PitchMath
Ligue 1 · 2025Fri, 30 Jan 2026, 19:45 UTCFull timeStade Bollaert-DelelisFull-time recap

Lens

WWWWL
1–0Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricLensLe Havre
Shots15 shots/match▲8 shots/match
Shots on target3 shots/match▲2 shots/match
Possession54%46%
Corners4 corners/match3 corners/match
Fouls20 fouls/match10 fouls/match
Yellow cards1 cards/match▲2 cards/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Malang Sarr · Lens · 31′ · 0.02 xG · on targetLucas Gourna-Douath · Le Havre · 38′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedFodé Doucouré · Le Havre · 87′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedMamadou Sangare · Lens · 90′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedMamadou Sangare · Lens · 18′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedLucas Gourna-Douath · Le Havre · 75′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedYanis Zouaoui · Le Havre · 2′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedArouna Sangante · Le Havre · 54′ · 0.04 xG · on targetKyllian Antonio · Lens · 90′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedFlorian Thauvin · Lens · 20′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedIssa Soumaré · Le Havre · 28′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedWesley Saïd · Lens · 84′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedMamadou Sangare · Lens · 45′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedFlorian Thauvin · Lens · 19′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedAyumu Seko · Le Havre · 54′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedMamadou Sangare · Lens · 8′ · 0.15 xG · off target or blockedAdrien Thomasson · Lens · 45′ · 0.15 xG · off target or blockedIssa Soumaré · Le Havre · 62′ · 0.16 xG · on targetRuben Aguilar · Lens · 45′ · 0.22 xG · goalWesley Saïd · Lens · 90′ · 0.22 xG · off target or blockedOdsonne Édouard · Lens · 66′ · 0.24 xG · off target or blockedMatthieu Udol · Lens · 36′ · 0.29 xG · off target or blockedFlorian Thauvin · Lens · 12′ · 0.44 xG · on target
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Lens: 15 shots, 3 on target, 2.10 xG. Le Havre: 8 shots, 2 on target, 0.47 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.252.50′HT90′Ruben Aguilar · Lens · 45′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Lens 2.10 xG · Le Havre 0.47 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Le Havre's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: Le Havre's away-only shot average is below their full-season average. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Le Havre's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Le Havre's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.6 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.8 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.6 goals/match0.8 goals/match1.39 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Le Havre have a visible away split

moderate

Le Havre's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

9.2 shots/match▲ShotsAway only · Season11 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots9.2 shots/match11 shots/match11.9 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Both teams have elevated fouls records

weak

Each team's season fouls average is above the competition baseline.

14.1 fouls/match▲FoulsLens · Le Havre13.7 fouls/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Both team averages are compared with the same competition baseline.

Window: season

MetricLensLe HavreBaseline
Fouls14.1 fouls/match13.7 fouls/match12.3 fouls/match

Caveat: A shared historical pattern is descriptive and may not repeat in one fixture.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

1Lens
0Draws
0Le Havre
Le Havre — Lens · Ligue 11–2

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Lens favored in 8 of 14 directional metrics · Le Havre in 1 · 5 too close

1.7 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 20/200.8 goals/match
0.8 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 20/201.25 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
14 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 20/2011 shots/match
11.7 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 20/2012.3 shots/match
5.1 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 20/203.6 shots/match
3.45 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 20/203.85 shots/match
49.3%Possessionseason · 20/2046%
5.55 corners/matchCornersseason · 20/204.55 corners/match
4.25 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 20/204.7 corners/match
2.15 cards/matchCardsseason · 20/20▲1.9 cards/match
14.1 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 20/2013.7 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
40%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 20/2030%
80%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 20/2055%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Lens47.2
Le Havre36.1
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Lens80.6
Le Havre21.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Lens76.9
Le Havre58.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Lens91.7
Le Havre41.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Lens69.4
Le Havre55.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Lens75
Le Havre47.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Lens80.6
Le Havre44.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1.6 goals/match▲Goals scored5/50.6 goals/match
0.6 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/50.8 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
14.4 shots/match▲Shots5/58.6 shots/match
4.8 shots/match▲Shots on target5/53.4 shots/match
52.4%Possession5/546.4%
3.4 corners/matchCorners5/54.8 corners/match
1.8 cards/matchCards5/52.2 cards/match
17.6 fouls/matchFouls5/513.2 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
2 goals/match▲Goals scored10/100.4 goals/match
0.6 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/100.9 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
15.1 shots/match▲Shots10/1010.8 shots/match
5.9 shots/match▲Shots on target10/103.7 shots/match
54.6%Possession10/1047.3%
5.1 corners/matchCorners10/105.1 corners/match
1.7 cards/matchCards10/101.8 cards/match
15.2 fouls/matchFouls10/1012.8 fouls/match

Window

Season

20 / 20 matches
1.7 goals/match▲Goals scored20/200.8 goals/match
0.8 goals/match▲Goals allowed20/201.25 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
14 shots/match▲Shots20/2011 shots/match
5.1 shots/match▲Shots on target20/203.6 shots/match
49.3%Possession20/2046%
5.55 corners/matchCorners20/204.55 corners/match
2.15 cards/matchCards20/201.9 cards/match
14.1 fouls/matchFouls20/2013.7 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

10 / 10 matches
1.8 goals/match▲Goals scored10/100.5 goals/match
0.4 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/101.6 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
15.3 shots/match▲Shots10/109.2 shots/match
5.5 shots/match▲Shots on target10/103.1 shots/match
49.6%Possession10/1042.3%
6.3 corners/matchCorners10/103.8 corners/match
1.7 cards/matchCards10/102.4 cards/match
13.7 fouls/matchFouls10/1013.5 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

5.99 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/16.07 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples20 / 20home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Fri, 30 Jan 2026, 23:45 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsLensLe Havre
CompetitionLigue 1
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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