PitchMath
Serie A · 2025Stadio Giuseppe Meazza

Milan 1–1 Genoa · Serie A

Milan

WWDWW
1–1Historical match

Genoa

WLLLD

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Milan and Genoa drew 1–1.

Shots
327
Shots on target
82
Expected goals
2.451.32
Possession
61%39%

Full time

What the match recorded

AC Milan and Genoa drew 1–1. Recorded in this match (AC Milan – Genoa): shots 32–7, shots on target 8–2, expected goals 2.45–1.32, possession 61%–39%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Genoa's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Genoa's last-five shots average is below their season average.

8 shots/match ▲ShotsLast 5 · Season11.2 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Shots8 shots/match11.2 shots/match12.3 shots/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

AC Milan have a visible home split

moderate

AC Milan's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

16.7 shots/match ▲ShotsHome only · Season14.3 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots16.7 shots/match14.3 shots/match12.3 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Genoa show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

Genoa's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

14.3 shots/match ▲ShotsAC Milan · Genoa11.2 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricAC MilanGenoaBaseline
Shots14.3 shots/match11.2 shots/match12.3 shots/match
Shots against10.4 shots/match13.3 shots/match12.8 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots32 shots7 shotsMilan 32 shots, Genoa 7 shots
  • Shots on target8 shots2 shotsMilan 8 shots, Genoa 2 shots
  • Expected goals2.45 xG1.32 xGMilan 2.45 xG, Genoa 1.32 xG
  • Possession61%39%Milan 61%, Genoa 39%
  • Corners12 corners1 cornerMilan 12 corners, Genoa 1 corner
  • Fouls12 fouls8 foulsMilan 12 fouls, Genoa 8 fouls
  • Yellow cards4 cards1 cardMilan 4 cards, Genoa 1 card

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Lorenzo Colombo · Genoa · 23′ · 0.01 xG · on targetMatteo Gabbia · AC Milan · 31′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedYoussouf Fofana · AC Milan · 21′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedAarón Martín · Genoa · 37′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedAdrien Rabiot · AC Milan · 58′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedChristian Pulišić · AC Milan · 63′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedZachary Athekame · AC Milan · 79′ · 0.02 xG · on targetChristian Pulišić · AC Milan · 32′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedRafael Leão · AC Milan · 41′ · 0.03 xG · on targetChristian Pulišić · AC Milan · 46′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedRafael Leão · AC Milan · 53′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedChristian Pulišić · AC Milan · 85′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedRuben Loftus-Cheek · AC Milan · 53′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedLorenzo Colombo · Genoa · 82′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedStrahinja Pavlović · AC Milan · 90′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedLuka Modrić · AC Milan · 56′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedAdrien Rabiot · AC Milan · 85′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedVitinha · Genoa · 10′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedVitinha · Genoa · 18′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedAlexis Saelemaekers · AC Milan · 24′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedChristian Pulišić · AC Milan · 90′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedRafael Leão · AC Milan · 90′ · 0.06 xG · goalStrahinja Pavlović · AC Milan · 5′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedStrahinja Pavlović · AC Milan · 16′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedRafael Leão · AC Milan · 21′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedDavide Bartesaghi · AC Milan · 65′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedRafael Leão · AC Milan · 88′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedChristian Pulišić · AC Milan · 87′ · 0.08 xG · on targetNiclas Füllkrug · AC Milan · 88′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedStrahinja Pavlović · AC Milan · 9′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedChristian Pulišić · AC Milan · 33′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedMatteo Gabbia · AC Milan · 58′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedChristian Pulišić · AC Milan · 76′ · 0.09 xG · on targetRafael Leão · AC Milan · 86′ · 0.12 xG · on targetMatteo Gabbia · AC Milan · 7′ · 0.15 xG · on targetNiclas Füllkrug · AC Milan · 90′ · 0.22 xG · off target or blockedLorenzo Colombo · Genoa · 28′ · 0.35 xG · goalRafael Leão · AC Milan · 36′ · 0.42 xG · on targetNicolae Stanciu · Genoa · 90′ · 0.82 xG · off target or blocked
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

AC Milan: 32 shots, 8 on target, 2.38 xG. Genoa: 7 shots, 2 on target, 1.36 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.252.50′HT90′Rafael Leão · AC Milan · 90′Lorenzo Colombo · Genoa · 28′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: AC Milan 2.38 xG · Genoa 1.36 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

3Milan
2Draws
0Genoa
Genoa — Milan · Serie A1–2
Milan — Genoa · Serie A0–0
Milan — Genoa · Serie A3–3
Genoa — Milan · Serie A0–1
Milan — Genoa · Serie A2–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Milan favored in 11 of 11 directional metrics · Genoa in 0

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Milan18 matchesGenoa19 matches
1.61 goals/match ▲Goals scored18/191 goal/match
0.78 goals/match ▲Goals allowed18/191.53 goals/match
1.61 xG/match ▲Expected goals18/191.25 xG/match
14.3 shots/match ▲Shots18/1911.2 shots/match
4.89 shots/match ▲Shots on target18/193.84 shots/match
52.1% ●Possession18/1946.7%
4.78 corners/match ●Corners18/193.42 corners/match
1.61 cards/matchCards18/192.21 cards/match
9.56 fouls/matchFouls18/1913.5 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples18 / 19home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Thu, 8 Jan 2026, 23:45 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Serie A

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsMilanGenoa
CompetitionSerie ASerie A 2025/26
Head-to-headMilan — Genoa
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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