PitchMath
Premier League · 2025Sun, 4 Jan 2026, 15:00 UTCFull timeHill Dickinson StadiumFull-time recap

Everton

WLLDW
2–4Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricEvertonBrentford
Shots14 shots/match▲11 shots/match
Shots on target6 shots/match7 shots/match▲
Possession45%55%
Corners4 corners/match5 corners/match
Fouls9 fouls/match8 fouls/match
Yellow cards0 cards/match▲2 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Brentford's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Brentford. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Brentford's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Brentford's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2.2 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.6 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for2.2 goals/match1.6 goals/match1.4 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

moderate

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Brentford.

4.81 days▲Rest daysEverton · Brentford2.79 days
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

MetricEvertonBrentfordBaseline
Rest days4.81 days2.79 days—
Matches last 14 days2 matches2 matches—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Everton favored in 3 of 14 directional metrics · Brentford in 5 · 6 too close

1.1 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 20/20▲1.6 goals/match
1.2 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 20/201.4 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
10.8 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 20/209.9 shots/match
13.6 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 20/20▲12.7 shots/match
3.2 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 20/20▲4.15 shots/match
4.15 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 20/204.25 shots/match
42.9%Possessionseason · 20/2046.1%
4.3 corners/matchCornersseason · 20/204.8 corners/match
5.15 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 20/20▲4.85 corners/match
1.9 cards/matchCardsseason · 20/201.95 cards/match
10.2 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 20/2011.1 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
40%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 20/2020%
65%Scoring frequencyseason · 20/20▲75%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Everton12.5
Brentford35
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Everton26.7
Brentford49.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Everton42.5
Brentford37.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Everton67.5
Brentford12.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Everton53.8
Brentford65
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Everton22.5
Brentford45
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Everton30.6
Brentford47.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
0.8 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲2.2 goals/match
1.4 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲0.8 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
11.2 shots/match▲Shots5/59.4 shots/match
3.6 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲4.8 shots/match
39.6%Possession5/554.8%
4 corners/matchCorners5/52.8 corners/match
0.8 cards/matchCards5/51.8 cards/match
8.2 fouls/matchFouls5/59.6 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
1.2 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲1.8 goals/match
1.1 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/101.2 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
10.7 shots/match▲Shots10/109.6 shots/match
3.4 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲4.1 shots/match
41.3%Possession10/1049.6%
4.8 corners/matchCorners10/104.3 corners/match
1.4 cards/matchCards10/101.8 cards/match
9.6 fouls/matchFouls10/1010.5 fouls/match

Window

Season

20 / 20 matches
1.1 goals/matchGoals scored20/20▲1.6 goals/match
1.2 goals/match▲Goals allowed20/201.4 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
10.8 shots/match▲Shots20/209.9 shots/match
3.2 shots/matchShots on target20/20▲4.15 shots/match
42.9%Possession20/2046.1%
4.3 corners/matchCorners20/204.8 corners/match
1.9 cards/matchCards20/201.95 cards/match
10.2 fouls/matchFouls20/2011.1 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

10 / 10 matches
1.3 goals/match▲Goals scored10/101.2 goals/match
1.4 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/101.8 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.3 shots/match▲Shots10/109.1 shots/match
3.9 shots/matchShots on target10/103.8 shots/match
46.6%Possession10/1049.2%
5.3 corners/matchCorners10/106.1 corners/match
2.2 cards/matchCards10/102.2 cards/match
9.8 fouls/matchFouls10/1011.1 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

4.81 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/12.79 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples20 / 20home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 4 Jan 2026, 19:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsEvertonBrentford
CompetitionPremier League
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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