PitchMath
Premier League · 2025Sat, 24 Jan 2026, 17:30 UTCFull timeVitality StadiumFull-time recap
3–2Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricBournemouthLiverpool
Shots12 shots/match14 shots/match▲
Shots on target5 shots/match▲4 shots/match
Possession33%67%
Corners3 corners/match11 corners/match
Fouls7 fouls/match7 fouls/match
Yellow cards1 cards/match1 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Liverpool's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: Liverpool's away-only shot average is below their full-season average. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Liverpool's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Liverpool's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.52 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1 goals/match1.52 goals/match1.43 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Liverpool have a visible away split

moderate

Liverpool's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

12.8 shots/match▲ShotsAway only · Season15.4 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots12.8 shots/match15.4 shots/match12 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Liverpool show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Liverpool's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

13.6 shots/match▲ShotsBournemouth · Liverpool15.4 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricBournemouthLiverpoolBaseline
Shots13.6 shots/match15.4 shots/match12 shots/match
Shots against12.7 shots/match10.7 shots/match12.1 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0Bournemouth
0Draws
1Liverpool
Liverpool — Bournemouth · Premier League4–2

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Bournemouth favored in 2 of 14 directional metrics · Liverpool in 7 · 5 too close

1.65 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 23/231.52 goals/match
1.87 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 23/23▲1.39 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
13.6 shots/matchShotsseason · 23/23▲15.4 shots/match
12.7 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 23/23▲10.7 shots/match
4.83 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 23/234.3 shots/match
4.65 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 23/23▲3.65 shots/match
49%Possessionseason · 23/2361.7%
5.57 corners/matchCornersseason · 23/235.57 corners/match
5.22 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 23/23▲4.26 corners/match
2.43 cards/matchCardsseason · 23/23▲1.65 cards/match
12.3 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 23/239.26 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
22%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 23/23▲30%
83%Scoring frequencyseason · 23/2383%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Bournemouth42.5
Liverpool97.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Bournemouth80.8
Liverpool72.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Bournemouth21.7
Liverpool70
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Bournemouth87.5
Liverpool62.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Bournemouth87.5
Liverpool17.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Bournemouth75
Liverpool75
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Bournemouth81.9
Liverpool56.9
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
2.2 goals/match▲Goals scored5/51 goals/match
2 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲1.2 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13.2 shots/matchShots5/5▲16.6 shots/match
3.8 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲4.2 shots/match
36.8%Possession5/563.6%
4.4 corners/matchCorners5/57.2 corners/match
2.2 cards/matchCards5/51 cards/match
11.4 fouls/matchFouls5/57.6 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
1.7 goals/match▲Goals scored10/101.5 goals/match
2 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲1.2 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13.4 shots/matchShots10/10▲16.2 shots/match
4.6 shots/matchShots on target10/104.4 shots/match
43.8%Possession10/1062.2%
5.2 corners/matchCorners10/106.1 corners/match
2 cards/matchCards10/101.3 cards/match
11.7 fouls/matchFouls10/107.7 fouls/match

Window

Season

23 / 23 matches
1.65 goals/match▲Goals scored23/231.52 goals/match
1.87 goals/matchGoals allowed23/23▲1.39 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13.6 shots/matchShots23/23▲15.4 shots/match
4.83 shots/match▲Shots on target23/234.3 shots/match
49%Possession23/2361.7%
5.57 corners/matchCorners23/235.57 corners/match
2.43 cards/matchCards23/231.65 cards/match
12.3 fouls/matchFouls23/239.26 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

12 / 12 matches
1.58 goals/matchGoals scored12/121.58 goals/match
1.08 goals/match▲Goals allowed12/121.75 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13.5 shots/matchShots12/1212.8 shots/match
4.25 shots/match▲Shots on target12/123.5 shots/match
52.2%Possession12/1261%
5 corners/matchCorners12/125.33 corners/match
2.08 cards/matchCards12/122.17 cards/match
12.4 fouls/matchFouls12/129.58 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

4.9 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17.1 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples23 / 23home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 24 Jan 2026, 21:30 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsBournemouthLiverpool
CompetitionPremier League
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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