PitchMath
Ligue 1 · 2025Sun, 18 Jan 2026, 16:15 UTCFull timeStade de la BeaujoireFull-time recap

Nantes

DLLLW
1–2Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricNantesParis FC
Shots5 shots/match10 shots/match▲
Shots on target1 shots/match3 shots/match▲
Possession48%52%
Corners1 corners/match2 corners/match
Fouls16 fouls/match14 fouls/match
Yellow cards1 cards/match▲3 cards/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Ilan Kebbal · Paris FC · 19′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedIbrahima Sissoko · Nantes · 44′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedHamari Traoré · Paris FC · 58′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedIlan Kebbal · Paris FC · 63′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedJean-Philippe Krasso · Paris FC · 83′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedAmady Camara · Nantes · 90′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedAlimami Gory · Paris FC · 24′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedVincent Marchetti · Paris FC · 84′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedIlan Kebbal · Paris FC · 6′ · 0.04 xG · goalMaxime López · Paris FC · 17′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedMatthis Abline · Nantes · 30′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedJohann Lepenant · Nantes · 45′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedTimothée Kolodziejczak · Paris FC · 6′ · 0.11 xG · on targetMatthis Abline · Nantes · 50′ · 0.18 xG · goalLuca Koleosho · Paris FC · 78′ · 0.66 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Nantes: 5 shots, 1 on target, 0.35 xG. Paris FC: 10 shots, 3 on target, 0.98 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.510′HT90′Matthis Abline · Nantes · 50′Ilan Kebbal · Paris FC · 6′Luca Koleosho · Paris FC · 78′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Nantes 0.35 xG · Paris FC 0.98 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Paris FC's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: Paris FC's away-only shot average is below their full-season average. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Paris FC's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Paris FC's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.8 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.33 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.8 goals/match1.33 goals/match1.42 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Paris FC have a visible away split

moderate

Paris FC's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

9.8 shots/match▲ShotsAway only · Season11.9 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots9.8 shots/match11.9 shots/match12.1 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Paris FC show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Paris FC's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

9.78 shots/match▲ShotsNantes · Paris FC11.9 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricNantesParis FCBaseline
Shots9.78 shots/match11.9 shots/match12.1 shots/match
Shots against15.9 shots/match11.4 shots/match11.9 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

1Nantes
0Draws
0Paris FC
Paris FC — Nantes · Ligue 11–2

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Nantes favored in 2 of 14 directional metrics · Paris FC in 7 · 5 too close

0.94 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 18/18▲1.33 goals/match
1.67 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 18/181.78 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
9.78 shots/matchShotsseason · 18/18▲11.9 shots/match
15.9 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 18/18▲11.4 shots/match
2.89 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 18/18▲3.56 shots/match
5.28 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 18/18▲3.94 shots/match
42.8%Possessionseason · 18/1853.8%
3 corners/matchCornersseason · 18/184.39 corners/match
6.33 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 18/18▲5 corners/match
1.78 cards/match▲Cardsseason · 18/182.11 cards/match
12.3 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 18/1811.3 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
17%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 18/1817%
61%Scoring frequencyseason · 18/18▲78%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Nantes13.9
Paris FC75
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Nantes10.2
Paris FC37.9
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Nantes16.7
Paris FC48.1
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Nantes25
Paris FC19.4
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Nantes34.8
Paris FC34.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Nantes2.8
Paris FC36.1
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Nantes18.1
Paris FC31.9
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1 goals/match▲Goals scored5/50.8 goals/match
2.2 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲1.4 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
8.6 shots/matchShots5/5▲9.8 shots/match
4 shots/match▲Shots on target5/52.4 shots/match
40%Possession5/551.6%
1.6 corners/matchCorners5/53.2 corners/match
2.2 cards/matchCards5/52 cards/match
13.2 fouls/matchFouls5/510.8 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
1.2 goals/match▲Goals scored10/101.1 goals/match
2.1 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲1.7 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
10.2 shots/matchShots10/10▲10.9 shots/match
3.5 shots/match▲Shots on target10/102.6 shots/match
42.3%Possession10/1052.3%
2.3 corners/matchCorners10/104.2 corners/match
2.1 cards/matchCards10/102.8 cards/match
13 fouls/matchFouls10/1011.5 fouls/match

Window

Season

18 / 18 matches
0.94 goals/matchGoals scored18/18▲1.33 goals/match
1.67 goals/match▲Goals allowed18/181.78 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
9.78 shots/matchShots18/18▲11.9 shots/match
2.89 shots/matchShots on target18/18▲3.56 shots/match
42.8%Possession18/1853.8%
3 corners/matchCorners18/184.39 corners/match
1.78 cards/matchCards18/182.11 cards/match
12.3 fouls/matchFouls18/1811.3 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

9 / 10 matches
1 goals/matchGoals scored9/10▲1.2 goals/match
1.89 goals/matchGoals allowed9/10▲1.7 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
10.1 shots/matchShots9/109.8 shots/match
2.78 shots/matchShots on target9/10▲3.3 shots/match
43.3%Possession9/1050.5%
2.89 corners/matchCorners9/102.9 corners/match
1.44 cards/matchCards9/101.7 cards/match
11.9 fouls/matchFouls9/1010.9 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

14.1 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/113.9 days
0 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples18 / 18home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 18 Jan 2026, 20:15 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsNantesParis FC
CompetitionLigue 1
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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