UEFA Champions League · 2025Wed, 21 Jan 2026, 20:00 UTCFull timeOrange VelodromeFull-time recap

Marseille

WLLWW

0–3Full-time recap

Liverpool

LWWLW

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Marseille	Liverpool
Shots	15 shots/match▲	11 shots/match
Shots on target	4 shots/match▲	3 shots/match
Expected goals	0.88 xG/match	1.49 xG/match▲
Possession	58%	42%
Corners	7 corners/match	4 corners/match
Fouls	8 fouls/match	12 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Marseille: 15 shots, 4 on target, 0.88 xG. Liverpool: 12 shots, 4 on target, 1.64 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Marseille 0.88 xG · Liverpool 1.64 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Marseille's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: Liverpool's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. Limitation: Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Marseille's recent record differs from the season

weak

Marseille's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1.2 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.57 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	1.2 goals/match	1.57 goals/match	1.5 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Liverpool show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Liverpool's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

13.1 shots/match▲ShotsMarseille · Liverpool17.3 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

Metric	Marseille	Liverpool	Baseline
Shots	13.1 shots/match	17.3 shots/match	13.6 shots/match
Shots against	14.6 shots/match	9.14 shots/match	13.3 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Liverpool have a visible away split

weak

Liverpool's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

14.3 shots/match▲ShotsAway only · Season17.3 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

Metric	Away only	Season	Baseline
Shots	14.3 shots/match	17.3 shots/match	13.6 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Marseille favored in 0 of 14 directional metrics · Liverpool in 11 · 3 too close

1.57 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 7/7▲2 goals/match

1.57 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 7/7▲1.14 goals/match

1.09 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 7/7▲2.24 xG/match

1.49 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 7/7▲0.87 xG/match

13.1 shots/matchShotsseason · 7/7▲17.3 shots/match

14.6 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 7/7▲9.14 shots/match

4.86 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 7/7▲7.29 shots/match

6.43 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 7/7▲3.29 shots/match

54.3%Possessionseason · 7/754.6%

4.57 corners/matchCornersseason · 7/76.57 corners/match

4.71 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 7/7▲4.29 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

13.9 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 7/710.6 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

14%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 7/7▲43%

71%Scoring frequencyseason · 7/7▲86%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Marseille77.4

Liverpool79.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Marseille48.1

Liverpool80.3

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Marseille28.9

Liverpool85.9

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Marseille25

Liverpool77.4

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Marseille84.5

Liverpool39.3

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Marseille50

Liverpool89.3

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Marseille56.5

Liverpool74.7

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches

1.2 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲2.2 goals/match

1.8 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲1 goals/match

1.15 xG/matchExpected goals5/5▲2.25 xG/match

13.6 shots/matchShots5/5▲17 shots/match

4.6 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲8.2 shots/match

55%Possession5/551.8%

5.6 corners/matchCorners5/56.4 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

13 fouls/matchFouls5/510.6 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

7 / 7 matches

1.57 goals/matchGoals scored7/7▲2 goals/match

1.57 goals/matchGoals allowed7/7▲1.14 goals/match

1.09 xG/matchExpected goals7/7▲2.24 xG/match

13.1 shots/matchShots7/7▲17.3 shots/match

4.86 shots/matchShots on target7/7▲7.29 shots/match

54.3%Possession7/754.6%

4.57 corners/matchCorners7/76.57 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

13.9 fouls/matchFouls7/710.6 fouls/match

Window

Season

7 / 7 matches

1.57 goals/matchGoals scored7/7▲2 goals/match

1.57 goals/matchGoals allowed7/7▲1.14 goals/match

1.09 xG/matchExpected goals7/7▲2.24 xG/match

13.1 shots/matchShots7/7▲17.3 shots/match

4.86 shots/matchShots on target7/7▲7.29 shots/match

54.3%Possession7/754.6%

4.57 corners/matchCorners7/76.57 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

13.9 fouls/matchFouls7/710.6 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

4 / 4 matches

1.5 goals/matchGoals scored4/4▲2.25 goals/match

1.25 goals/matchGoals allowed4/4▲0.5 goals/match

1.22 xG/matchExpected goals4/4▲2 xG/match

14.3 shots/matchShots4/414.3 shots/match

5.25 shots/matchShots on target4/4▲6.5 shots/match

54.3%Possession4/456%

6 corners/matchCorners4/46 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

14.3 fouls/matchFouls4/410.5 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

43 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/143 days

0 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/10 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidencelimited

Season samples7 / 7home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.

Analysis cutoff: Thu, 22 Jan 2026, 00:00 UTC · analysis-v4