PitchMath
UEFA Champions League · 2025Wed, 28 Jan 2026, 20:00 UTCFull timeEmirates StadiumFull-time recap

Arsenal

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3–2Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricArsenalKairat Almaty
Shots25 shots/match▲4 shots/match
Shots on target11 shots/match▲2 shots/match
Expected goals4.06 xG/match▲1.11 xG/match
Possession66%34%
Corners11 corners/match0 corners/match
Fouls14 fouls/match10 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Riccardo Calafiori · Arsenal · 9′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedNoni Madueke · Arsenal · 55′ · 0.02 xG · on targetNoni Madueke · Arsenal · 56′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedRicardinho · Kairat Almaty · 62′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedGabriel Martinelli · Arsenal · 68′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedValeriy Gromyko · Kairat Almaty · 80′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedMartin Ødegaard · Arsenal · 90′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedMyles Lewis-Skelly · Arsenal · 33′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedGabriel Martinelli · Arsenal · 45′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedEberechi Eze · Arsenal · 76′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedNoni Madueke · Arsenal · 27′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedEberechi Eze · Arsenal · 61′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedNoni Madueke · Arsenal · 90′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedChristian Nørgaard · Arsenal · 61′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedNoni Madueke · Arsenal · 89′ · 0.05 xG · on targetKai Havertz · Arsenal · 15′ · 0.06 xG · goalMartin Ødegaard · Arsenal · 64′ · 0.06 xG · on targetViktor Gyökeres · Arsenal · 22′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedViktor Gyökeres · Arsenal · 2′ · 0.10 xG · goalMartin Ødegaard · Arsenal · 47′ · 0.12 xG · on targetGabriel Jesus · Arsenal · 86′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedGabriel Jesus · Arsenal · 90′ · 0.14 xG · on targetGabriel Martinelli · Arsenal · 39′ · 0.19 xG · on targetViktor Gyökeres · Arsenal · 34′ · 0.22 xG · on targetRicardinho · Kairat Almaty · 90′ · 0.27 xG · goalViktor Gyökeres · Arsenal · 25′ · 0.75 xG · off target or blockedViktor Gyökeres · Arsenal · 36′ · 0.78 xG · on targetJorginho · Kairat Almaty · 7′ · 0.82 xG · goalGabriel Martinelli · Arsenal · 36′ · 0.91 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Arsenal: 25 shots, 11 on target, 3.94 xG. Kairat Almaty: 4 shots, 2 on target, 1.13 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

0240′HT90′Viktor Gyökeres · Arsenal · 2′Kai Havertz · Arsenal · 15′Gabriel Martinelli · Arsenal · 36′Jorginho · Kairat Almaty · 7′Ricardinho · Kairat Almaty · 90′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Arsenal 3.94 xG · Kairat Almaty 1.13 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Kairat Almaty's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Arsenal's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. Limitation: Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Kairat Almaty's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Kairat Almaty's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.2 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.88 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.2 goals/match0.88 goals/match1.5 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Arsenal show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Arsenal's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

16.8 shots/match▲ShotsArsenal · Kairat Almaty10.3 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricArsenalKairat AlmatyBaseline
Shots16.8 shots/match10.3 shots/match13.4 shots/match
Shots against11.1 shots/match17.4 shots/match13.1 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Arsenal have recorded the higher season possession share.

54.6%▲PossessionArsenal · Kairat Almaty40.8%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 13.8 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricArsenalKairat AlmatyBaseline
Possession54.6%40.8%50.4%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Arsenal favored in 11 of 14 directional metrics · Kairat Almaty in 0 · 3 too close

2.88 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 8/160.88 goals/match
0.5 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 8/161.63 goals/match
2.51 xG/match▲Expected goalsseason · 8/80.78 xG/match
0.77 xG/match▲Expected goals allowedseason · 8/82.95 xG/match
16.8 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 8/1110.3 shots/match
11.1 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 8/1117.4 shots/match
7.88 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 8/112.91 shots/match
2.75 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 8/117.18 shots/match
54.6%Possessionseason · 8/1140.8%
5.5 corners/matchCornersseason · 8/112.73 corners/match
2.63 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 8/117.45 corners/match
—Cardsseason · 0/0—
12.4 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 8/1111.7 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
63%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 8/1638%
100%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 8/1656%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Arsenal77.4
Kairat Almaty8.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 69%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Arsenal92.1
Kairat Almaty8.9
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 79%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Arsenal89.8
Kairat Almaty21.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 79%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Arsenal72.6
Kairat Almaty39.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 69%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Arsenal70.2
Kairat Almaty53.6
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 34%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Arsenal76.2
Kairat Almaty3.6
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 69%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Arsenal80.9
Kairat Almaty17.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 69%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
3 goals/match▲Goals scored5/51.2 goals/match
0.8 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/52.6 goals/match
2.73 xG/match▲Expected goals5/50.72 xG/match
17.6 shots/match▲Shots5/57.4 shots/match
8.8 shots/match▲Shots on target5/52.4 shots/match
52.6%Possession5/541.6%
7.2 corners/matchCorners5/51 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
11.2 fouls/matchFouls5/511.4 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

8 / 10 matches
2.88 goals/match▲Goals scored8/100.7 goals/match
0.5 goals/match▲Goals allowed8/102.2 goals/match
2.51 xG/match▲Expected goals8/80.78 xG/match
16.8 shots/match▲Shots8/109.9 shots/match
7.88 shots/match▲Shots on target8/102.6 shots/match
54.6%Possession8/1040.4%
5.5 corners/matchCorners8/102.5 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
12.4 fouls/matchFouls8/1010.6 fouls/match

Window

Season

8 / 16 matches
2.88 goals/match▲Goals scored8/160.88 goals/match
0.5 goals/match▲Goals allowed8/161.63 goals/match
2.51 xG/match▲Expected goals8/80.78 xG/match
16.8 shots/match▲Shots8/1110.3 shots/match
7.88 shots/match▲Shots on target8/112.91 shots/match
54.6%Possession8/1140.8%
5.5 corners/matchCorners8/112.73 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
12.4 fouls/matchFouls8/1111.7 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

4 / 8 matches
3 goals/match▲Goals scored4/80.88 goals/match
0.75 goals/match▲Goals allowed4/82 goals/match
2.98 xG/match▲Expected goals4/40.96 xG/match
18 shots/match▲Shots4/69.17 shots/match
8 shots/match▲Shots on target4/63.17 shots/match
54.5%Possession4/636.7%
5.75 corners/matchCorners4/62.33 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
14.5 fouls/matchFouls4/613.2 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

8 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/18.19 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidencelimited
Season samples8 / 16home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
Analysis cutoff: Thu, 29 Jan 2026, 00:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsArsenalKairat Almaty
CompetitionUEFA Champions League
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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