PitchMath
Serie A · 2025Wed, 7 Jan 2026, 19:45 UTCFull timeStadio Ennio TardiniFull-time recap

Parma

LWLWD
0–2Full-time recap

Inter

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This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricParmaInter
Shots4 shots/match26 shots/match▲
Shots on target0 shots/match8 shots/match▲
Possession37%63%
Corners1 corners/match3 corners/match
Fouls4 fouls/match20 fouls/match
Yellow cards0 cards/match▲3 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Inter's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. A second useful context is: A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Inter. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Inter show a distinct attacking-volume record

strong

Inter's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

11.3 shots/match▲ShotsParma · Inter17.9 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricParmaInterBaseline
Shots11.3 shots/match17.9 shots/match12.3 shots/match
Shots against14.7 shots/match8.56 shots/match12.6 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

moderate

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Inter.

4.24 days▲Rest daysParma · Inter3 days
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

MetricParmaInterBaseline
Rest days4.24 days3 days—
Matches last 14 days2 matches2 matches—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

The teams have contrasting possession records

strong

Inter have recorded the higher season possession share.

42.3%▲PossessionParma · Inter59.4%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 17.1 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricParmaInterBaseline
Possession42.3%59.4%48.7%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Parma favored in 0 of 14 directional metrics · Inter in 10 · 4 too close

0.67 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 18/18▲2.22 goals/match
1.17 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 18/18▲0.83 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
11.3 shots/matchShotsseason · 18/18▲17.9 shots/match
14.7 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 18/18▲8.56 shots/match
2.94 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 18/18▲5.89 shots/match
4.39 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 18/18▲2.78 shots/match
42.3%Possessionseason · 18/1859.4%
3.28 corners/matchCornersseason · 18/186.94 corners/match
4.78 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 18/18▲2.83 corners/match
2.06 cards/matchCardsseason · 18/18▲1.67 cards/match
10.3 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 18/1814.9 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
28%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 18/18▲50%
50%Scoring frequencyseason · 18/18▲94%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Parma12.5
Inter92.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Parma15
Inter97.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Parma30.8
Inter90
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Parma77.5
Inter97.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Parma31.2
Inter52.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Parma7.5
Inter97.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Parma13.8
Inter93.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
0.6 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲2.4 goals/match
0.8 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲0.4 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.2 shots/matchShots5/5▲17.8 shots/match
2.8 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲7.4 shots/match
42.6%Possession5/556.4%
3.4 corners/matchCorners5/56 corners/match
1.4 cards/matchCards5/52.2 cards/match
8.4 fouls/matchFouls5/517.6 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
0.9 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲2.1 goals/match
1.4 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲0.4 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.2 shots/matchShots10/10▲17.4 shots/match
3.3 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲6.3 shots/match
42.3%Possession10/1059.7%
3.3 corners/matchCorners10/106.4 corners/match
2.2 cards/matchCards10/101.8 cards/match
9.3 fouls/matchFouls10/1015.1 fouls/match

Window

Season

18 / 18 matches
0.67 goals/matchGoals scored18/18▲2.22 goals/match
1.17 goals/matchGoals allowed18/18▲0.83 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
11.3 shots/matchShots18/18▲17.9 shots/match
2.94 shots/matchShots on target18/18▲5.89 shots/match
42.3%Possession18/1859.4%
3.28 corners/matchCorners18/186.94 corners/match
2.06 cards/matchCards18/181.67 cards/match
10.3 fouls/matchFouls18/1814.9 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

10 / 9 matches
0.7 goals/matchGoals scored10/9▲1.78 goals/match
1.3 goals/matchGoals allowed10/9▲1 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
11.4 shots/matchShots10/9▲17.7 shots/match
2.4 shots/matchShots on target10/9▲4.89 shots/match
43%Possession10/959.1%
3.2 corners/matchCorners10/95.78 corners/match
1.8 cards/matchCards10/91.89 cards/match
10.5 fouls/matchFouls10/914.9 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

4.24 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/13 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples18 / 18home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Wed, 7 Jan 2026, 23:45 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsParmaInter
CompetitionSerie A
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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