PitchMath
Premier League · 2025Wed, 7 Jan 2026, 19:30 UTCFull timeVitality StadiumFull-time recap
3–2Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricBournemouthTottenham
Shots11 shots/match16 shots/match▲
Shots on target3 shots/match4 shots/match▲
Possession42%58%
Corners3 corners/match7 corners/match
Fouls19 fouls/match10 fouls/match
Yellow cards3 cards/match3 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Tottenham's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Bournemouth, Tottenham. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Tottenham's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Tottenham's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.43 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1 goals/match1.43 goals/match1.45 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

weak

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Bournemouth, Tottenham.

4.08 days▲Rest daysBournemouth · Tottenham3.19 days
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

MetricBournemouthTottenhamBaseline
Rest days4.08 days3.19 days—
Matches last 14 days3 matches3 matches—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

1Bournemouth
0Draws
0Tottenham
Tottenham — Bournemouth · Premier League0–1

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Bournemouth favored in 5 of 14 directional metrics · Tottenham in 4 · 5 too close

1.62 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 21/211.43 goals/match
1.9 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 21/21▲1.29 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
13.8 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 21/2110.2 shots/match
12.4 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 21/21▲11.5 shots/match
4.95 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 21/213.43 shots/match
4.67 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 21/21▲3.95 shots/match
50.6%Possessionseason · 21/2151.1%
5.67 corners/matchCornersseason · 21/215.19 corners/match
4.67 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 21/215.05 corners/match
2.48 cards/match▲Cardsseason · 21/212.71 cards/match
12.9 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 21/2110.9 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
24%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 21/21▲33%
81%Scoring frequencyseason · 21/2181%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Bournemouth47.5
Tottenham52.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Bournemouth76.7
Tottenham31.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Bournemouth26.7
Tottenham61.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Bournemouth87.5
Tottenham2.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Bournemouth87.5
Tottenham78.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Bournemouth80
Tottenham57.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Bournemouth81.9
Tottenham41.9
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1.8 goals/match▲Goals scored5/51 goals/match
2.4 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲1.2 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
15.8 shots/match▲Shots5/512.2 shots/match
4.6 shots/match▲Shots on target5/54 shots/match
47%Possession5/544.8%
6.6 corners/matchCorners5/53 corners/match
2 cards/matchCards5/53.2 cards/match
12.6 fouls/matchFouls5/58.4 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
1.7 goals/match▲Goals scored10/101.1 goals/match
2.2 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲1.7 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
15.7 shots/match▲Shots10/1010.7 shots/match
5.5 shots/match▲Shots on target10/103.4 shots/match
50.5%Possession10/1048.2%
5.5 corners/matchCorners10/104.2 corners/match
2.5 cards/matchCards10/103.1 cards/match
12.6 fouls/matchFouls10/1010.1 fouls/match

Window

Season

21 / 21 matches
1.62 goals/match▲Goals scored21/211.43 goals/match
1.9 goals/matchGoals allowed21/21▲1.29 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13.8 shots/match▲Shots21/2110.2 shots/match
4.95 shots/match▲Shots on target21/213.43 shots/match
50.6%Possession21/2151.1%
5.67 corners/matchCorners21/215.19 corners/match
2.48 cards/matchCards21/212.71 cards/match
12.9 fouls/matchFouls21/2110.9 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

11 / 11 matches
1.45 goals/matchGoals scored11/11▲1.64 goals/match
1 goals/match▲Goals allowed11/111.36 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13.6 shots/match▲Shots11/119.36 shots/match
4.18 shots/match▲Shots on target11/113.27 shots/match
53.9%Possession11/1148.9%
5.18 corners/matchCorners11/115.09 corners/match
2.18 cards/matchCards11/112.36 cards/match
12.9 fouls/matchFouls11/1110.6 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

4.08 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/13.19 days
3 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/13 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples21 / 21home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Wed, 7 Jan 2026, 23:30 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsBournemouthTottenham
CompetitionPremier League
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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