PitchMath
Serie A · 2025Thu, 8 Jan 2026, 19:45 UTCFull timeStadio Giuseppe MeazzaFull-time recap
1–1Full-time recap

Genoa

WLLLD

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricAC MilanGenoa
Shots32 shots/match▲7 shots/match
Shots on target8 shots/match▲2 shots/match
Possession61%39%
Corners12 corners/match1 corners/match
Fouls12 fouls/match8 fouls/match
Yellow cards4 cards/match1 cards/match▲

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Genoa's last-five shots average is below their season average. A second useful context is: AC Milan's home-only shot average is above their full-season average. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Genoa's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Genoa's last-five shots average is below their season average.

8 shots/match▲ShotsLast 5 · Season11.2 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Shots8 shots/match11.2 shots/match12.3 shots/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

AC Milan have a visible home split

moderate

AC Milan's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

16.7 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season14.3 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots16.7 shots/match14.3 shots/match12.3 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Genoa show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

Genoa's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

14.3 shots/match▲ShotsAC Milan · Genoa11.2 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricAC MilanGenoaBaseline
Shots14.3 shots/match11.2 shots/match12.3 shots/match
Shots against10.4 shots/match13.3 shots/match12.8 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

AC Milan favored in 10 of 14 directional metrics · Genoa in 0 · 4 too close

1.61 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 18/191 goals/match
0.78 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 18/191.53 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
14.3 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 18/1911.2 shots/match
10.4 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 18/1913.3 shots/match
4.89 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 18/193.84 shots/match
3.11 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 18/194.58 shots/match
52.1%Possessionseason · 18/1946.7%
4.78 corners/matchCornersseason · 18/193.42 corners/match
4.33 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 18/195.47 corners/match
1.61 cards/match▲Cardsseason · 18/192.21 cards/match
9.56 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 18/1913.5 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
50%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 18/1911%
94%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 18/1968%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

AC Milan57.5
Genoa47.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

AC Milan87.5
Genoa30.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

AC Milan85
Genoa26.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

AC Milan77.5
Genoa47.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

AC Milan10
Genoa60
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

AC Milan62.5
Genoa15
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

AC Milan58.8
Genoa34.4
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
2 goals/match▲Goals scored5/50.8 goals/match
1 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/51.6 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
16.8 shots/match▲Shots5/58 shots/match
5.6 shots/match▲Shots on target5/52.8 shots/match
58%Possession5/541%
7.4 corners/matchCorners5/52.2 corners/match
1.4 cards/matchCards5/51.4 cards/match
8.8 fouls/matchFouls5/510.2 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
1.6 goals/match▲Goals scored10/101.5 goals/match
0.8 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/101.6 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13.9 shots/match▲Shots10/1010.6 shots/match
4.9 shots/match▲Shots on target10/104.3 shots/match
51%Possession10/1043.7%
5.3 corners/matchCorners10/102.7 corners/match
1.7 cards/matchCards10/101.7 cards/match
9.3 fouls/matchFouls10/1012.1 fouls/match

Window

Season

18 / 19 matches
1.61 goals/match▲Goals scored18/191 goals/match
0.78 goals/match▲Goals allowed18/191.53 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
14.3 shots/match▲Shots18/1911.2 shots/match
4.89 shots/match▲Shots on target18/193.84 shots/match
52.1%Possession18/1946.7%
4.78 corners/matchCorners18/193.42 corners/match
1.61 cards/matchCards18/192.21 cards/match
9.56 fouls/matchFouls18/1913.5 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

10 / 9 matches
1.6 goals/match▲Goals scored10/91.44 goals/match
0.9 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/91.78 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
16.7 shots/match▲Shots10/910.4 shots/match
5.3 shots/match▲Shots on target10/94.11 shots/match
51.9%Possession10/941%
5.8 corners/matchCorners10/93.22 corners/match
1.9 cards/matchCards10/92.33 cards/match
10.7 fouls/matchFouls10/913.1 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

6 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/15.24 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples18 / 19home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Thu, 8 Jan 2026, 23:45 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsAC MilanGenoa
CompetitionSerie A
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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