PitchMath
Premier League · 2025Wed, 7 Jan 2026, 19:30 UTCFull timeSelhurst ParkFull-time recap
0–0Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricCrystal PalaceAston Villa
Shots11 shots/match15 shots/match▲
Shots on target5 shots/match▲3 shots/match
Possession41%59%
Corners3 corners/match5 corners/match
Fouls8 fouls/match3 fouls/match
Yellow cards2 cards/match0 cards/match▲

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Crystal Palace's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Crystal Palace, Aston Villa. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Crystal Palace's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Crystal Palace's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.4 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.05 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.4 goals/match1.05 goals/match1.45 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

weak

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Crystal Palace, Aston Villa.

3.19 days▲Rest daysCrystal Palace · Aston Villa4.29 days
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

MetricCrystal PalaceAston VillaBaseline
Rest days3.19 days4.29 days—
Matches last 14 days3 matches3 matches—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Aston Villa have recorded the higher season possession share.

43%▲PossessionCrystal Palace · Aston Villa53%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 10.0 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricCrystal PalaceAston VillaBaseline
Possession43%53%50.8%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

1Crystal Palace
0Draws
0Aston Villa
Aston Villa — Crystal Palace · Premier League0–3

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Crystal Palace favored in 3 of 14 directional metrics · Aston Villa in 5 · 6 too close

1.05 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 21/21▲1.57 goals/match
1.1 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 21/211.14 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
11.7 shots/matchShotsseason · 21/2111.7 shots/match
11.6 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 21/2113 shots/match
3.86 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 21/21▲4.29 shots/match
3.95 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 21/214.24 shots/match
43%Possessionseason · 21/2153%
3.9 corners/matchCornersseason · 21/215 corners/match
5.14 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 21/21▲4.71 corners/match
1.81 cards/matchCardsseason · 21/21▲1.57 cards/match
9.81 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 21/219.52 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
38%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 21/2129%
62%Scoring frequencyseason · 21/21▲71%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Crystal Palace17.5
Aston Villa72.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Crystal Palace34.2
Aston Villa54.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Crystal Palace67.5
Aston Villa45.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Crystal Palace82.5
Aston Villa17.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Crystal Palace40
Aston Villa20
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Crystal Palace17.5
Aston Villa52.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Crystal Palace31.2
Aston Villa42.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
0.4 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲1.6 goals/match
1.6 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲1.4 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
11.4 shots/matchShots5/512 shots/match
2.6 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲4.4 shots/match
46.2%Possession5/553.2%
4.6 corners/matchCorners5/54.8 corners/match
2.2 cards/matchCards5/51.6 cards/match
8.8 fouls/matchFouls5/56.8 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
0.8 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲2 goals/match
1.4 goals/matchGoals allowed10/101.4 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
11.1 shots/matchShots10/10▲12.6 shots/match
3.2 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲5.1 shots/match
44.5%Possession10/1052%
4 corners/matchCorners10/104.6 corners/match
1.9 cards/matchCards10/101.3 cards/match
9.2 fouls/matchFouls10/109.5 fouls/match

Window

Season

21 / 21 matches
1.05 goals/matchGoals scored21/21▲1.57 goals/match
1.1 goals/matchGoals allowed21/211.14 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
11.7 shots/matchShots21/2111.7 shots/match
3.86 shots/matchShots on target21/21▲4.29 shots/match
43%Possession21/2153%
3.9 corners/matchCorners21/215 corners/match
1.81 cards/matchCards21/211.57 cards/match
9.81 fouls/matchFouls21/219.52 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

11 / 11 matches
0.91 goals/matchGoals scored11/11▲1.36 goals/match
1.09 goals/match▲Goals allowed11/111.45 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13.2 shots/match▲Shots11/1111.5 shots/match
4.09 shots/match▲Shots on target11/113.73 shots/match
43.8%Possession11/1154.4%
3.82 corners/matchCorners11/114.91 corners/match
1.55 cards/matchCards11/111.82 cards/match
9.18 fouls/matchFouls11/119.82 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

3.19 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/14.29 days
3 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/13 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples21 / 21home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Wed, 7 Jan 2026, 23:30 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsCrystal PalaceAston Villa
CompetitionPremier League
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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