UEFA Champions League · 2025Tue, 20 Jan 2026, 20:00 UTCFull timeJosé AlvaladeFull-time recap

Sporting

LWDWL

2–1Full-time recap

Paris Saint Germain

WWLWD

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Sporting	Paris Saint Germain
Shots	10 shots/match	28 shots/match▲
Shots on target	4 shots/match	6 shots/match▲
Expected goals	0.82 xG/match	1.25 xG/match▲
Possession	25%	75%
Corners	2 corners/match	10 corners/match
Fouls	10 fouls/match	11 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Sporting: 10 shots, 4 on target, 0.84 xG. Paris Saint Germain: 28 shots, 6 on target, 1.22 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Sporting 0.84 xG · Paris Saint Germain 1.22 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Sporting's home-only shot average is above their full-season average. A second useful context is: Paris Saint Germain's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. Limitation: Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Sporting have a visible home split

weak

Sporting's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

16 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season11.4 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

Metric	Home only	Season	Baseline
Shots	16 shots/match	11.4 shots/match	13.6 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Paris Saint Germain show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Paris Saint Germain's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

11.4 shots/match▲ShotsSporting · Paris Saint Germain21 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

Metric	Sporting	Paris Saint Germain	Baseline
Shots	11.4 shots/match	21 shots/match	13.6 shots/match
Shots against	15.4 shots/match	9.14 shots/match	13.3 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Paris Saint Germain have recorded the higher season possession share.

46.3%▲PossessionSporting · Paris Saint Germain68%

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 21.7 percentage points.

Window: season

Metric	Sporting	Paris Saint Germain	Baseline
Possession	46.3%	68%	49.9%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Sporting favored in 3 of 14 directional metrics · Paris Saint Germain in 8 · 3 too close

2 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 7/7▲2.86 goals/match

1.29 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 7/71.43 goals/match

1.4 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 7/7▲2.14 xG/match

1.12 xG/match▲Expected goals allowedseason · 7/71.31 xG/match

11.4 shots/matchShotsseason · 7/7▲21 shots/match

15.4 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 7/7▲9.14 shots/match

4.71 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 7/7▲7.71 shots/match

5 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 7/7▲3.29 shots/match

46.3%Possessionseason · 7/768%

3 corners/matchCornersseason · 7/77 corners/match

5.14 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 7/7▲2.86 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

10.1 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 7/78.14 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

14%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 7/7▲29%

100%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 7/786%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Sporting27.4

Paris Saint Germain98.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Sporting45

Paris Saint Germain94.9

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Sporting46.4

Paris Saint Germain77.3

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Sporting36.9

Paris Saint Germain67.9

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Sporting27.4

Paris Saint Germain6

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Sporting7.1

Paris Saint Germain97.6

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Sporting24.7

Paris Saint Germain72.9

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches

1.8 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲2.8 goals/match

1.2 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/51.8 goals/match

0.83 xG/matchExpected goals5/5▲1.98 xG/match

10.2 shots/matchShots5/5▲22 shots/match

4.2 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲6.8 shots/match

42.2%Possession5/571.2%

2.2 corners/matchCorners5/56.8 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

9.6 fouls/matchFouls5/57.6 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

7 / 7 matches

2 goals/matchGoals scored7/7▲2.86 goals/match

1.29 goals/match▲Goals allowed7/71.43 goals/match

1.4 xG/matchExpected goals7/7▲2.14 xG/match

11.4 shots/matchShots7/7▲21 shots/match

4.71 shots/matchShots on target7/7▲7.71 shots/match

46.3%Possession7/768%

3 corners/matchCorners7/77 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

10.1 fouls/matchFouls7/78.14 fouls/match

Window

Season

7 / 7 matches

2 goals/matchGoals scored7/7▲2.86 goals/match

1.29 goals/match▲Goals allowed7/71.43 goals/match

1.4 xG/matchExpected goals7/7▲2.14 xG/match

11.4 shots/matchShots7/7▲21 shots/match

4.71 shots/matchShots on target7/7▲7.71 shots/match

46.3%Possession7/768%

3 corners/matchCorners7/77 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

10.1 fouls/matchFouls7/78.14 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

4 / 4 matches

2.75 goals/match▲Goals scored4/42.5 goals/match

0.75 goals/match▲Goals allowed4/41.25 goals/match

1.98 xG/matchExpected goals4/41.94 xG/match

16 shots/matchShots4/4▲21.3 shots/match

7 shots/match▲Shots on target4/46.5 shots/match

46.8%Possession4/467.8%

4 corners/matchCorners4/47.25 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

10.8 fouls/matchFouls4/48.75 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

42.1 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/141 days

0 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/10 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidencelimited

Season samples7 / 7home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.

Analysis cutoff: Wed, 21 Jan 2026, 00:00 UTC · analysis-v4

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Match statistics

Shot map

Expected-goals timeline

What the record shows

Sporting have a visible home split

Paris Saint Germain show a distinct attacking-volume record

The teams have contrasting possession records

Values, percentiles and samples

How the teams compare

Possession control

Attacking volume

Defensive resistance

Directness proxy

Physicality

Set-piece relevance

Tempo and pressure proxy

Season, last 10 and last 5

Last 5

Last 10

Season

Home and away samples

Home team at home / away team away

Rest and recent workload

How much supports this analysis

Known unknowns

Related matches

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