PitchMath
Ligue 1 · 2025Sat, 17 Jan 2026, 18:00 UTCFull timeStadium de ToulouseFull-time recap
5–1Full-time recap

Nice

LLLLD

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricToulouseNice
Shots22 shots/match▲15 shots/match
Shots on target10 shots/match▲6 shots/match
Possession43%57%
Corners6 corners/match7 corners/match
Fouls12 fouls/match17 fouls/match
Yellow cards1 cards/match▲2 cards/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Rasmus Nicolaisen · Toulouse · 20′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedMelvin Bard · Nice · 39′ · 0.02 xG · on targetSantiago Hidalgo · Toulouse · 55′ · 0.02 xG · goalPape Diop · Toulouse · 60′ · 0.02 xG · on targetJonathan Clauss · Nice · 84′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedFrank Magri · Toulouse · 77′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedJulián Vignolo · Toulouse · 90′ · 0.03 xG · on targetTom Louchet · Nice · 11′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedPape Diop · Toulouse · 31′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedFrank Magri · Toulouse · 33′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedIsak Jansson · Nice · 45′ · 0.04 xG · on targetTiago Gouveia · Nice · 66′ · 0.04 xG · on targetNoah Edjouma · Toulouse · 86′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedNoah Edjouma · Toulouse · 88′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedMorgan Sanson · Nice · 3′ · 0.05 xG · on targetFrank Magri · Toulouse · 21′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedAron Dønnum · Toulouse · 33′ · 0.05 xG · on targetCristian Cásseres Jr. · Toulouse · 90′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedTom Louchet · Nice · 53′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedJulián Vignolo · Toulouse · 80′ · 0.06 xG · goalTom Louchet · Nice · 22′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedAron Dønnum · Toulouse · 34′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedFrank Magri · Toulouse · 33′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedFrank Magri · Toulouse · 33′ · 0.09 xG · on targetIsak Jansson · Nice · 39′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedEverton Pereira · Nice · 62′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedFrank Magri · Toulouse · 12′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedFrank Magri · Toulouse · 43′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedCristian Cásseres Jr. · Toulouse · 74′ · 0.12 xG · goalSantiago Hidalgo · Toulouse · 42′ · 0.14 xG · on targetKevin Carlos Omoruyi · Nice · 90′ · 0.14 xG · off target or blockedMohamed-Ali Cho · Nice · 71′ · 0.19 xG · on targetTanguy Ndombélé · Nice · 39′ · 0.21 xG · off target or blockedSantiago Hidalgo · Toulouse · 7′ · 0.29 xG · goalFrank Magri · Toulouse · 45′ · 0.31 xG · goalMorgan Sanson · Nice · 48′ · 0.40 xG · off target or blockedElye Wahi · Nice · 49′ · 0.53 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Toulouse: 22 shots, 10 on target, 1.82 xG. Nice: 15 shots, 6 on target, 2.01 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.252.50′HT90′Santiago Hidalgo · Toulouse · 7′Frank Magri · Toulouse · 45′Santiago Hidalgo · Toulouse · 55′Cristian Cásseres Jr. · Toulouse · 74′Julián Vignolo · Toulouse · 80′Elye Wahi · Nice · 49′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Toulouse 1.82 xG · Nice 2.01 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Nice's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: Toulouse's home-only shot average is above their full-season average. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Nice's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Nice's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.6 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.17 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.6 goals/match1.17 goals/match1.41 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Toulouse have a visible home split

moderate

Toulouse's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

15 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season12.5 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots15 shots/match12.5 shots/match12.2 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Toulouse show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Toulouse's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

12.5 shots/match▲ShotsToulouse · Nice11.8 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricToulouseNiceBaseline
Shots12.5 shots/match11.8 shots/match12.2 shots/match
Shots against11.6 shots/match15.7 shots/match11.8 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

1Toulouse
0Draws
0Nice
Nice — Toulouse · Ligue 10–1

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Toulouse favored in 6 of 14 directional metrics · Nice in 2 · 6 too close

1.61 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 18/181.17 goals/match
1.28 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 18/181.94 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
12.5 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 18/1811.8 shots/match
11.6 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 18/1815.7 shots/match
4.11 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 18/184.17 shots/match
3.44 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 18/185.83 shots/match
40.5%Possessionseason · 18/1848.1%
4.56 corners/matchCornersseason · 18/185.06 corners/match
5.56 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 18/185.72 corners/match
2.39 cards/matchCardsseason · 18/18▲2.22 cards/match
14.3 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 18/1812.7 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
33%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 18/1811%
72%Scoring frequencyseason · 18/18▲78%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Toulouse2.8
Nice41.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Toulouse58.3
Nice39.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Toulouse72.2
Nice8.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Toulouse97.2
Nice52.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Toulouse87.5
Nice58.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Toulouse47.2
Nice58.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Toulouse61.1
Nice51.4
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
2.2 goals/match▲Goals scored5/50.6 goals/match
1.2 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/52.4 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
9.8 shots/matchShots5/5▲12.8 shots/match
4.6 shots/match▲Shots on target5/54.2 shots/match
32.2%Possession5/552.6%
2.8 corners/matchCorners5/55.6 corners/match
1.8 cards/matchCards5/51.8 cards/match
14.6 fouls/matchFouls5/512.8 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
1.4 goals/match▲Goals scored10/100.9 goals/match
1.1 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/102.1 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.3 shots/match▲Shots10/1011.1 shots/match
3.9 shots/matchShots on target10/104.1 shots/match
41.2%Possession10/1046.4%
4.9 corners/matchCorners10/104.5 corners/match
2.1 cards/matchCards10/102.1 cards/match
14.5 fouls/matchFouls10/1013 fouls/match

Window

Season

18 / 18 matches
1.61 goals/match▲Goals scored18/181.17 goals/match
1.28 goals/match▲Goals allowed18/181.94 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.5 shots/match▲Shots18/1811.8 shots/match
4.11 shots/matchShots on target18/184.17 shots/match
40.5%Possession18/1848.1%
4.56 corners/matchCorners18/185.06 corners/match
2.39 cards/matchCards18/182.22 cards/match
14.3 fouls/matchFouls18/1812.7 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

10 / 9 matches
1.9 goals/match▲Goals scored10/91 goals/match
1.5 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/92.56 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
15 shots/match▲Shots10/910.3 shots/match
5 shots/match▲Shots on target10/93.33 shots/match
41.1%Possession10/948.8%
4.9 corners/matchCorners10/95 corners/match
1.6 cards/matchCards10/92.67 cards/match
13.8 fouls/matchFouls10/913.7 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

14.9 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/114 days
0 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples18 / 18home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 17 Jan 2026, 22:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsToulouseNice
CompetitionLigue 1
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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