PitchMath
UEFA Champions League · 2025Emirates Stadium

Arsenal 3–2 Kairat Almaty · UEFA Champions League

Arsenal

WWWWW
3–2Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Arsenal won 3–2.

Shots
254
Shots on target
112
Expected goals
4.061.11
Possession
66%34%

Full time

What the match recorded

Arsenal beat Kairat Almaty 3–2. Recorded in this match (Arsenal – Kairat Almaty): shots 25–4, shots on target 11–2, expected goals 4.06–1.11, possession 66%–34%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Kairat Almaty's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Kairat Almaty's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.2 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.88 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.2 goals/match0.88 goals/match1.5 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Arsenal show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Arsenal's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

16.8 shots/match ▲ShotsArsenal · Kairat Almaty10.3 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricArsenalKairat AlmatyBaseline
Shots16.8 shots/match10.3 shots/match13.4 shots/match
Shots against11.1 shots/match17.4 shots/match13.1 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Arsenal have recorded the higher season possession share.

54.6% ●PossessionArsenal · Kairat Almaty40.8%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 13.8 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricArsenalKairat AlmatyBaseline
Possession54.6%40.8%50.4%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots25 shots4 shotsArsenal 25 shots, Kairat Almaty 4 shots
  • Shots on target11 shots2 shotsArsenal 11 shots, Kairat Almaty 2 shots
  • Expected goals4.06 xG1.11 xGArsenal 4.06 xG, Kairat Almaty 1.11 xG
  • Possession66%34%Arsenal 66%, Kairat Almaty 34%
  • Corners11 corners0 cornersArsenal 11 corners, Kairat Almaty 0 corners
  • Fouls14 fouls10 foulsArsenal 14 fouls, Kairat Almaty 10 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Riccardo Calafiori · Arsenal · 9′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedNoni Madueke · Arsenal · 55′ · 0.02 xG · on targetNoni Madueke · Arsenal · 56′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedRicardinho · Kairat Almaty · 62′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedGabriel Martinelli · Arsenal · 68′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedValeriy Gromyko · Kairat Almaty · 80′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedMartin Ødegaard · Arsenal · 90′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedMyles Lewis-Skelly · Arsenal · 33′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedGabriel Martinelli · Arsenal · 45′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedEberechi Eze · Arsenal · 76′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedNoni Madueke · Arsenal · 27′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedEberechi Eze · Arsenal · 61′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedNoni Madueke · Arsenal · 90′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedChristian Nørgaard · Arsenal · 61′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedNoni Madueke · Arsenal · 89′ · 0.05 xG · on targetKai Havertz · Arsenal · 15′ · 0.06 xG · goalMartin Ødegaard · Arsenal · 64′ · 0.06 xG · on targetViktor Gyökeres · Arsenal · 22′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedViktor Gyökeres · Arsenal · 2′ · 0.10 xG · goalMartin Ødegaard · Arsenal · 47′ · 0.12 xG · on targetGabriel Jesus · Arsenal · 86′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedGabriel Jesus · Arsenal · 90′ · 0.14 xG · on targetGabriel Martinelli · Arsenal · 39′ · 0.19 xG · on targetViktor Gyökeres · Arsenal · 34′ · 0.22 xG · on targetRicardinho · Kairat Almaty · 90′ · 0.27 xG · goalViktor Gyökeres · Arsenal · 25′ · 0.75 xG · off target or blockedViktor Gyökeres · Arsenal · 36′ · 0.78 xG · on targetJorginho · Kairat Almaty · 7′ · 0.82 xG · goalGabriel Martinelli · Arsenal · 36′ · 0.91 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Arsenal: 25 shots, 11 on target, 3.94 xG. Kairat Almaty: 4 shots, 2 on target, 1.13 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

0240′HT90′Viktor Gyökeres · Arsenal · 2′Kai Havertz · Arsenal · 15′Gabriel Martinelli · Arsenal · 36′Jorginho · Kairat Almaty · 7′Ricardinho · Kairat Almaty · 90′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Arsenal 3.94 xG · Kairat Almaty 1.13 xG.

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Arsenal favored in 11 of 11 directional metrics · Kairat Almaty in 0

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Arsenal8 matchesKairat Almaty16 matches
2.88 goals/match ▲Goals scored8/160.88 goals/match
0.5 goals/match ▲Goals allowed8/161.63 goals/match
2.51 xG/match ▲Expected goals8/80.78 xG/match
16.8 shots/match ▲Shots8/1110.3 shots/match
7.88 shots/match ▲Shots on target8/112.91 shots/match
54.6% ●Possession8/1140.8%
5.5 corners/match ●Corners8/112.73 corners/match
12.4 fouls/matchFouls8/1111.7 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidenceUseful evidence — limited
Season samples8 / 16home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Thu, 29 Jan 2026, 00:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in UEFA Champions League

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsArsenalKairat Almaty
CompetitionUEFA Champions LeagueUEFA Champions League 2025/26
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

Make a graphic from this match

Creator Studio builds a branded post from this match's recorded data, with its evidence grade and source cutoff carried into the export.

Turn this match into a graphicReady-made from PitchMath data · No sign-up required