PitchMath
Ligue 1 · 2025Sun, 18 Jan 2026, 16:15 UTCFull timeRoazhon ParkFull-time recap

Rennes

WWLWW
1–1Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricRennesLe Havre
Shots19 shots/match▲7 shots/match
Shots on target7 shots/match▲4 shots/match
Possession54%46%
Corners10 corners/match6 corners/match
Fouls18 fouls/match14 fouls/match
Yellow cards1 cards/match▲4 cards/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Quentin Merlin · Rennes · 44′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedMousa Tamari · Rennes · 51′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedQuentin Merlin · Rennes · 65′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedLilian Brassier · Rennes · 90′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedSimon Ebonog · Le Havre · 33′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedMahdi Camara · Rennes · 47′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedSofiane Boufal · Le Havre · 82′ · 0.03 xG · on targetValentin Rongier · Rennes · 90′ · 0.03 xG · on targetAlly Samatta · Le Havre · 38′ · 0.04 xG · on targetEsteban Lepaul · Rennes · 45′ · 0.04 xG · on targetPrzemysław Frankowski · Rennes · 52′ · 0.04 xG · on targetRassoul Ndiaye · Le Havre · 69′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedMousa Tamari · Rennes · 18′ · 0.06 xG · on targetMahdi Camara · Rennes · 86′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedFelix Mambimbi · Le Havre · 23′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedMohamed Kader Meite · Rennes · 74′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedEsteban Lepaul · Rennes · 51′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedEsteban Lepaul · Rennes · 6′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedEsteban Lepaul · Rennes · 61′ · 0.19 xG · off target or blockedLudovic Blas · Rennes · 90′ · 0.21 xG · off target or blockedFelix Mambimbi · Le Havre · 69′ · 0.24 xG · goalAyumu Seko · Le Havre · 32′ · 0.29 xG · on targetEsteban Lepaul · Rennes · 50′ · 0.33 xG · on targetBreel Embolo · Rennes · 86′ · 0.40 xG · goalMohamed Kader Meite · Rennes · 80′ · 0.42 xG · off target or blockedMohamed Kader Meite · Rennes · 75′ · 0.46 xG · on target
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Rennes: 19 shots, 7 on target, 2.62 xG. Le Havre: 7 shots, 4 on target, 0.74 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.530′HT90′Breel Embolo · Rennes · 86′Felix Mambimbi · Le Havre · 69′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Rennes 2.62 xG · Le Havre 0.74 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Le Havre's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: Rennes's home-only shot average is above their full-season average. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Le Havre's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Le Havre's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.6 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.89 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.6 goals/match0.89 goals/match1.42 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Rennes have a visible home split

moderate

Rennes's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

16.1 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season13.1 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots16.1 shots/match13.1 shots/match12.1 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0Rennes
1Draws
0Le Havre
Le Havre — Rennes · Ligue 12–2

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Rennes favored in 4 of 14 directional metrics · Le Havre in 3 · 7 too close

1.67 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 18/180.89 goals/match
1.39 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 18/181.33 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
13.1 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 18/1811.4 shots/match
14.2 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 18/18▲12.2 shots/match
4.67 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 18/183.83 shots/match
4.28 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 18/18▲4 shots/match
51.2%Possessionseason · 18/1845.9%
5.67 corners/matchCornersseason · 18/184.61 corners/match
5.06 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 18/18▲4.67 corners/match
2 cards/matchCardsseason · 18/182 cards/match
11.9 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 18/1814.2 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
28%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 18/1828%
83%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 18/1861%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Rennes58.3
Le Havre36.1
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Rennes73.1
Le Havre23.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Rennes39.8
Le Havre52.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Rennes69.4
Le Havre58.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Rennes40.3
Le Havre62.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Rennes75
Le Havre50
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Rennes65.3
Le Havre49.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1.4 goals/match▲Goals scored5/50.6 goals/match
1.4 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲0.8 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.2 shots/match▲Shots5/511 shots/match
4 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲4.6 shots/match
51.6%Possession5/545.2%
6.2 corners/matchCorners5/55.8 corners/match
1.6 cards/matchCards5/52 cards/match
12.2 fouls/matchFouls5/514.4 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
1.9 goals/match▲Goals scored10/100.6 goals/match
1.3 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲0.8 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13.1 shots/match▲Shots10/1011.5 shots/match
5 shots/match▲Shots on target10/104.1 shots/match
50%Possession10/1047.5%
6.5 corners/matchCorners10/105.3 corners/match
1.9 cards/matchCards10/102 cards/match
11.7 fouls/matchFouls10/1013.3 fouls/match

Window

Season

18 / 18 matches
1.67 goals/match▲Goals scored18/180.89 goals/match
1.39 goals/matchGoals allowed18/181.33 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13.1 shots/match▲Shots18/1811.4 shots/match
4.67 shots/match▲Shots on target18/183.83 shots/match
51.2%Possession18/1845.9%
5.67 corners/matchCorners18/184.61 corners/match
2 cards/matchCards18/182 cards/match
11.9 fouls/matchFouls18/1814.2 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

9 / 9 matches
2.11 goals/match▲Goals scored9/90.56 goals/match
1 goals/match▲Goals allowed9/91.67 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
16.1 shots/match▲Shots9/99.33 shots/match
5.89 shots/match▲Shots on target9/93.22 shots/match
51%Possession9/941.9%
5.78 corners/matchCorners9/93.89 corners/match
2 cards/matchCards9/92.44 cards/match
13.1 fouls/matchFouls9/913.9 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

14.8 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/114 days
0 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples18 / 18home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 18 Jan 2026, 20:15 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsRennesLe Havre
CompetitionLigue 1
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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