PitchMath
Premier League · 2025Sun, 4 Jan 2026, 12:30 UTCFull timeElland RoadFull-time recap

Leeds

DDWDD
1–1Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricLeedsManchester United
Shots11 shots/match15 shots/match▲
Shots on target3 shots/match▲2 shots/match
Possession45%55%
Corners6 corners/match4 corners/match
Fouls9 fouls/match9 fouls/match
Yellow cards0 cards/match▲1 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Leeds, Manchester United. A second useful context is: Leeds's home-only shot average is above their full-season average. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

moderate

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Leeds, Manchester United.

2.79 days▲Rest daysLeeds · Manchester United4.68 days
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

MetricLeedsManchester UnitedBaseline
Rest days2.79 days4.68 days—
Matches last 14 days2 matches3 matches—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

Leeds have a visible home split

moderate

Leeds's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

15.3 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season12.7 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots15.3 shots/match12.7 shots/match12.1 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Manchester United show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Manchester United's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

12.7 shots/match▲ShotsLeeds · Manchester United16.1 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricLeedsManchester UnitedBaseline
Shots12.7 shots/match16.1 shots/match12.1 shots/match
Shots against11.8 shots/match11.4 shots/match12 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Leeds favored in 2 of 14 directional metrics · Manchester United in 5 · 7 too close

1.3 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 20/20▲1.7 goals/match
1.65 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 20/20▲1.5 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
12.7 shots/matchShotsseason · 20/20▲16.1 shots/match
11.8 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 20/2011.4 shots/match
4 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 20/20▲5.45 shots/match
3.95 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 20/203.9 shots/match
46.1%Possessionseason · 20/2053.5%
4.5 corners/matchCornersseason · 20/204.7 corners/match
3.65 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 20/204.9 corners/match
1.45 cards/matchCardsseason · 20/201.5 cards/match
10.2 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 20/209.55 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
15%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 20/2010%
70%Scoring frequencyseason · 20/20▲85%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Leeds35
Manchester United77.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Leeds47.5
Manchester United94.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Leeds46.7
Manchester United55.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Leeds92.5
Manchester United97.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Leeds30
Manchester United15
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Leeds27.5
Manchester United37.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Leeds45.6
Manchester United61.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1.4 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲1.6 goals/match
0.8 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/51.6 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
14 shots/matchShots5/5▲16 shots/match
4.6 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲5.4 shots/match
46%Possession5/551.6%
6 corners/matchCorners5/54.8 corners/match
0.6 cards/matchCards5/51.4 cards/match
8 fouls/matchFouls5/58.8 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
1.7 goals/matchGoals scored10/101.7 goals/match
1.6 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲1.4 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13.2 shots/matchShots10/10▲16.8 shots/match
4.5 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲5.5 shots/match
44.4%Possession10/1055.7%
4.7 corners/matchCorners10/105.5 corners/match
1.4 cards/matchCards10/101.6 cards/match
10.4 fouls/matchFouls10/1010.3 fouls/match

Window

Season

20 / 20 matches
1.3 goals/matchGoals scored20/20▲1.7 goals/match
1.65 goals/matchGoals allowed20/20▲1.5 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.7 shots/matchShots20/20▲16.1 shots/match
4 shots/matchShots on target20/20▲5.45 shots/match
46.1%Possession20/2053.5%
4.5 corners/matchCorners20/204.7 corners/match
1.45 cards/matchCards20/201.5 cards/match
10.2 fouls/matchFouls20/209.55 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

10 / 10 matches
1.8 goals/match▲Goals scored10/101.6 goals/match
1.3 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/101.7 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
15.3 shots/match▲Shots10/1014.2 shots/match
4.7 shots/matchShots on target10/104.8 shots/match
45.6%Possession10/1053%
5.3 corners/matchCorners10/104.6 corners/match
1.8 cards/matchCards10/101.4 cards/match
10.6 fouls/matchFouls10/108.7 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

2.79 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/14.68 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/13 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples20 / 20home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 4 Jan 2026, 16:30 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsLeedsManchester United
CompetitionPremier League
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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