PitchMath
Premier League · 2025Sun, 4 Jan 2026, 15:00 UTCFull timeSt. James' ParkFull-time recap
2–0Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricNewcastleCrystal Palace
Shots12 shots/match▲11 shots/match
Shots on target7 shots/match▲1 shots/match
Possession59%41%
Corners8 corners/match6 corners/match
Fouls5 fouls/match12 fouls/match
Yellow cards1 cards/match▲3 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Crystal Palace's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Crystal Palace. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Crystal Palace's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Crystal Palace's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.4 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.1 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.4 goals/match1.1 goals/match1.4 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

moderate

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Crystal Palace.

4.81 days▲Rest daysNewcastle · Crystal Palace2.9 days
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

MetricNewcastleCrystal PalaceBaseline
Rest days4.81 days2.9 days—
Matches last 14 days2 matches2 matches—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Newcastle have recorded the higher season possession share.

52.4%▲PossessionNewcastle · Crystal Palace43.2%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 9.2 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricNewcastleCrystal PalaceBaseline
Possession52.4%43.2%50.9%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Newcastle favored in 7 of 14 directional metrics · Crystal Palace in 1 · 6 too close

1.4 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 20/201.1 goals/match
1.2 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 20/201.15 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
12.7 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 20/2011.8 shots/match
10.8 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 20/2011.5 shots/match
4.65 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 20/203.8 shots/match
3.75 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 20/204 shots/match
52.4%Possessionseason · 20/2043.2%
6.35 corners/matchCornersseason · 20/203.95 corners/match
5.35 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 20/205.15 corners/match
1.45 cards/match▲Cardsseason · 20/201.8 cards/match
9.3 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 20/209.9 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
30%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 20/20▲35%
75%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 20/2065%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Newcastle62.5
Crystal Palace22.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Newcastle60
Crystal Palace37.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Newcastle75
Crystal Palace65
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Newcastle52.5
Crystal Palace82.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Newcastle6.2
Crystal Palace42.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Newcastle97.5
Crystal Palace17.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Newcastle58.1
Crystal Palace33.1
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1.4 goals/match▲Goals scored5/50.4 goals/match
1 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/52.2 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13 shots/matchShots5/512.4 shots/match
5.2 shots/match▲Shots on target5/52.4 shots/match
55.6%Possession5/545.8%
7 corners/matchCorners5/54.4 corners/match
2 cards/matchCards5/52.2 cards/match
7.2 fouls/matchFouls5/59 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
1.8 goals/match▲Goals scored10/100.8 goals/match
1.3 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/101.4 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.8 shots/match▲Shots10/1011 shots/match
5.4 shots/match▲Shots on target10/102.9 shots/match
53.6%Possession10/1044.6%
6.9 corners/matchCorners10/104.1 corners/match
1.7 cards/matchCards10/101.8 cards/match
6.9 fouls/matchFouls10/109.4 fouls/match

Window

Season

20 / 20 matches
1.4 goals/match▲Goals scored20/201.1 goals/match
1.2 goals/matchGoals allowed20/201.15 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.7 shots/match▲Shots20/2011.8 shots/match
4.65 shots/match▲Shots on target20/203.8 shots/match
52.4%Possession20/2043.2%
6.35 corners/matchCorners20/203.95 corners/match
1.45 cards/matchCards20/201.8 cards/match
9.3 fouls/matchFouls20/209.9 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

10 / 10 matches
1.8 goals/match▲Goals scored10/101.2 goals/match
1.2 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲1.1 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13.8 shots/match▲Shots10/1010.1 shots/match
5.7 shots/match▲Shots on target10/103.6 shots/match
49.6%Possession10/1042.2%
7.4 corners/matchCorners10/104 corners/match
1.3 cards/matchCards10/102.1 cards/match
10.7 fouls/matchFouls10/1010.5 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

4.81 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/12.9 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples20 / 20home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 4 Jan 2026, 19:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsNewcastleCrystal Palace
CompetitionPremier League
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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