull-time recap
2–2Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricCremoneseCagliari
Shots12 shots/match21 shots/match▲
Shots on target5 shots/match5 shots/match
Possession44%56%
Corners2 corners/match4 corners/match
Fouls16 fouls/match12 fouls/match
Yellow cards2 cards/match2 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Cremonese's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: Cremonese's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Cremonese's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Cremonese's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.4 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.05 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.4 goals/match1.05 goals/match1.11 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Cremonese show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

Cremonese's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

8.53 shots/match▲ShotsCremonese · Cagliari10.2 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricCremoneseCagliariBaseline
Shots8.53 shots/match10.2 shots/match12.3 shots/match
Shots against16.9 shots/match13.3 shots/match12.8 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Cremonese favored in 3 of 14 directional metrics · Cagliari in 5 · 6 too close

1.05 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 19/191.11 goals/match
1.21 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 19/191.42 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
8.53 shots/matchShotsseason · 19/19▲10.2 shots/match
16.9 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 19/19▲13.3 shots/match
3.21 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 19/19▲3.47 shots/match
5.32 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 19/195.16 shots/match
45.4%Possessionseason · 19/1945.8%
3.16 corners/matchCornersseason · 19/193.47 corners/match
6.53 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 19/19▲5.21 corners/match
2.16 cards/match▲Cardsseason · 19/192.37 cards/match
13.3 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 19/1915.5 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
26%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 19/1916%
63%Scoring frequencyseason · 19/19▲68%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Cremonese27.5
Cagliari32.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Cremonese18.3
Cagliari31.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Cremonese17.5
Cagliari25
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Cremonese2.5
Cagliari12.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Cremonese55
Cagliari85
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Cremonese2.5
Cagliari22.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Cremonese17.5
Cagliari40
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
0.4 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲1.4 goals/match
1.2 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/51.6 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
8.6 shots/matchShots5/5▲11.6 shots/match
2.8 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲3.2 shots/match
44.6%Possession5/549.2%
2.4 corners/matchCorners5/53.6 corners/match
2.4 cards/matchCards5/51.8 cards/match
16.4 fouls/matchFouls5/513 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
0.9 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲1.2 goals/match
1.3 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/101.5 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
9.5 shots/matchShots10/10▲11 shots/match
3.2 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲3.9 shots/match
47%Possession10/1046%
3.5 corners/matchCorners10/103.9 corners/match
2 cards/matchCards10/102.3 cards/match
14.8 fouls/matchFouls10/1015.4 fouls/match

Window

Season

19 / 19 matches
1.05 goals/matchGoals scored19/191.11 goals/match
1.21 goals/match▲Goals allowed19/191.42 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
8.53 shots/matchShots19/19▲10.2 shots/match
3.21 shots/matchShots on target19/19▲3.47 shots/match
45.4%Possession19/1945.8%
3.16 corners/matchCorners19/193.47 corners/match
2.16 cards/matchCards19/192.37 cards/match
13.3 fouls/matchFouls19/1915.5 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

9 / 10 matches
1.22 goals/match▲Goals scored9/101.1 goals/match
1.44 goals/matchGoals allowed9/101.4 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
9 shots/matchShots9/10▲10.4 shots/match
3.67 shots/match▲Shots on target9/103.2 shots/match
46.9%Possession9/1044.2%
3.11 corners/matchCorners9/103.2 corners/match
2 cards/matchCards9/102.2 cards/match
12.8 fouls/matchFouls9/1014.8 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

4.15 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/15.91 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples19 / 19home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Thu, 8 Jan 2026, 21:30 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsCremoneseCagliari
CompetitionSerie A
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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