PitchMath
Premier League · 2025Wed, 7 Jan 2026, 20:15 UTCFull timeSt. James' ParkFull-time recap
4–3Full-time recap

Leeds

DWDDD

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricNewcastleLeeds
Shots18 shots/match▲14 shots/match
Shots on target8 shots/match▲6 shots/match
Possession63%37%
Corners8 corners/match4 corners/match
Fouls11 fouls/match10 fouls/match
Yellow cards3 cards/match2 cards/match▲

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Newcastle's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Newcastle, Leeds. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Newcastle's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Newcastle's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2.2 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.52 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for2.2 goals/match1.52 goals/match1.45 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

weak

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Newcastle, Leeds.

3.22 days▲Rest daysNewcastle · Leeds3.32 days
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

MetricNewcastleLeedsBaseline
Rest days3.22 days3.32 days—
Matches last 14 days3 matches3 matches—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

Leeds have a visible away split

moderate

Leeds's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

10.5 shots/match▲ShotsAway only · Season12.8 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots10.5 shots/match12.8 shots/match12.2 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0Newcastle
1Draws
0Leeds
Leeds — Newcastle · Premier League0–0

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Newcastle favored in 7 of 14 directional metrics · Leeds in 1 · 6 too close

1.52 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 21/211.38 goals/match
1.29 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 21/211.76 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
13 shots/matchShotsseason · 21/2112.8 shots/match
10.9 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 21/2112.1 shots/match
4.81 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 21/214.1 shots/match
3.86 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 21/214.14 shots/match
52.9%Possessionseason · 21/2145.6%
6.43 corners/matchCornersseason · 21/214.48 corners/match
5.29 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 21/21▲3.86 corners/match
1.52 cards/matchCardsseason · 21/211.48 cards/match
9.38 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 21/2110.1 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
29%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 21/2114%
76%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 21/2171%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Newcastle67.5
Leeds32.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Newcastle65
Leeds47.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Newcastle71.7
Leeds41.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Newcastle47.5
Leeds92.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Newcastle10
Leeds30
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Newcastle97.5
Leeds27.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Newcastle59.4
Leeds45
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
2.2 goals/match▲Goals scored5/51.8 goals/match
1.4 goals/matchGoals allowed5/51.4 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
15.4 shots/match▲Shots5/513.2 shots/match
6.4 shots/match▲Shots on target5/55 shots/match
57.6%Possession5/544.8%
7.4 corners/matchCorners5/56.2 corners/match
1.8 cards/matchCards5/51 cards/match
7.4 fouls/matchFouls5/58.2 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
2.1 goals/match▲Goals scored10/101.9 goals/match
1.3 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/101.7 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
14.1 shots/matchShots10/1013.6 shots/match
6.1 shots/match▲Shots on target10/104.8 shots/match
54.8%Possession10/1042.7%
7.5 corners/matchCorners10/104.7 corners/match
1.6 cards/matchCards10/101.5 cards/match
8 fouls/matchFouls10/1010.3 fouls/match

Window

Season

21 / 21 matches
1.52 goals/match▲Goals scored21/211.38 goals/match
1.29 goals/match▲Goals allowed21/211.76 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13 shots/matchShots21/2112.8 shots/match
4.81 shots/match▲Shots on target21/214.1 shots/match
52.9%Possession21/2145.6%
6.43 corners/matchCorners21/214.48 corners/match
1.52 cards/matchCards21/211.48 cards/match
9.38 fouls/matchFouls21/2110.1 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

11 / 11 matches
2 goals/match▲Goals scored11/111 goals/match
1.36 goals/match▲Goals allowed11/112.18 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
14.2 shots/match▲Shots11/1110.5 shots/match
5.91 shots/match▲Shots on target11/113.55 shots/match
50.8%Possession11/1145.6%
7.45 corners/matchCorners11/113.73 corners/match
1.45 cards/matchCards11/111.18 cards/match
10.7 fouls/matchFouls11/119.73 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

3.22 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/13.32 days
3 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/13 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples21 / 21home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Thu, 8 Jan 2026, 00:15 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsNewcastleLeeds
CompetitionPremier League
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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