PitchMath
UEFA Champions League · 2025Tue, 20 Jan 2026, 17:45 UTCFull timeAspmyra StadionFull-time recap
3–1Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricBodø/GlimtManchester City
Shots8 shots/match16 shots/match▲
Shots on target5 shots/match5 shots/match
Expected goals1.35 xG/match▲1.16 xG/match
Possession34%66%
Corners2 corners/match9 corners/match
Fouls6 fouls/match9 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Phil Foden · Manchester City · 43′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedTijjani Reijnders · Manchester City · 57′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedPhil Foden · Manchester City · 34′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedTijjani Reijnders · Manchester City · 48′ · 0.04 xG · on targetRayan Cherki · Manchester City · 60′ · 0.04 xG · goalPhil Foden · Manchester City · 68′ · 0.04 xG · on targetPatrick Berg · Bodø/Glimt · 2′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedPhil Foden · Manchester City · 60′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedJens Petter Hauge · Bodø/Glimt · 63′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedMax Alleyne · Manchester City · 70′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedRayan Cherki · Manchester City · 6′ · 0.06 xG · on targetRodri · Manchester City · 35′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedKasper Høgh · Bodø/Glimt · 39′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedNico O'Reilly · Manchester City · 87′ · 0.07 xG · on targetJens Petter Hauge · Bodø/Glimt · 58′ · 0.08 xG · goalTijjani Reijnders · Manchester City · 85′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedErling Haaland · Manchester City · 10′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedErling Haaland · Manchester City · 45′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedErling Haaland · Manchester City · 79′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedAndreas Helmersen · Bodø/Glimt · 90′ · 0.14 xG · on targetHåkon Evjen · Bodø/Glimt · 49′ · 0.17 xG · on targetMax Alleyne · Manchester City · 6′ · 0.27 xG · off target or blockedKasper Høgh · Bodø/Glimt · 22′ · 0.33 xG · goalKasper Høgh · Bodø/Glimt · 24′ · 0.44 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Bodø/Glimt: 8 shots, 5 on target, 1.32 xG. Manchester City: 16 shots, 5 on target, 1.15 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.751.50′HT90′Kasper Høgh · Bodø/Glimt · 22′Kasper Høgh · Bodø/Glimt · 24′Jens Petter Hauge · Bodø/Glimt · 58′Rayan Cherki · Manchester City · 60′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Bodø/Glimt 1.32 xG · Manchester City 1.15 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Manchester City's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. A second useful context is: Bodø/Glimt's home-only shot average is above their full-season average. Limitation: Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Manchester City show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Manchester City's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

12.7 shots/match▲ShotsBodø/Glimt · Manchester City16.6 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricBodø/GlimtManchester CityBaseline
Shots12.7 shots/match16.6 shots/match13.6 shots/match
Shots against17 shots/match9 shots/match13.3 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Bodø/Glimt have a visible home split

moderate

Bodø/Glimt's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

15.6 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season12.7 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots15.6 shots/match12.7 shots/match13.6 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Bodø/Glimt's recent record differs from the season

weak

Bodø/Glimt's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1.6 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season2 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.6 goals/match2 goals/match1.5 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Bodø/Glimt favored in 1 of 14 directional metrics · Manchester City in 8 · 5 too close

2 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 9/71.86 goals/match
1.78 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 9/7▲1.29 goals/match
1.8 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 7/71.82 xG/match
2.57 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 7/7▲1.05 xG/match
12.7 shots/matchShotsseason · 9/7▲16.6 shots/match
17 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 9/7▲9 shots/match
5 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 9/7▲7.29 shots/match
7.33 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 9/7▲2.57 shots/match
52%Possessionseason · 9/761.4%
4.56 corners/matchCornersseason · 9/75.71 corners/match
6.11 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 9/7▲3.14 corners/match
—Cardsseason · 0/0—
9.56 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 9/710.3 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
11%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 9/7▲29%
89%Scoring frequencyseason · 9/786%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Bodø/Glimt63.1
Manchester City94
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Bodø/Glimt54.1
Manchester City76.6
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Bodø/Glimt16.6
Manchester City86.9
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Bodø/Glimt34.5
Manchester City46.4
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Bodø/Glimt17.9
Manchester City32.1
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Bodø/Glimt46.4
Manchester City77.4
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Bodø/Glimt39
Manchester City68.4
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1.6 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲1.8 goals/match
2 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲1.4 goals/match
1.51 xG/matchExpected goals5/5▲1.8 xG/match
11.6 shots/matchShots5/5▲15 shots/match
4 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲7.4 shots/match
51%Possession5/557%
4 corners/matchCorners5/55.6 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
7.8 fouls/matchFouls5/511.2 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

9 / 7 matches
2 goals/match▲Goals scored9/71.86 goals/match
1.78 goals/matchGoals allowed9/7▲1.29 goals/match
1.8 xG/matchExpected goals7/71.82 xG/match
12.7 shots/matchShots9/7▲16.6 shots/match
5 shots/matchShots on target9/7▲7.29 shots/match
52%Possession9/761.4%
4.56 corners/matchCorners9/75.71 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
9.56 fouls/matchFouls9/710.3 fouls/match

Window

Season

9 / 7 matches
2 goals/match▲Goals scored9/71.86 goals/match
1.78 goals/matchGoals allowed9/7▲1.29 goals/match
1.8 xG/matchExpected goals7/71.82 xG/match
12.7 shots/matchShots9/7▲16.6 shots/match
5 shots/matchShots on target9/7▲7.29 shots/match
52%Possession9/761.4%
4.56 corners/matchCorners9/75.71 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
9.56 fouls/matchFouls9/710.3 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

5 / 4 matches
2.4 goals/match▲Goals scored5/41.75 goals/match
1.4 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/41.5 goals/match
1.82 xG/match▲Expected goals4/41.7 xG/match
15.6 shots/match▲Shots5/414 shots/match
5 shots/matchShots on target5/4▲6.25 shots/match
53.2%Possession5/462.8%
4.2 corners/matchCorners5/44.5 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
9.8 fouls/matchFouls5/413.5 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

40.9 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/140.9 days
0 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/10 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidencelimited
Season samples9 / 7home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
Analysis cutoff: Tue, 20 Jan 2026, 21:45 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsBodø/GlimtManchester City
CompetitionUEFA Champions League
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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