PitchMath
Ligue 1 · 2025Fri, 23 Jan 2026, 19:00 UTCFull timeStade de l'Abbé DeschampsFull-time recap

Auxerre

DWLLL
0–1Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricAuxerreParis Saint Germain
Shots8 shots/match16 shots/match▲
Shots on target0 shots/match8 shots/match▲
Possession31%69%
Corners2 corners/match7 corners/match
Fouls10 fouls/match12 fouls/match
Yellow cards0 cards/match▲1 cards/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Warren Zaïre-Emery · Paris Saint Germain · 47′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedGonçalo Ramos · Paris Saint Germain · 58′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedRudy Matondo · Auxerre · 67′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedDanny Namaso · Auxerre · 53′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedLassine Sinayoko · Auxerre · 73′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedLassine Sinayoko · Auxerre · 90′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedLassine Sinayoko · Auxerre · 56′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedOusmane Dembélé · Paris Saint Germain · 73′ · 0.03 xG · on targetKhvicha Kvaratskhelia · Paris Saint Germain · 54′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedBradley Barcola · Paris Saint Germain · 2′ · 0.05 xG · on targetOussama El Azzouzi · Auxerre · 69′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedKhvicha Kvaratskhelia · Paris Saint Germain · 36′ · 0.06 xG · on targetBradley Barcola · Paris Saint Germain · 51′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedKévin Danois · Auxerre · 23′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedRudy Matondo · Auxerre · 83′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedKhvicha Kvaratskhelia · Paris Saint Germain · 47′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedSenny Mayulu · Paris Saint Germain · 75′ · 0.10 xG · on targetKhvicha Kvaratskhelia · Paris Saint Germain · 8′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedIbrahim Mbaye · Paris Saint Germain · 36′ · 0.13 xG · on targetGonçalo Ramos · Paris Saint Germain · 30′ · 0.15 xG · on targetBradley Barcola · Paris Saint Germain · 2′ · 0.18 xG · on targetIlya Zabarnyi · Paris Saint Germain · 36′ · 0.20 xG · off target or blockedBradley Barcola · Paris Saint Germain · 63′ · 0.32 xG · off target or blockedBradley Barcola · Paris Saint Germain · 79′ · 0.51 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Auxerre: 8 shots, 0 on target, 0.30 xG. Paris Saint Germain: 16 shots, 8 on target, 2.06 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.252.50′HT90′Bradley Barcola · Paris Saint Germain · 79′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Auxerre 0.30 xG · Paris Saint Germain 2.06 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Auxerre's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Paris Saint Germain have recorded the higher season possession share. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Auxerre's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Auxerre's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.2 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.74 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.2 goals/match0.74 goals/match1.42 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

The teams have contrasting possession records

strong

Paris Saint Germain have recorded the higher season possession share.

44.1%▲PossessionAuxerre · Paris Saint Germain69.2%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 25.2 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricAuxerreParis Saint GermainBaseline
Possession44.1%69.2%49.3%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

Paris Saint Germain show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Paris Saint Germain's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

10.7 shots/match▲ShotsAuxerre · Paris Saint Germain17.5 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricAuxerreParis Saint GermainBaseline
Shots10.7 shots/match17.5 shots/match12.1 shots/match
Shots against12.1 shots/match8.42 shots/match12 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0Auxerre
0Draws
1Paris Saint Germain
Paris Saint Germain — Auxerre · Ligue 12–0

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Auxerre favored in 0 of 14 directional metrics · Paris Saint Germain in 10 · 4 too close

0.74 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 19/19▲2.16 goals/match
1.53 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 19/19▲0.79 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
10.7 shots/matchShotsseason · 19/19▲17.5 shots/match
12.1 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 19/19▲8.42 shots/match
3.37 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 19/19▲6.89 shots/match
4.89 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 19/19▲2.84 shots/match
44.1%Possessionseason · 19/1969.2%
4.95 corners/matchCornersseason · 19/196.21 corners/match
4.63 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 19/19▲2.89 corners/match
2.63 cards/matchCardsseason · 19/19▲1.11 cards/match
13.8 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 19/1910.3 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
16%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 19/19▲53%
47%Scoring frequencyseason · 19/19▲89%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Auxerre30.6
Paris Saint Germain97.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Auxerre12
Paris Saint Germain95.4
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Auxerre38
Paris Saint Germain95.4
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Auxerre47.2
Paris Saint Germain63.9
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Auxerre86.2
Paris Saint Germain5.6
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Auxerre58.3
Paris Saint Germain97.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Auxerre43
Paris Saint Germain75
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1.2 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲2.8 goals/match
1.8 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲0.6 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
11 shots/matchShots5/5▲16.6 shots/match
3.2 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲7.8 shots/match
43.4%Possession5/565%
5.6 corners/matchCorners5/56 corners/match
3.2 cards/matchCards5/50.6 cards/match
14 fouls/matchFouls5/510.4 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
0.7 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲2.2 goals/match
1.6 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲0.7 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
10.5 shots/matchShots10/10▲18.3 shots/match
3.4 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲7.4 shots/match
42.8%Possession10/1067.4%
4.7 corners/matchCorners10/106.4 corners/match
2.5 cards/matchCards10/101.3 cards/match
13.9 fouls/matchFouls10/1010.8 fouls/match

Window

Season

19 / 19 matches
0.74 goals/matchGoals scored19/19▲2.16 goals/match
1.53 goals/matchGoals allowed19/19▲0.79 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
10.7 shots/matchShots19/19▲17.5 shots/match
3.37 shots/matchShots on target19/19▲6.89 shots/match
44.1%Possession19/1969.2%
4.95 corners/matchCorners19/196.21 corners/match
2.63 cards/matchCards19/191.11 cards/match
13.8 fouls/matchFouls19/1910.3 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

10 / 10 matches
1 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲1.9 goals/match
1.2 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲1.1 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
11.5 shots/matchShots10/10▲14.9 shots/match
3.5 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲6.3 shots/match
41.9%Possession10/1068.7%
5.4 corners/matchCorners10/105.7 corners/match
2.8 cards/matchCards10/101.1 cards/match
13.6 fouls/matchFouls10/1010.2 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

6.12 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/16.96 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples19 / 19home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Fri, 23 Jan 2026, 23:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsAuxerreParis Saint Germain
CompetitionLigue 1
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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