PitchMath
Ligue 1 · 2025Stadium de Toulouse

Toulouse 5–1 Nice · Ligue 1

5–1Historical match

Nice

LLLLD

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Toulouse won 5–1.

Shots
2215
Shots on target
106
Expected goals
1.841.99
Possession
43%57%

Full time

What the match recorded

Toulouse beat Nice 5–1. Recorded in this match (Toulouse – Nice): shots 22–15, shots on target 10–6, expected goals 1.84–1.99, possession 43%–57%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Nice's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Nice's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.6 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.17 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.6 goals/match1.17 goals/match1.41 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Toulouse have a visible home split

moderate

Toulouse's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

15 shots/match ▲ShotsHome only · Season12.5 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots15 shots/match12.5 shots/match12.2 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Toulouse show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Toulouse's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

12.5 shots/match ▲ShotsToulouse · Nice11.8 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricToulouseNiceBaseline
Shots12.5 shots/match11.8 shots/match12.2 shots/match
Shots against11.6 shots/match15.7 shots/match11.8 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots22 shots15 shotsToulouse 22 shots, Nice 15 shots
  • Shots on target10 shots6 shotsToulouse 10 shots, Nice 6 shots
  • Expected goals1.84 xG1.99 xGToulouse 1.84 xG, Nice 1.99 xG
  • Possession43%57%Toulouse 43%, Nice 57%
  • Corners6 corners7 cornersToulouse 6 corners, Nice 7 corners
  • Fouls12 fouls17 foulsToulouse 12 fouls, Nice 17 fouls
  • Yellow cards1 card2 cardsToulouse 1 card, Nice 2 cards

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Rasmus Nicolaisen · Toulouse · 20′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedMelvin Bard · Nice · 39′ · 0.02 xG · on targetSantiago Hidalgo · Toulouse · 55′ · 0.02 xG · goalPape Diop · Toulouse · 60′ · 0.02 xG · on targetJonathan Clauss · Nice · 84′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedFrank Magri · Toulouse · 77′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedJulián Vignolo · Toulouse · 90′ · 0.03 xG · on targetTom Louchet · Nice · 11′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedPape Diop · Toulouse · 31′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedFrank Magri · Toulouse · 33′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedIsak Jansson · Nice · 45′ · 0.04 xG · on targetTiago Gouveia · Nice · 66′ · 0.04 xG · on targetNoah Edjouma · Toulouse · 86′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedNoah Edjouma · Toulouse · 88′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedMorgan Sanson · Nice · 3′ · 0.05 xG · on targetFrank Magri · Toulouse · 21′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedAron Dønnum · Toulouse · 33′ · 0.05 xG · on targetCristian Cásseres Jr. · Toulouse · 90′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedTom Louchet · Nice · 53′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedJulián Vignolo · Toulouse · 80′ · 0.06 xG · goalTom Louchet · Nice · 22′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedAron Dønnum · Toulouse · 34′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedFrank Magri · Toulouse · 33′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedFrank Magri · Toulouse · 33′ · 0.09 xG · on targetIsak Jansson · Nice · 39′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedEverton Pereira · Nice · 62′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedFrank Magri · Toulouse · 12′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedFrank Magri · Toulouse · 43′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedCristian Cásseres Jr. · Toulouse · 74′ · 0.12 xG · goalSantiago Hidalgo · Toulouse · 42′ · 0.14 xG · on targetKevin Carlos Omoruyi · Nice · 90′ · 0.14 xG · off target or blockedMohamed-Ali Cho · Nice · 71′ · 0.19 xG · on targetTanguy Ndombélé · Nice · 39′ · 0.21 xG · off target or blockedSantiago Hidalgo · Toulouse · 7′ · 0.29 xG · goalFrank Magri · Toulouse · 45′ · 0.31 xG · goalMorgan Sanson · Nice · 48′ · 0.40 xG · off target or blockedElye Wahi · Nice · 49′ · 0.53 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Toulouse: 22 shots, 10 on target, 1.82 xG. Nice: 15 shots, 6 on target, 2.01 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.252.50′HT90′Santiago Hidalgo · Toulouse · 7′Frank Magri · Toulouse · 45′Santiago Hidalgo · Toulouse · 55′Cristian Cásseres Jr. · Toulouse · 74′Julián Vignolo · Toulouse · 80′Elye Wahi · Nice · 49′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Toulouse 1.82 xG · Nice 2.01 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

2Toulouse
2Draws
1Nice
Nice — Toulouse · Ligue 10–1
Toulouse — Nice · Ligue 11–1
Nice — Toulouse · Ligue 11–1
Toulouse — Nice · Ligue 12–1
Nice — Toulouse · Ligue 11–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Toulouse favored in 8 of 11 directional metrics · Nice in 1 · 2 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Toulouse18 matchesNice18 matches
1.61 goals/match ▲Goals scored18/181.17 goals/match
1.28 goals/match ▲Goals allowed18/181.94 goals/match
1.44 xG/match ▲Expected goals18/181.27 xG/match
12.5 shots/match ▲Shots18/1811.8 shots/match
4.17 shots/matchShots on target18/184.17 shots/match
40.5%Possession18/18● 48.1%
4.56 corners/matchCorners18/18● 5.06 corners/match
2.39 cards/matchCards18/182.22 cards/match
14.3 fouls/matchFouls18/1812.7 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples18 / 18home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 17 Jan 2026, 22:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Ligue 1

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsToulouseNice
CompetitionLigue 1Ligue 1 2025/26
Head-to-headToulouse — Nice
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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