PitchMath
Serie A · 2025Wed, 7 Jan 2026, 17:30 UTCFull timeStadio Renato Dall'AraFull-time recap

Bologna

LDLDL
0–2Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricBolognaAtalanta
Shots11 shots/match11 shots/match
Shots on target2 shots/match5 shots/match▲
Possession53%47%
Corners6 corners/match6 corners/match
Fouls16 fouls/match15 fouls/match
Yellow cards0 cards/match0 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Bologna's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Bologna, Atalanta. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Bologna's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Bologna's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.6 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.39 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.6 goals/match1.39 goals/match1.08 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

moderate

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Bologna, Atalanta.

2.91 days▲Rest daysBologna · Atalanta3.91 days
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

MetricBolognaAtalantaBaseline
Rest days2.91 days3.91 days—
Matches last 14 days2 matches2 matches—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

Bologna have a visible home split

moderate

Bologna's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

15.8 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season13.2 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots15.8 shots/match13.2 shots/match12.3 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Bologna favored in 2 of 14 directional metrics · Atalanta in 4 · 8 too close

1.39 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 18/191.21 goals/match
1.06 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 18/19▲1 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
13.2 shots/matchShotsseason · 18/19▲14.3 shots/match
10.7 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 18/1910.7 shots/match
4.22 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 18/194.26 shots/match
3.94 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 18/193.84 shots/match
55.7%Possessionseason · 18/1955.9%
5 corners/matchCornersseason · 18/195.84 corners/match
4.28 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 18/194.26 corners/match
2.06 cards/matchCardsseason · 18/19▲1.47 cards/match
15.4 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 18/1911.3 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
33%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 18/1932%
72%Scoring frequencyseason · 18/19▲79%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Bologna67.5
Atalanta72.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Bologna62.5
Atalanta70
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Bologna59.2
Atalanta64.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Bologna42.5
Atalanta62.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Bologna71.2
Atalanta17.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Bologna75
Atalanta92.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Bologna69.4
Atalanta63.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
0.6 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲1.2 goals/match
1.6 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲0.4 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
11.4 shots/matchShots5/5▲12.8 shots/match
4 shots/match▲Shots on target5/53.8 shots/match
51.4%Possession5/553.4%
3 corners/matchCorners5/56.4 corners/match
2.4 cards/matchCards5/51.2 cards/match
16.6 fouls/matchFouls5/514.2 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
1.2 goals/match▲Goals scored10/101 goals/match
1.2 goals/matchGoals allowed10/101.2 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
14 shots/match▲Shots10/1013 shots/match
4.4 shots/match▲Shots on target10/103.8 shots/match
55.2%Possession10/1056.2%
4.3 corners/matchCorners10/105.2 corners/match
1.8 cards/matchCards10/101.3 cards/match
15.2 fouls/matchFouls10/1012.5 fouls/match

Window

Season

18 / 19 matches
1.39 goals/match▲Goals scored18/191.21 goals/match
1.06 goals/matchGoals allowed18/19▲1 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13.2 shots/matchShots18/19▲14.3 shots/match
4.22 shots/matchShots on target18/194.26 shots/match
55.7%Possession18/1955.9%
5 corners/matchCorners18/195.84 corners/match
2.06 cards/matchCards18/191.47 cards/match
15.4 fouls/matchFouls18/1911.3 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

9 / 9 matches
1.22 goals/matchGoals scored9/91.22 goals/match
0.89 goals/match▲Goals allowed9/91.11 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
15.8 shots/match▲Shots9/912.2 shots/match
4.44 shots/match▲Shots on target9/93.67 shots/match
56.1%Possession9/956.7%
5.44 corners/matchCorners9/95 corners/match
1.56 cards/matchCards9/91.67 cards/match
13.7 fouls/matchFouls9/911.4 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

2.91 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/13.91 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples18 / 19home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Wed, 7 Jan 2026, 21:30 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsBolognaAtalanta
CompetitionSerie A
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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