PitchMath
Premier League · 2025Sat, 17 Jan 2026, 15:00 UTCFull timeAnfieldFull-time recap
1–1Full-time recap

Burnley

DDLLD

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricLiverpoolBurnley
Shots32 shots/match▲7 shots/match
Shots on target11 shots/match▲1 shots/match
Possession73%27%
Corners9 corners/match1 corners/match
Fouls8 fouls/match10 fouls/match
Yellow cards1 cards/match▲2 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Liverpool's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. A second useful context is: Liverpool's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Liverpool show a distinct attacking-volume record

strong

Liverpool's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

15.5 shots/match▲ShotsLiverpool · Burnley8.82 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricLiverpoolBurnleyBaseline
Shots15.5 shots/match8.82 shots/match11.9 shots/match
Shots against10.6 shots/match17 shots/match12.1 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Liverpool's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Liverpool's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.5 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1 goals/match1.5 goals/match1.44 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

The teams have contrasting possession records

strong

Liverpool have recorded the higher season possession share.

61.5%▲PossessionLiverpool · Burnley40.6%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 20.9 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricLiverpoolBurnleyBaseline
Possession61.5%40.6%51%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

1Liverpool
0Draws
0Burnley
Burnley — Liverpool · Premier League0–1

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Liverpool favored in 9 of 14 directional metrics · Burnley in 0 · 5 too close

1.5 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 22/221.05 goals/match
1.32 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 22/221.91 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
15.5 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 22/228.82 shots/match
10.6 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 22/2217 shots/match
4.32 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 22/222.91 shots/match
3.59 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 22/225.86 shots/match
61.5%Possessionseason · 22/2240.6%
5.32 corners/matchCornersseason · 22/223.55 corners/match
4.32 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 22/226.14 corners/match
1.68 cards/matchCardsseason · 22/221.73 cards/match
9.36 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 22/2210 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
32%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 22/2214%
82%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 22/2268%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Liverpool97.5
Burnley2.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Liverpool70.8
Burnley7.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Liverpool76.7
Burnley5.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Liverpool62.5
Burnley12.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Liverpool17.5
Burnley40
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Liverpool60
Burnley7.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Liverpool54.4
Burnley13.1
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1 goals/match▲Goals scored5/50.8 goals/match
0.8 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/51.6 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
16.6 shots/match▲Shots5/510 shots/match
4.2 shots/match▲Shots on target5/51.8 shots/match
63.6%Possession5/540.8%
6.2 corners/matchCorners5/53.2 corners/match
0.8 cards/matchCards5/52 cards/match
7.2 fouls/matchFouls5/510.6 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
1.5 goals/match▲Goals scored10/100.9 goals/match
0.9 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/101.8 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
15.7 shots/match▲Shots10/109.6 shots/match
4.5 shots/match▲Shots on target10/102.7 shots/match
61.1%Possession10/1042.7%
5.2 corners/matchCorners10/104.7 corners/match
1.2 cards/matchCards10/101.7 cards/match
8.4 fouls/matchFouls10/109.9 fouls/match

Window

Season

22 / 22 matches
1.5 goals/match▲Goals scored22/221.05 goals/match
1.32 goals/match▲Goals allowed22/221.91 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
15.5 shots/match▲Shots22/228.82 shots/match
4.32 shots/match▲Shots on target22/222.91 shots/match
61.5%Possession22/2240.6%
5.32 corners/matchCorners22/223.55 corners/match
1.68 cards/matchCards22/221.73 cards/match
9.36 fouls/matchFouls22/2210 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

11 / 11 matches
1.45 goals/match▲Goals scored11/111.18 goals/match
1 goals/match▲Goals allowed11/112.45 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
18.3 shots/match▲Shots11/118.36 shots/match
5.18 shots/match▲Shots on target11/113.18 shots/match
62.5%Possession11/1138.7%
5.82 corners/matchCorners11/113.82 corners/match
1.09 cards/matchCards11/112.09 cards/match
8.91 fouls/matchFouls11/1110.5 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

8.79 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/19.78 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples22 / 22home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 17 Jan 2026, 19:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsLiverpoolBurnley
CompetitionPremier League
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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