PitchMath
Ligue 1 · 2025Stade de la Beaujoire

Nantes 1–2 Paris FC · Ligue 1

Nantes

DLLLW
1–2Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Paris FC won 1–2.

Shots
510
Shots on target
13
Expected goals
0.360.97
Possession
48%52%

Full time

What the match recorded

Paris FC beat Nantes 2–1. Recorded in this match (Nantes – Paris FC): shots 5–10, shots on target 1–3, expected goals 0.36–0.97, possession 48%–52%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Paris FC's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Paris FC's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.8 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.33 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.8 goals/match1.33 goals/match1.42 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Paris FC have a visible away split

moderate

Paris FC's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

9.8 shots/match ▲ShotsAway only · Season11.9 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots9.8 shots/match11.9 shots/match12.1 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Paris FC show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Paris FC's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

9.78 shots/match ▲ShotsNantes · Paris FC11.9 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricNantesParis FCBaseline
Shots9.78 shots/match11.9 shots/match12.1 shots/match
Shots against15.9 shots/match11.4 shots/match11.9 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots5 shots10 shotsNantes 5 shots, Paris FC 10 shots
  • Shots on target1 shot3 shotsNantes 1 shot, Paris FC 3 shots
  • Expected goals0.36 xG0.97 xGNantes 0.36 xG, Paris FC 0.97 xG
  • Possession48%52%Nantes 48%, Paris FC 52%
  • Corners1 corner2 cornersNantes 1 corner, Paris FC 2 corners
  • Fouls16 fouls14 foulsNantes 16 fouls, Paris FC 14 fouls
  • Yellow cards1 card3 cardsNantes 1 card, Paris FC 3 cards

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Ilan Kebbal · Paris FC · 19′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedIbrahima Sissoko · Nantes · 44′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedHamari Traoré · Paris FC · 58′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedIlan Kebbal · Paris FC · 63′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedJean-Philippe Krasso · Paris FC · 83′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedAmady Camara · Nantes · 90′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedAlimami Gory · Paris FC · 24′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedVincent Marchetti · Paris FC · 84′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedIlan Kebbal · Paris FC · 6′ · 0.04 xG · goalMaxime López · Paris FC · 17′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedMatthis Abline · Nantes · 30′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedJohann Lepenant · Nantes · 45′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedTimothée Kolodziejczak · Paris FC · 6′ · 0.11 xG · on targetMatthis Abline · Nantes · 50′ · 0.18 xG · goalLuca Koleosho · Paris FC · 78′ · 0.66 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Nantes: 5 shots, 1 on target, 0.35 xG. Paris FC: 10 shots, 3 on target, 0.98 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.510′HT90′Matthis Abline · Nantes · 50′Ilan Kebbal · Paris FC · 6′Luca Koleosho · Paris FC · 78′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Nantes 0.35 xG · Paris FC 0.98 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

1Nantes
0Draws
0Paris FC
Paris FC — Nantes · Ligue 11–2

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Nantes favored in 1 of 11 directional metrics · Paris FC in 8 · 2 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Nantes18 matchesParis FC18 matches
0.94 goals/matchGoals scored18/18▲ 1.33 goals/match
1.67 goals/match ▲Goals allowed18/181.78 goals/match
0.93 xG/matchExpected goals18/18▲ 1.3 xG/match
9.78 shots/matchShots18/18▲ 11.9 shots/match
2.89 shots/matchShots on target18/18▲ 3.56 shots/match
42.8%Possession18/18● 53.8%
3 corners/matchCorners18/18● 4.39 corners/match
1.78 cards/matchCards18/182.11 cards/match
12.3 fouls/matchFouls18/1811.3 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples18 / 18home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 18 Jan 2026, 20:15 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Ligue 1

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsNantesParis FC
CompetitionLigue 1Ligue 1 2025/26
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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