PitchMath
Serie A · 2025Sun, 4 Jan 2026, 19:45 UTCFull timeStadio Giuseppe MeazzaFull-time recap

Inter

LWWWW
3–1Full-time recap

Bologna

WLDLD

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricInterBologna
Shots19 shots/match▲6 shots/match
Shots on target10 shots/match▲2 shots/match
Possession58%42%
Corners7 corners/match1 corners/match
Fouls20 fouls/match21 fouls/match
Yellow cards3 cards/match3 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Bologna's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: Bologna's away-only shot average is below their full-season average. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Bologna's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Bologna's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.8 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.47 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.8 goals/match1.47 goals/match1.08 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Bologna have a visible away split

moderate

Bologna's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

10.7 shots/match▲ShotsAway only · Season13.4 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots10.7 shots/match13.4 shots/match12.5 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Both teams have elevated corners records

weak

Each team's season corners average is above the competition baseline.

7.18 corners/match▲CornersInter · Bologna4.94 corners/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Both team averages are compared with the same competition baseline.

Window: season

MetricInterBolognaBaseline
Corners7.18 corners/match4.94 corners/match4.37 corners/match

Caveat: A shared historical pattern is descriptive and may not repeat in one fixture.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Inter favored in 10 of 14 directional metrics · Bologna in 0 · 4 too close

2.24 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 17/171.47 goals/match
0.88 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 17/171 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
17.4 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 17/1713.4 shots/match
8.82 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 17/1710.7 shots/match
5.76 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 17/174.35 shots/match
2.94 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 17/173.88 shots/match
59.2%Possessionseason · 17/1755.9%
7.18 corners/matchCornersseason · 17/174.94 corners/match
2.94 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 17/174.18 corners/match
1.59 cards/match▲Cardsseason · 17/172.18 cards/match
14.6 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 17/1715.4 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
47%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 17/1735%
94%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 17/1776%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Inter92.5
Bologna67.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Inter97.5
Bologna70.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Inter85.8
Bologna64.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Inter97.5
Bologna42.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Inter50
Bologna73.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Inter97.5
Bologna67.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Inter92.5
Bologna71.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
2.4 goals/match▲Goals scored5/50.8 goals/match
0.4 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/51.8 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
15.4 shots/matchShots5/515 shots/match
6.4 shots/match▲Shots on target5/55 shots/match
55.8%Possession5/553.8%
6.6 corners/matchCorners5/54.4 corners/match
1.8 cards/matchCards5/52.4 cards/match
16.6 fouls/matchFouls5/516 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
2 goals/match▲Goals scored10/101.4 goals/match
0.7 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/101.2 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
16.3 shots/match▲Shots10/1013.5 shots/match
5.8 shots/match▲Shots on target10/104.5 shots/match
59.1%Possession10/1054.9%
6.5 corners/matchCorners10/104.3 corners/match
1.6 cards/matchCards10/102.4 cards/match
14.1 fouls/matchFouls10/1015.6 fouls/match

Window

Season

17 / 17 matches
2.24 goals/match▲Goals scored17/171.47 goals/match
0.88 goals/match▲Goals allowed17/171 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
17.4 shots/match▲Shots17/1713.4 shots/match
5.76 shots/match▲Shots on target17/174.35 shots/match
59.2%Possession17/1755.9%
7.18 corners/matchCorners17/174.94 corners/match
1.59 cards/matchCards17/172.18 cards/match
14.6 fouls/matchFouls17/1715.4 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

9 / 9 matches
2.67 goals/match▲Goals scored9/91.56 goals/match
0.67 goals/match▲Goals allowed9/91.22 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
18.1 shots/match▲Shots9/910.7 shots/match
6.89 shots/match▲Shots on target9/94 shots/match
59.7%Possession9/955.3%
8.11 corners/matchCorners9/94.56 corners/match
1.44 cards/matchCards9/92.56 cards/match
15 fouls/matchFouls9/917.1 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17.11 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples17 / 17home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 4 Jan 2026, 23:45 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsInterBologna
CompetitionSerie A
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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