PitchMath
Serie A · 2025Sun, 11 Jan 2026, 14:00 UTCFull timeStadio Artemio FranchiFull-time recap
1–1Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricFiorentinaAC Milan
Shots20 shots/match▲13 shots/match
Shots on target7 shots/match▲3 shots/match
Possession52%48%
Corners8 corners/match5 corners/match
Fouls10 fouls/match14 fouls/match
Yellow cards2 cards/match▲3 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Fiorentina's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Fiorentina, AC Milan. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Fiorentina's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Fiorentina's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.8 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.05 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.8 goals/match1.05 goals/match1.1 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

moderate

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Fiorentina, AC Milan.

3.76 days▲Rest daysFiorentina · AC Milan2.76 days
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

MetricFiorentinaAC MilanBaseline
Rest days3.76 days2.76 days—
Matches last 14 days2 matches2 matches—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

Fiorentina have a visible home split

moderate

Fiorentina's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

16.5 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season13.8 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots16.5 shots/match13.8 shots/match12.2 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0Fiorentina
0Draws
1AC Milan
AC Milan — Fiorentina · Serie A2–1

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Fiorentina favored in 0 of 14 directional metrics · AC Milan in 8 · 6 too close

1.05 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 20/19▲1.58 goals/match
1.55 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 20/19▲0.79 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
13.8 shots/matchShotsseason · 20/1914.2 shots/match
13 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 20/19▲10.9 shots/match
3.6 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 20/19▲4.79 shots/match
4.8 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 20/19▲3.32 shots/match
53.4%Possessionseason · 20/1951.9%
4.7 corners/matchCornersseason · 20/194.79 corners/match
4.7 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 20/194.53 corners/match
2.5 cards/matchCardsseason · 20/19▲1.68 cards/match
13.4 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 20/199.79 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
15%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 20/19▲47%
70%Scoring frequencyseason · 20/19▲95%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Fiorentina62.5
AC Milan57.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Fiorentina45.8
AC Milan82.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Fiorentina27.5
AC Milan77.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Fiorentina62.5
AC Milan77.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Fiorentina72.5
AC Milan12.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Fiorentina57.5
AC Milan62.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Fiorentina53.8
AC Milan55
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1.8 goals/match▲Goals scored5/51.6 goals/match
1 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲0.8 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
18.6 shots/match▲Shots5/516 shots/match
6.2 shots/match▲Shots on target5/55 shots/match
57.8%Possession5/554.8%
4.8 corners/matchCorners5/57.6 corners/match
2.6 cards/matchCards5/51.8 cards/match
12 fouls/matchFouls5/510.2 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
1.4 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲1.6 goals/match
1.5 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲0.8 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
15.5 shots/match▲Shots10/1014.6 shots/match
4.4 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲5.1 shots/match
56.6%Possession10/1051.4%
5.3 corners/matchCorners10/105.4 corners/match
2.6 cards/matchCards10/101.7 cards/match
12.1 fouls/matchFouls10/109.9 fouls/match

Window

Season

20 / 19 matches
1.05 goals/matchGoals scored20/19▲1.58 goals/match
1.55 goals/matchGoals allowed20/19▲0.79 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13.8 shots/matchShots20/1914.2 shots/match
3.6 shots/matchShots on target20/19▲4.79 shots/match
53.4%Possession20/1951.9%
4.7 corners/matchCorners20/194.79 corners/match
2.5 cards/matchCards20/191.68 cards/match
13.4 fouls/matchFouls20/199.79 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

10 / 9 matches
1.4 goals/matchGoals scored10/9▲1.56 goals/match
1.5 goals/matchGoals allowed10/9▲0.67 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
16.5 shots/match▲Shots10/911.4 shots/match
4.6 shots/match▲Shots on target10/94.22 shots/match
53.6%Possession10/951.9%
5.4 corners/matchCorners10/93.67 corners/match
2.3 cards/matchCards10/91.44 cards/match
12.7 fouls/matchFouls10/98.78 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

3.76 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/12.76 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples20 / 19home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 11 Jan 2026, 18:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsFiorentinaAC Milan
CompetitionSerie A
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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