PitchMath
Ligue 1 · 2025Sat, 17 Jan 2026, 16:00 UTCFull timeStade Bollaert-DelelisFull-time recap

Lens

WWWWW
1–0Full-time recap

Auxerre

DDWLL

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricLensAuxerre
Shots19 shots/match▲5 shots/match
Shots on target7 shots/match▲0 shots/match
Possession48%52%
Corners1 corners/match5 corners/match
Fouls19 fouls/match20 fouls/match
Yellow cards2 cards/match▲5 cards/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Florian Thauvin · Lens · 26′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedMamadou Sangare · Lens · 82′ · 0.02 xG · on targetRuben Aguilar · Lens · 90′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedMorgan Guilavogui · Lens · 90′ · 0.02 xG · on targetSaud Abdulhamid · Lens · 8′ · 0.03 xG · on targetMalang Sarr · Lens · 61′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedAndrija Bulatovic · Lens · 52′ · 0.04 xG · on targetAbdallah Sima · Lens · 90′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedClement Akpa · Auxerre · 13′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedDanny Namaso · Auxerre · 62′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedLamine Sy · Auxerre · 67′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedAndrija Bulatovic · Lens · 90′ · 0.07 xG · on targetLassine Sinayoko · Auxerre · 9′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedAndrija Bulatovic · Lens · 80′ · 0.11 xG · on targetAdrien Thomasson · Lens · 21′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedNaouirou Ahamada · Auxerre · 45′ · 0.14 xG · off target or blockedWesley Saïd · Lens · 48′ · 0.14 xG · off target or blockedSamson Baidoo · Lens · 83′ · 0.23 xG · off target or blockedFlorian Thauvin · Lens · 73′ · 0.24 xG · off target or blockedWesley Saïd · Lens · 65′ · 0.26 xG · goalMamadou Sangare · Lens · 89′ · 0.27 xG · off target or blockedMatthieu Udol · Lens · 48′ · 0.30 xG · off target or blockedMatthieu Udol · Lens · 48′ · 0.33 xG · off target or blockedAdrien Thomasson · Lens · 55′ · 0.40 xG · off target or blocked
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Lens: 19 shots, 7 on target, 2.69 xG. Auxerre: 5 shots, 0 on target, 0.44 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.530′HT90′Wesley Saïd · Lens · 65′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Lens 2.69 xG · Auxerre 0.44 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Auxerre's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Each team's season fouls average is above the competition baseline. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Auxerre's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Auxerre's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.4 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.78 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.4 goals/match0.78 goals/match1.41 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Both teams have elevated fouls records

weak

Each team's season fouls average is above the competition baseline.

13.6 fouls/match▲FoulsLens · Auxerre14.1 fouls/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Both team averages are compared with the same competition baseline.

Window: season

MetricLensAuxerreBaseline
Fouls13.6 fouls/match14.1 fouls/match12.1 fouls/match

Caveat: A shared historical pattern is descriptive and may not repeat in one fixture.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

1Lens
0Draws
0Auxerre
Auxerre — Lens · Ligue 11–2

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Lens favored in 8 of 14 directional metrics · Auxerre in 0 · 6 too close

1.78 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 18/180.78 goals/match
0.72 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 18/181.56 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
14.3 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 18/1810.9 shots/match
12 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 18/1811.8 shots/match
5.39 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 18/183.56 shots/match
3.44 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 18/184.72 shots/match
49.2%Possessionseason · 18/1844.8%
5.83 corners/matchCornersseason · 18/185.11 corners/match
4.44 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 18/184.5 corners/match
2.17 cards/match▲Cardsseason · 18/182.78 cards/match
13.6 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 18/1814.1 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
39%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 18/1817%
78%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 18/1850%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Lens47.2
Auxerre30.6
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Lens86.1
Auxerre13.9
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Lens74.1
Auxerre38.9
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Lens91.7
Auxerre47.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Lens63.9
Auxerre88.9
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Lens83.3
Auxerre63.9
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Lens84
Auxerre45.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
2 goals/match▲Goals scored5/51.4 goals/match
0.4 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/51.8 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
17.4 shots/match▲Shots5/511.6 shots/match
6.2 shots/match▲Shots on target5/53.8 shots/match
56.6%Possession5/546.2%
6.2 corners/matchCorners5/55.8 corners/match
1.2 cards/matchCards5/53.4 cards/match
15.2 fouls/matchFouls5/515.4 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
2 goals/match▲Goals scored10/100.7 goals/match
0.6 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/101.6 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
14.7 shots/match▲Shots10/1011.1 shots/match
6.1 shots/match▲Shots on target10/103.7 shots/match
53.1%Possession10/1044.8%
5.4 corners/matchCorners10/105.8 corners/match
1.8 cards/matchCards10/102.7 cards/match
14.3 fouls/matchFouls10/1015 fouls/match

Window

Season

18 / 18 matches
1.78 goals/match▲Goals scored18/180.78 goals/match
0.72 goals/match▲Goals allowed18/181.56 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
14.3 shots/match▲Shots18/1810.9 shots/match
5.39 shots/match▲Shots on target18/183.56 shots/match
49.2%Possession18/1844.8%
5.83 corners/matchCorners18/185.11 corners/match
2.17 cards/matchCards18/182.78 cards/match
13.6 fouls/matchFouls18/1814.1 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

9 / 9 matches
1.89 goals/match▲Goals scored9/90.44 goals/match
0.44 goals/match▲Goals allowed9/91.89 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
15.3 shots/match▲Shots9/99.89 shots/match
5.78 shots/match▲Shots on target9/93.22 shots/match
49.1%Possession9/946.4%
6.56 corners/matchCorners9/94.44 corners/match
1.78 cards/matchCards9/92.44 cards/match
13 fouls/matchFouls9/914.1 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

14.8 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/113 days
0 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples18 / 18home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 17 Jan 2026, 20:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsLensAuxerre
CompetitionLigue 1
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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