PitchMath
Ligue 1 · 2025Orange Vélodrome

Olympique de Marseille 3–1 RC Lens · Ligue 1

3–1Historical match

RC Lens

WWWWW

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Olympique de Marseille won 3–1.

Shots
107
Shots on target
52
Expected goals
0.880.91
Possession
54%46%

Full time

What the match recorded

Marseille beat Lens 3–1. Recorded in this match (Marseille – Lens): shots 10–7, shots on target 5–2, expected goals 0.88–0.91, possession 54%–46%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Marseille's recent record differs from the season

weak

Marseille's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1.8 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season2.32 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.8 goals/match2.32 goals/match1.4 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Marseille have recorded the higher season possession share.

59.7% ●PossessionMarseille · Lens49.1%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 10.6 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricMarseilleLensBaseline
Possession59.7%49.1%49.2%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots10 shots7 shotsOlympique de Marseille 10 shots, RC Lens 7 shots
  • Shots on target5 shots2 shotsOlympique de Marseille 5 shots, RC Lens 2 shots
  • Expected goals0.88 xG0.91 xGOlympique de Marseille 0.88 xG, RC Lens 0.91 xG
  • Possession54%46%Olympique de Marseille 54%, RC Lens 46%
  • Corners2 corners2 cornersOlympique de Marseille 2 corners, RC Lens 2 corners
  • Fouls18 fouls16 foulsOlympique de Marseille 18 fouls, RC Lens 16 fouls
  • Yellow cards0 cards3 cardsOlympique de Marseille 0 cards, RC Lens 3 cards

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Amine Gouiri · Marseille · 12′ · 0.02 xG · on targetOdsonne Édouard · Lens · 15′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedAdrien Thomasson · Lens · 45′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedPierre-Emile Højbjerg · Marseille · 70′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedAbdallah Sima · Lens · 89′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedAnthony Bermont · Lens · 87′ · 0.03 xG · on targetPierre-Emile Højbjerg · Marseille · 25′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedMason Greenwood · Marseille · 62′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedAmine Gouiri · Marseille · 69′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedIgor Paixão · Marseille · 81′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedAmine Gouiri · Marseille · 3′ · 0.06 xG · goalEthan Nwaneri · Marseille · 54′ · 0.06 xG · on targetEthan Nwaneri · Marseille · 13′ · 0.08 xG · goalOdsonne Édouard · Lens · 28′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedAdrien Thomasson · Lens · 46′ · 0.22 xG · off target or blockedAmine Gouiri · Marseille · 75′ · 0.49 xG · goalRayan Fofana · Lens · 85′ · 0.49 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Marseille: 10 shots, 5 on target, 0.89 xG. Lens: 7 shots, 2 on target, 0.89 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.510′HT90′Amine Gouiri · Marseille · 3′Ethan Nwaneri · Marseille · 13′Amine Gouiri · Marseille · 75′Rayan Fofana · Lens · 85′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Marseille 0.89 xG · Lens 0.89 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

2Olympique de Marseille
0Draws
3RC Lens
RC Lens — Olympique de Marseille · Ligue 12–1
Olympique de Marseille — RC Lens · Ligue 10–1
RC Lens — Olympique de Marseille · Ligue 11–3
Olympique de Marseille — RC Lens · Ligue 12–1
RC Lens — Olympique de Marseille · Ligue 11–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Olympique de Marseille favored in 5 of 11 directional metrics · RC Lens in 3 · 3 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Olympique de Marseille19 matchesRC Lens19 matches
2.32 goals/match ▲Goals scored19/191.74 goals/match
1.05 goals/matchGoals allowed19/19▲ 0.84 goals/match
1.86 xG/matchExpected goals19/191.88 xG/match
14.4 shots/matchShots19/1913.9 shots/match
6 shots/match ▲Shots on target19/195.21 shots/match
59.7% ●Possession19/1949.1%
5.11 corners/matchCorners19/19● 5.68 corners/match
2.16 cards/matchCards19/192.21 cards/match
12.2 fouls/matchFouls19/1913.7 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples19 / 19home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 25 Jan 2026, 00:05 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Ligue 1

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsOlympique de MarseilleRC Lens
CompetitionLigue 1Ligue 1 2025/26
Head-to-headOlympique de Marseille — RC Lens
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

Make a graphic from this match

Creator Studio builds a branded post from this match's recorded data, with its evidence grade and source cutoff carried into the export.

Turn this match into a graphicReady-made from PitchMath data · No sign-up required