PitchMath
Premier League · 2025Mon, 26 Jan 2026, 20:00 UTCFull timeHill Dickinson StadiumFull-time recap

Everton

DWLDW
1–1Full-time recap

Leeds

DDDLW

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricEvertonLeeds
Shots10 shots/match14 shots/match▲
Shots on target3 shots/match4 shots/match▲
Possession58%42%
Corners4 corners/match4 corners/match
Fouls9 fouls/match13 fouls/match
Yellow cards0 cards/match▲3 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Everton's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Leeds's away-only shot average is below their full-season average. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Everton's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Everton's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.4 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.09 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.4 goals/match1.09 goals/match1.41 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Leeds have a visible away split

moderate

Leeds's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

10.8 shots/match▲ShotsAway only · Season12.9 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots10.8 shots/match12.9 shots/match12 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0Everton
0Draws
1Leeds
Leeds — Everton · Premier League1–0

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Everton favored in 2 of 14 directional metrics · Leeds in 8 · 4 too close

1.09 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 23/23▲1.35 goals/match
1.13 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 23/231.65 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
10.7 shots/matchShotsseason · 23/23▲12.9 shots/match
13.7 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 23/23▲11.8 shots/match
3.13 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 23/23▲4.13 shots/match
4.17 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 23/23▲3.96 shots/match
43.3%Possessionseason · 23/2345.5%
4.17 corners/matchCornersseason · 23/234.57 corners/match
5.22 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 23/23▲3.83 corners/match
1.96 cards/matchCardsseason · 23/23▲1.52 cards/match
10.3 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 23/2310.1 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
39%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 23/2317%
70%Scoring frequencyseason · 23/23▲74%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Everton17.5
Leeds32.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Everton21.7
Leeds48.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Everton41.7
Leeds47.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Everton62.5
Leeds92.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Everton55
Leeds28.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Everton22.5
Leeds37.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Everton28.8
Leeds46.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1.4 goals/match▲Goals scored5/51.2 goals/match
1.2 goals/matchGoals allowed5/51.2 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
11.4 shots/matchShots5/511.4 shots/match
3.4 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲4 shots/match
43%Possession5/540.4%
3.2 corners/matchCorners5/54.8 corners/match
1.4 cards/matchCards5/51.6 cards/match
10.6 fouls/matchFouls5/59.2 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
1.1 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲1.8 goals/match
0.9 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/101.3 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
11.2 shots/matchShots10/10▲14.1 shots/match
3.4 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲4.8 shots/match
42.4%Possession10/1042.9%
4.2 corners/matchCorners10/105.4 corners/match
1.8 cards/matchCards10/101.3 cards/match
10.7 fouls/matchFouls10/109.3 fouls/match

Window

Season

23 / 23 matches
1.09 goals/matchGoals scored23/23▲1.35 goals/match
1.13 goals/match▲Goals allowed23/231.65 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
10.7 shots/matchShots23/23▲12.9 shots/match
3.13 shots/matchShots on target23/23▲4.13 shots/match
43.3%Possession23/2345.5%
4.17 corners/matchCorners23/234.57 corners/match
1.96 cards/matchCards23/231.52 cards/match
10.3 fouls/matchFouls23/2310.1 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

12 / 12 matches
1.25 goals/match▲Goals scored12/121 goals/match
1.33 goals/match▲Goals allowed12/122.08 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.2 shots/match▲Shots12/1210.8 shots/match
3.67 shots/matchShots on target12/123.58 shots/match
47.4%Possession12/1245.3%
4.92 corners/matchCorners12/123.75 corners/match
2.25 cards/matchCards12/121.33 cards/match
10 fouls/matchFouls12/1210 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

8.15 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/19.21 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples23 / 23home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Tue, 27 Jan 2026, 00:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsEvertonLeeds
CompetitionPremier League
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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