PitchMath
Ligue 1 · 2025Sat, 17 Jan 2026, 20:05 UTCFull timeStade Raymond-KopaFull-time recap

Angers

WLWWL
2–5Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricAngersMarseille
Shots7 shots/match23 shots/match▲
Shots on target3 shots/match11 shots/match▲
Possession34%66%
Corners6 corners/match2 corners/match
Fouls9 fouls/match8 fouls/match
Yellow cards1 cards/match1 cards/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Amine Gouiri · Marseille · 23′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedPierre-Emile Højbjerg · Marseille · 61′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedDjibirin Harouna · Angers · 90′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedBilal Nadir · Marseille · 10′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedMason Greenwood · Marseille · 45′ · 0.03 xG · on targetLouis Mouton · Angers · 55′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedAmine Gouiri · Marseille · 56′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedIgor Paixão · Marseille · 74′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedYassin Belkhdim · Angers · 78′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedPierre-Emerick Aubameyang · Marseille · 90′ · 0.03 xG · on targetEmerson Palmieri · Marseille · 4′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedHamed Junior Traorè · Marseille · 6′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedLouis Mouton · Angers · 67′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedPierre-Emerick Aubameyang · Marseille · 90′ · 0.04 xG · on targetMason Greenwood · Marseille · 4′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedMason Greenwood · Marseille · 24′ · 0.05 xG · goalAmine Gouiri · Marseille · 47′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedMason Greenwood · Marseille · 53′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedMatt O'Riley · Marseille · 75′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedAmine Sbai · Angers · 45′ · 0.06 xG · on targetAmine Gouiri · Marseille · 4′ · 0.08 xG · on targetAmine Gouiri · Marseille · 36′ · 0.14 xG · on targetAmine Sbai · Angers · 45′ · 0.20 xG · goalIgor Paixão · Marseille · 71′ · 0.27 xG · off target or blockedIgor Paixão · Marseille · 88′ · 0.30 xG · goalHamed Junior Traorè · Marseille · 34′ · 0.36 xG · goalTimothy Weah · Marseille · 40′ · 0.43 xG · goalTimothy Weah · Marseille · 4′ · 0.48 xG · on targetJim Allevinah · Angers · 90′ · 0.59 xG · goalAmine Gouiri · Marseille · 19′ · 0.72 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Angers: 7 shots, 3 on target, 0.97 xG. Marseille: 23 shots, 11 on target, 3.34 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.753.50′HT90′Amine Sbai · Angers · 45′Jim Allevinah · Angers · 90′Amine Gouiri · Marseille · 19′Mason Greenwood · Marseille · 24′Hamed Junior Traorè · Marseille · 34′Timothy Weah · Marseille · 40′Igor Paixão · Marseille · 88′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Angers 0.97 xG · Marseille 3.34 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Angers's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Marseille's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Angers's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Angers's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.8 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.11 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.8 goals/match1.11 goals/match1.41 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Marseille show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Marseille's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

9.11 shots/match▲ShotsAngers · Marseille14.6 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricAngersMarseilleBaseline
Shots9.11 shots/match14.6 shots/match12.2 shots/match
Shots against15.1 shots/match9.67 shots/match11.8 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

The teams have contrasting possession records

strong

Marseille have recorded the higher season possession share.

41.6%▲PossessionAngers · Marseille60%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 18.4 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricAngersMarseilleBaseline
Possession41.6%60%49.2%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0Angers
1Draws
0Marseille
Marseille — Angers · Ligue 12–2

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Angers favored in 1 of 14 directional metrics · Marseille in 9 · 4 too close

1.11 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 18/18▲2.28 goals/match
1.39 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 18/18▲1.06 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
9.11 shots/matchShotsseason · 18/18▲14.6 shots/match
15.1 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 18/18▲9.67 shots/match
3.5 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 18/18▲6 shots/match
5.67 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 18/18▲4.17 shots/match
41.6%Possessionseason · 18/1860%
3.89 corners/matchCornersseason · 18/185.28 corners/match
5.5 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 18/18▲3.67 corners/match
1.39 cards/match▲Cardsseason · 18/182.28 cards/match
11.3 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 18/1811.9 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
28%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 18/18▲33%
72%Scoring frequencyseason · 18/18▲78%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Angers8.3
Marseille91.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Angers15.7
Marseille93.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Angers27.8
Marseille73.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Angers13.9
Marseille47.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Angers16.6
Marseille52.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Angers13.9
Marseille69.4
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Angers15.3
Marseille73.6
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1.8 goals/match▲Goals scored5/51.6 goals/match
2 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲1.4 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
10.2 shots/matchShots5/5▲15.6 shots/match
4.8 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲6 shots/match
46.6%Possession5/563%
4.2 corners/matchCorners5/55 corners/match
1 cards/matchCards5/52 cards/match
10 fouls/matchFouls5/510.8 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
1.6 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲2 goals/match
1.3 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲1.2 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
9.1 shots/matchShots10/10▲14.4 shots/match
4.2 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲5.9 shots/match
45.2%Possession10/1060.5%
3.3 corners/matchCorners10/104.9 corners/match
1.2 cards/matchCards10/102.2 cards/match
11.5 fouls/matchFouls10/1011 fouls/match

Window

Season

18 / 18 matches
1.11 goals/matchGoals scored18/18▲2.28 goals/match
1.39 goals/matchGoals allowed18/18▲1.06 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
9.11 shots/matchShots18/18▲14.6 shots/match
3.5 shots/matchShots on target18/18▲6 shots/match
41.6%Possession18/1860%
3.89 corners/matchCorners18/185.28 corners/match
1.39 cards/matchCards18/182.28 cards/match
11.3 fouls/matchFouls18/1811.9 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

9 / 9 matches
1.56 goals/matchGoals scored9/9▲1.89 goals/match
1.33 goals/matchGoals allowed9/9▲1 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
10.6 shots/matchShots9/9▲14.6 shots/match
4.44 shots/matchShots on target9/9▲5.67 shots/match
43%Possession9/958.6%
4.78 corners/matchCorners9/95.33 corners/match
1.56 cards/matchCards9/92.44 cards/match
13 fouls/matchFouls9/910.7 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

13.2 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/113.3 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples18 / 18home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 18 Jan 2026, 00:05 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsAngersMarseille
CompetitionLigue 1
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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