PitchMath
Premier League · 2025Sat, 31 Jan 2026, 15:00 UTCFull timeElland RoadFull-time recap

Leeds

DDLWD
0–4Full-time recap

Arsenal

WWDDL

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricLeedsArsenal
Shots3 shots/match14 shots/match▲
Shots on target1 shots/match8 shots/match▲
Possession50%50%
Corners4 corners/match12 corners/match
Fouls10 fouls/match7 fouls/match
Yellow cards1 cards/match1 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Leeds's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines. A second useful context is: Arsenal have recorded the higher season possession share. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Leeds show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Leeds's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

12.5 shots/match▲ShotsLeeds · Arsenal14.9 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricLeedsArsenalBaseline
Shots12.5 shots/match14.9 shots/match12 shots/match
Shots against11.9 shots/match7.71 shots/match12 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Arsenal have recorded the higher season possession share.

45.7%▲PossessionLeeds · Arsenal57.8%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 12.1 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricLeedsArsenalBaseline
Possession45.7%57.8%50.2%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0Leeds
0Draws
1Arsenal
Arsenal — Leeds · Premier League5–0

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Leeds favored in 0 of 14 directional metrics · Arsenal in 10 · 4 too close

1.29 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 24/24▲1.92 goals/match
1.75 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 24/24▲0.71 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
12.5 shots/matchShotsseason · 24/24▲14.9 shots/match
11.9 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 24/24▲7.71 shots/match
4 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 24/24▲5.04 shots/match
4.13 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 24/24▲2.08 shots/match
45.7%Possessionseason · 24/2457.8%
4.54 corners/matchCornersseason · 24/246.17 corners/match
4.17 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 24/24▲3.04 corners/match
1.5 cards/matchCardsseason · 24/24▲1.38 cards/match
10.1 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 24/2410 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
17%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 24/24▲50%
71%Scoring frequencyseason · 24/24▲88%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Leeds32.5
Arsenal85
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Leeds47.5
Arsenal89.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Leeds40
Arsenal97.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Leeds92.5
Arsenal77.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Leeds27.5
Arsenal17.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Leeds37.5
Arsenal92.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Leeds46.2
Arsenal75
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1.2 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲1.8 goals/match
2 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲1 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
11.2 shots/matchShots5/5▲13 shots/match
3.8 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲4.8 shots/match
44%Possession5/554.2%
5 corners/matchCorners5/57.6 corners/match
1.4 cards/matchCards5/51.4 cards/match
9.6 fouls/matchFouls5/510 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
1.5 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲1.9 goals/match
1.6 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲1 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.7 shots/matchShots10/10▲15.5 shots/match
4.4 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲5 shots/match
45%Possession10/1055.7%
5.4 corners/matchCorners10/106.2 corners/match
1.3 cards/matchCards10/101.5 cards/match
9.3 fouls/matchFouls10/109.5 fouls/match

Window

Season

24 / 24 matches
1.29 goals/matchGoals scored24/24▲1.92 goals/match
1.75 goals/matchGoals allowed24/24▲0.71 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.5 shots/matchShots24/24▲14.9 shots/match
4 shots/matchShots on target24/24▲5.04 shots/match
45.7%Possession24/2457.8%
4.54 corners/matchCorners24/246.17 corners/match
1.5 cards/matchCards24/241.38 cards/match
10.1 fouls/matchFouls24/2410 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

12 / 12 matches
1.58 goals/match▲Goals scored12/121.5 goals/match
1.42 goals/matchGoals allowed12/12▲0.75 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
14.2 shots/matchShots12/1213.5 shots/match
4.42 shots/matchShots on target12/12▲5.17 shots/match
46%Possession12/1256.5%
5.33 corners/matchCorners12/126.42 corners/match
1.67 cards/matchCards12/121.83 cards/match
10.2 fouls/matchFouls12/1210.3 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

4.79 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/15.94 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples24 / 24home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 31 Jan 2026, 19:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsLeedsArsenal
CompetitionPremier League
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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