PitchMath
Ligue 1 · 2025Sun, 18 Jan 2026, 14:00 UTCFull timeStade de la MeinauFull-time recap
2–1Full-time recap

Metz

LLLLD

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricStrasbourgMetz
Shots14 shots/match▲9 shots/match
Shots on target6 shots/match▲2 shots/match
Possession48%52%
Corners4 corners/match1 corners/match
Fouls12 fouls/match12 fouls/match
Yellow cards2 cards/match▲3 cards/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Guéla Doué · Strasbourg · 15′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedJessy Deminguet · Metz · 28′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedDiego Moreira · Strasbourg · 32′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedDiego Moreira · Strasbourg · 37′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedDiego Moreira · Strasbourg · 65′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedJean-Philippe Gbamin · Metz · 73′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedMalick Mbaye · Metz · 9′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedMartial Godo · Strasbourg · 37′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedMartial Godo · Strasbourg · 42′ · 0.03 xG · on targetValentín Barco · Strasbourg · 60′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedFodé Ballo-Touré · Metz · 47′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedIbou Sane · Metz · 10′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedJulio Enciso · Strasbourg · 40′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedGauthier Hein · Metz · 51′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedJean-Philippe Gbamin · Metz · 90′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedJean-Philippe Gbamin · Metz · 62′ · 0.06 xG · on targetDiego Moreira · Strasbourg · 12′ · 0.07 xG · goalJulio Enciso · Strasbourg · 46′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedMartial Godo · Strasbourg · 43′ · 0.09 xG · goalJoaquin Panichelli · Strasbourg · 33′ · 0.11 xG · on targetMartial Godo · Strasbourg · 45′ · 0.14 xG · on targetJulio Enciso · Strasbourg · 54′ · 0.46 xG · on targetGauthier Hein · Metz · 24′ · 0.82 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Strasbourg: 14 shots, 6 on target, 1.11 xG. Metz: 9 shots, 2 on target, 1.11 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.751.50′HT90′Diego Moreira · Strasbourg · 12′Martial Godo · Strasbourg · 43′Gauthier Hein · Metz · 24′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Strasbourg 1.11 xG · Metz 1.11 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Strasbourg's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: Metz's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Strasbourg's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Strasbourg's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.8 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.56 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.8 goals/match1.56 goals/match1.41 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Metz show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Metz's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

11.1 shots/match▲ShotsStrasbourg · Metz8.89 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricStrasbourgMetzBaseline
Shots11.1 shots/match8.89 shots/match12.2 shots/match
Shots against10.5 shots/match14.8 shots/match11.9 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

1Strasbourg
0Draws
0Metz
Metz — Strasbourg · Ligue 10–1

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Strasbourg favored in 9 of 14 directional metrics · Metz in 1 · 4 too close

1.56 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 18/181.06 goals/match
1.22 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 18/182.22 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
11.1 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 18/188.89 shots/match
10.5 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 18/1814.8 shots/match
4.33 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 18/183.06 shots/match
3.78 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 18/185.94 shots/match
52.7%Possessionseason · 18/1849.4%
3.94 corners/matchCornersseason · 18/183.94 corners/match
3.61 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 18/185.11 corners/match
2.33 cards/matchCardsseason · 18/18▲1.78 cards/match
11.7 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 18/1810.9 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
39%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 18/1817%
83%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 18/1867%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Strasbourg63.9
Metz52.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Strasbourg50
Metz10.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Strasbourg75
Metz8.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Strasbourg8.3
Metz2.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Strasbourg50
Metz15.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Strasbourg22.2
Metz22.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Strasbourg35.4
Metz11.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
0.8 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲1 goals/match
1 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/52 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
10.2 shots/match▲Shots5/59.4 shots/match
3.8 shots/match▲Shots on target5/53.4 shots/match
59%Possession5/552.6%
5.8 corners/matchCorners5/53.6 corners/match
1.6 cards/matchCards5/51.6 cards/match
11 fouls/matchFouls5/510.2 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
1.1 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲1.4 goals/match
1.2 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/102 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
10.8 shots/matchShots10/1010.3 shots/match
3.5 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲4 shots/match
55.7%Possession10/1048.8%
4.2 corners/matchCorners10/104.1 corners/match
2.3 cards/matchCards10/102.2 cards/match
11.6 fouls/matchFouls10/1010.6 fouls/match

Window

Season

18 / 18 matches
1.56 goals/match▲Goals scored18/181.06 goals/match
1.22 goals/match▲Goals allowed18/182.22 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
11.1 shots/match▲Shots18/188.89 shots/match
4.33 shots/match▲Shots on target18/183.06 shots/match
52.7%Possession18/1849.4%
3.94 corners/matchCorners18/183.94 corners/match
2.33 cards/matchCards18/181.78 cards/match
11.7 fouls/matchFouls18/1810.9 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

9 / 10 matches
1.78 goals/match▲Goals scored9/101.2 goals/match
0.56 goals/match▲Goals allowed9/103 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.7 shots/match▲Shots9/108.8 shots/match
5.44 shots/match▲Shots on target9/103 shots/match
53.1%Possession9/1051.7%
4.78 corners/matchCorners9/103.8 corners/match
1.89 cards/matchCards9/102 cards/match
10.4 fouls/matchFouls9/1010 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

14.8 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/113.9 days
0 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples18 / 18home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 18 Jan 2026, 18:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsStrasbourgMetz
CompetitionLigue 1
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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