PitchMath
Serie A · 2025Sat, 31 Jan 2026, 19:45 UTCFull timeUnipol DomusFull-time recap
4–0Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricCagliariHellas Verona
Shots13 shots/match▲9 shots/match
Shots on target7 shots/match▲3 shots/match
Possession62%38%
Corners6 corners/match3 corners/match
Fouls9 fouls/match14 fouls/match
Yellow cards0 cards/match▲2 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Cagliari's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Each team's season fouls average is above the competition baseline. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Cagliari's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Cagliari's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.8 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.22 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.8 goals/match1.22 goals/match1.17 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Both teams have elevated fouls records

moderate

Each team's season fouls average is above the competition baseline.

15.5 fouls/match▲FoulsCagliari · Hellas Verona16 fouls/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Both team averages are compared with the same competition baseline.

Window: season

MetricCagliariHellas VeronaBaseline
Fouls15.5 fouls/match16 fouls/match13.2 fouls/match

Caveat: A shared historical pattern is descriptive and may not repeat in one fixture.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0Cagliari
1Draws
0Hellas Verona
Hellas Verona — Cagliari · Serie A2–2

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Cagliari favored in 4 of 14 directional metrics · Hellas Verona in 4 · 6 too close

1.22 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 23/230.78 goals/match
1.35 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 23/231.78 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
10.2 shots/matchShotsseason · 23/23▲11.4 shots/match
13.4 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 23/2313.4 shots/match
3.61 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 23/23▲4.22 shots/match
5.04 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 23/23▲4.35 shots/match
45.2%Possessionseason · 23/2340.1%
3.43 corners/matchCornersseason · 23/233.65 corners/match
5.65 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 23/23▲4.83 corners/match
2.3 cards/matchCardsseason · 23/232.35 cards/match
15.5 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 23/2316 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
22%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 23/2317%
70%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 23/2352%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Cagliari27.5
Hellas Verona2.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Cagliari30.8
Hellas Verona37.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Cagliari25.8
Hellas Verona24.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Cagliari12.5
Hellas Verona92.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Cagliari86.2
Hellas Verona95
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Cagliari12.5
Hellas Verona27.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Cagliari35
Hellas Verona56.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1.8 goals/match▲Goals scored5/50.6 goals/match
1.2 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/52.2 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.4 shots/match▲Shots5/510.4 shots/match
4.4 shots/match▲Shots on target5/53.6 shots/match
45.2%Possession5/542%
3.4 corners/matchCorners5/53.6 corners/match
2 cards/matchCards5/51.6 cards/match
14.8 fouls/matchFouls5/512 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
1.5 goals/match▲Goals scored10/101 goals/match
1.2 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/102.1 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
11.4 shots/match▲Shots10/1010.4 shots/match
4.1 shots/match▲Shots on target10/103.6 shots/match
46.3%Possession10/1040.7%
3.5 corners/matchCorners10/103.5 corners/match
1.9 cards/matchCards10/101.9 cards/match
14.5 fouls/matchFouls10/1013.9 fouls/match

Window

Season

23 / 23 matches
1.22 goals/match▲Goals scored23/230.78 goals/match
1.35 goals/match▲Goals allowed23/231.78 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
10.2 shots/matchShots23/23▲11.4 shots/match
3.61 shots/matchShots on target23/23▲4.22 shots/match
45.2%Possession23/2340.1%
3.43 corners/matchCorners23/233.65 corners/match
2.3 cards/matchCards23/232.35 cards/match
15.5 fouls/matchFouls23/2316 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

11 / 12 matches
1.36 goals/match▲Goals scored11/120.58 goals/match
1.18 goals/match▲Goals allowed11/121.83 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
9.64 shots/matchShots11/12▲11 shots/match
3.82 shots/matchShots on target11/123.67 shots/match
46.5%Possession11/1237.9%
3.73 corners/matchCorners11/123 corners/match
2.09 cards/matchCards11/122.58 cards/match
15.5 fouls/matchFouls11/1216.9 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7.11 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/15 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples23 / 23home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 31 Jan 2026, 23:45 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsCagliariHellas Verona
CompetitionSerie A
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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