Premier League · 2025Sun, 25 Jan 2026, 16:30 UTCFull timeEmirates StadiumFull-time recap

Arsenal

WWWDD

2–3Full-time recap

Manchester United

WDDDW

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Arsenal	Manchester United
Shots	15 shots/match▲	10 shots/match
Shots on target	4 shots/match▲	3 shots/match
Possession	56%	44%
Corners	9 corners/match	2 corners/match
Fouls	11 fouls/match	9 fouls/match
Yellow cards	2 cards/match	0 cards/match▲

30-second read

What the record shows

The available record does not support a clear cross-team pattern. No second pattern clears the sample and coverage gates. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

1Arsenal

0Draws

0Manchester United

17 Aug 2025Manchester United — Arsenal · Premier League0–1

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Arsenal favored in 5 of 14 directional metrics · Manchester United in 2 · 7 too close

1.83 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 23/231.78 goals/match

0.74 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 23/231.48 goals/match

—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—

—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—

14.9 shots/matchShotsseason · 23/23▲16.2 shots/match

7.91 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 23/2311.1 shots/match

4.91 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 23/23▲5.61 shots/match

2.13 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 23/233.65 shots/match

58.1%Possessionseason · 23/2352.6%

5.91 corners/matchCornersseason · 23/234.48 corners/match

3 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 23/235 corners/match

1.39 cards/matchCardsseason · 23/231.39 cards/match

10.2 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 23/239.61 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

48%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 23/2313%

87%Scoring frequencyseason · 23/2387%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Arsenal87.5

Manchester United67.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Arsenal89.2

Manchester United94.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Arsenal97.5

Manchester United64.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Arsenal77.5

Manchester United97.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Arsenal26.2

Manchester United8.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Arsenal92.5

Manchester United27.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Arsenal78.8

Manchester United58.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches

1.8 goals/matchGoals scored5/51.8 goals/match

1.2 goals/matchGoals allowed5/51.2 goals/match

—Expected goals0/0—

14.6 shots/matchShots5/5▲16.2 shots/match

4.6 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲5.6 shots/match

53.4%Possession5/550.4%

5.8 corners/matchCorners5/54.2 corners/match

1.6 cards/matchCards5/50.6 cards/match

12.2 fouls/matchFouls5/59.6 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches

1.7 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲2 goals/match

1 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/101.4 goals/match

—Expected goals0/0—

15.6 shots/matchShots10/10▲17.5 shots/match

4.9 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲6.1 shots/match

56.9%Possession10/1052.7%

5.4 corners/matchCorners10/104.8 corners/match

1.4 cards/matchCards10/101.3 cards/match

9.5 fouls/matchFouls10/109.9 fouls/match

Window

Season

23 / 23 matches

1.83 goals/matchGoals scored23/231.78 goals/match

0.74 goals/match▲Goals allowed23/231.48 goals/match

—Expected goals0/0—

14.9 shots/matchShots23/23▲16.2 shots/match

4.91 shots/matchShots on target23/23▲5.61 shots/match

58.1%Possession23/2352.6%

5.91 corners/matchCorners23/234.48 corners/match

1.39 cards/matchCards23/231.39 cards/match

10.2 fouls/matchFouls23/239.61 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

12 / 12 matches

2.33 goals/match▲Goals scored12/121.75 goals/match

0.67 goals/match▲Goals allowed12/121.75 goals/match

—Expected goals0/0—

16.3 shots/match▲Shots12/1215.2 shots/match

4.92 shots/matchShots on target12/125.08 shots/match

59%Possession12/1253.3%

5.92 corners/matchCorners12/124.5 corners/match

0.92 cards/matchCards12/121.17 cards/match

9.83 fouls/matchFouls12/128.67 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7.96 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/18.17 days

1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready

Season samples23 / 23home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.

Analysis cutoff: Sun, 25 Jan 2026, 20:30 UTC · analysis-v4

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