PitchMath
Serie A · 2025Thu, 15 Jan 2026, 19:45 UTCFull timeStadio Giuseppe SinigagliaFull-time recap

Como

LWWWD
1–3Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricComoAC Milan
Shots18 shots/match▲7 shots/match
Shots on target8 shots/match▲4 shots/match
Possession68%32%
Corners8 corners/match4 corners/match
Fouls7 fouls/match5 fouls/match
Yellow cards1 cards/match0 cards/match▲

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Como's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Como, AC Milan. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Como's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Como's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.8 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.4 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.8 goals/match1.4 goals/match1.1 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

weak

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Como, AC Milan.

5.24 days▲Rest daysComo · AC Milan4.24 days
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

MetricComoAC MilanBaseline
Rest days5.24 days4.24 days—
Matches last 14 days3 matches3 matches—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

AC Milan have a visible away split

moderate

AC Milan's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

11 shots/match▲ShotsAway only · Season13.9 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots11 shots/match13.9 shots/match12.2 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Como favored in 3 of 14 directional metrics · AC Milan in 3 · 8 too close

1.4 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 20/20▲1.65 goals/match
0.8 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 20/200.8 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
14 shots/matchShotsseason · 20/2013.9 shots/match
10.3 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 20/2011.3 shots/match
5.05 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 20/204.75 shots/match
3.7 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 20/203.55 shots/match
61.1%Possessionseason · 20/2050.9%
4.2 corners/matchCornersseason · 20/204.75 corners/match
3.6 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 20/204.7 corners/match
2.4 cards/matchCardsseason · 20/20▲1.6 cards/match
14.3 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 20/209.55 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
45%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 20/2045%
70%Scoring frequencyseason · 20/20▲95%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Como97.5
AC Milan52.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Como80.8
AC Milan82.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Como80.8
AC Milan76.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Como27.5
AC Milan77.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Como75
AC Milan11.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Como42.5
AC Milan62.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Como71.2
AC Milan55
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1.8 goals/matchGoals scored5/51.8 goals/match
0.8 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲0.6 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
14.4 shots/matchShots5/514.8 shots/match
5.4 shots/match▲Shots on target5/54.8 shots/match
64.8%Possession5/549.4%
5.2 corners/matchCorners5/57 corners/match
2.2 cards/matchCards5/51.6 cards/match
14 fouls/matchFouls5/58.8 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
1.6 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲1.8 goals/match
1 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲0.9 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
14.3 shots/matchShots10/1013.6 shots/match
5.7 shots/match▲Shots on target10/104.7 shots/match
63.2%Possession10/1050.9%
5.1 corners/matchCorners10/105.1 corners/match
2.2 cards/matchCards10/101.6 cards/match
13.2 fouls/matchFouls10/109.2 fouls/match

Window

Season

20 / 20 matches
1.4 goals/matchGoals scored20/20▲1.65 goals/match
0.8 goals/matchGoals allowed20/200.8 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
14 shots/matchShots20/2013.9 shots/match
5.05 shots/match▲Shots on target20/204.75 shots/match
61.1%Possession20/2050.9%
4.2 corners/matchCorners20/204.75 corners/match
2.4 cards/matchCards20/201.6 cards/match
14.3 fouls/matchFouls20/209.55 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

10 / 10 matches
1.4 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲1.7 goals/match
0.7 goals/matchGoals allowed10/100.7 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
14.6 shots/match▲Shots10/1011 shots/match
6 shots/match▲Shots on target10/104.2 shots/match
61.7%Possession10/1049.9%
4.4 corners/matchCorners10/103.7 corners/match
2.3 cards/matchCards10/101.3 cards/match
13.2 fouls/matchFouls10/108.4 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

5.24 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/14.24 days
3 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/13 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples20 / 20home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Thu, 15 Jan 2026, 23:45 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsComoAC Milan
CompetitionSerie A
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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