PitchMath
Ligue 1 · 2025Sat, 24 Jan 2026, 16:00 UTCFull timeRoazhon ParkFull-time recap

Rennes

WLWWD
0–2Full-time recap

Lorient

WWDDW

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricRennesLorient
Shots22 shots/match▲6 shots/match
Shots on target5 shots/match▲4 shots/match
Possession69%31%
Corners9 corners/match3 corners/match
Fouls18 fouls/match7 fouls/match
Yellow cards2 cards/match0 cards/match▲

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Djaoui Cissé · Rennes · 44′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedAlidu Seidu · Rennes · 17′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedAlidu Seidu · Rennes · 45′ · 0.02 xG · on targetDjaoui Cissé · Rennes · 47′ · 0.02 xG · on targetQuentin Merlin · Rennes · 68′ · 0.02 xG · on targetMousa Tamari · Rennes · 90′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedEsteban Lepaul · Rennes · 32′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedAhmadou Bamba Dieng · Lorient · 73′ · 0.03 xG · on targetJean-Victor Makengo · Lorient · 3′ · 0.04 xG · goalBreel Embolo · Rennes · 15′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedMahdi Camara · Rennes · 42′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedAlidu Seidu · Rennes · 45′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedLilian Brassier · Rennes · 69′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedEsteban Lepaul · Rennes · 37′ · 0.05 xG · on targetEsteban Lepaul · Rennes · 35′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedQuentin Merlin · Rennes · 69′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedBreel Embolo · Rennes · 73′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedIgor Silva · Lorient · 25′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedValentin Rongier · Rennes · 39′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedMahdi Camara · Rennes · 72′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedEsteban Lepaul · Rennes · 27′ · 0.11 xG · on targetNoah Cadiou · Lorient · 13′ · 0.12 xG · on targetMohamed Kader Meite · Rennes · 69′ · 0.18 xG · off target or blockedElias Legendre Quiñonez Zae · Rennes · 90′ · 0.21 xG · off target or blockedJérémy Jacquet · Rennes · 72′ · 0.23 xG · off target or blockedNoah Cadiou · Lorient · 85′ · 0.23 xG · off target or blockedLilian Brassier · Rennes · 48′ · 0.36 xG · off target or blockedPablo Pagis · Lorient · 77′ · 0.75 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Rennes: 22 shots, 5 on target, 1.82 xG. Lorient: 6 shots, 4 on target, 1.25 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

0120′HT90′Jean-Victor Makengo · Lorient · 3′Pablo Pagis · Lorient · 77′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Rennes 1.82 xG · Lorient 1.25 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Rennes's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: Rennes's home-only shot average is above their full-season average. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Rennes's recent record differs from the season

weak

Rennes's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1.2 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.58 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.2 goals/match1.58 goals/match1.4 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Rennes have a visible home split

moderate

Rennes's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

16.7 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season13.5 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots16.7 shots/match13.5 shots/match11.9 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Rennes have recorded the higher season possession share.

52.1%▲PossessionRennes · Lorient42.5%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 9.6 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricRennesLorientBaseline
Possession52.1%42.5%49.3%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0Rennes
0Draws
1Lorient
Lorient — Rennes · Ligue 14–0

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Rennes favored in 7 of 14 directional metrics · Lorient in 3 · 4 too close

1.58 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 19/191.32 goals/match
1.42 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 19/191.58 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
13.5 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 19/1911.9 shots/match
13.8 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 19/19▲10.5 shots/match
4.68 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 19/193.95 shots/match
4.26 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 19/19▲4 shots/match
52.1%Possessionseason · 19/1942.5%
5.84 corners/matchCornersseason · 19/193.16 corners/match
4.95 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 19/195.26 corners/match
2 cards/matchCardsseason · 19/19▲1.84 cards/match
12.3 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 19/1910 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
26%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 19/1921%
79%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 19/1968%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Rennes58.3
Lorient13.9
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Rennes71.3
Lorient43.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Rennes38
Lorient54.6
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Rennes69.4
Lorient86.1
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Rennes44.5
Lorient13.9
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Rennes86.1
Lorient8.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Rennes69.4
Lorient26.4
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1.2 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲1.4 goals/match
1.8 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲0.4 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
14.8 shots/match▲Shots5/511.8 shots/match
4.6 shots/match▲Shots on target5/54.2 shots/match
55.8%Possession5/537.8%
7.4 corners/matchCorners5/52.8 corners/match
2 cards/matchCards5/50.6 cards/match
14.2 fouls/matchFouls5/58 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
1.8 goals/match▲Goals scored10/101.3 goals/match
1.3 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲0.9 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13.4 shots/match▲Shots10/1011.1 shots/match
4.8 shots/match▲Shots on target10/103.6 shots/match
51.1%Possession10/1039%
6.7 corners/matchCorners10/103 corners/match
1.6 cards/matchCards10/100.7 cards/match
12.2 fouls/matchFouls10/108.5 fouls/match

Window

Season

19 / 19 matches
1.58 goals/match▲Goals scored19/191.32 goals/match
1.42 goals/match▲Goals allowed19/191.58 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13.5 shots/match▲Shots19/1911.9 shots/match
4.68 shots/match▲Shots on target19/193.95 shots/match
52.1%Possession19/1942.5%
5.84 corners/matchCorners19/193.16 corners/match
2 cards/matchCards19/191.84 cards/match
12.3 fouls/matchFouls19/1910 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

10 / 10 matches
1.9 goals/match▲Goals scored10/100.7 goals/match
1.1 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/101.5 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
16.7 shots/match▲Shots10/1010.5 shots/match
5.8 shots/match▲Shots on target10/102.9 shots/match
52.8%Possession10/1042%
6.1 corners/matchCorners10/103.3 corners/match
2 cards/matchCards10/101.7 cards/match
13.6 fouls/matchFouls10/109.6 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

5.99 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17.92 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples19 / 19home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 24 Jan 2026, 20:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsRennesLorient
CompetitionLigue 1
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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