PitchMath
Premier League · 2025Sat, 3 Jan 2026, 12:30 UTCFull timeVilla ParkFull-time recap
3–1Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricAston VillaNottingham Forest
Shots11 shots/match▲10 shots/match
Shots on target4 shots/match5 shots/match▲
Possession73%27%
Corners4 corners/match4 corners/match
Fouls10 fouls/match20 fouls/match
Yellow cards1 cards/match▲2 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Aston Villa's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Aston Villa, Nottingham Forest. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Aston Villa's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Aston Villa's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2.2 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.65 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for2.2 goals/match1.65 goals/match1.39 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

weak

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Aston Villa, Nottingham Forest.

3.68 days▲Rest daysAston Villa · Nottingham Forest3.71 days
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

MetricAston VillaNottingham ForestBaseline
Rest days3.68 days3.71 days—
Matches last 14 days3 matches3 matches—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

Nottingham Forest have a visible away split

moderate

Nottingham Forest's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

9.8 shots/match▲ShotsAway only · Season12.4 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots9.8 shots/match12.4 shots/match12.1 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Aston Villa favored in 5 of 14 directional metrics · Nottingham Forest in 2 · 7 too close

1.65 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 20/200.95 goals/match
1.2 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 20/201.65 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
11.5 shots/matchShotsseason · 20/20▲12.4 shots/match
13.1 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 20/2012.7 shots/match
4.35 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 20/204 shots/match
4.2 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 20/204.4 shots/match
52.7%Possessionseason · 20/2049.7%
5 corners/matchCornersseason · 20/205.45 corners/match
4.8 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 20/20▲4.4 corners/match
1.65 cards/matchCardsseason · 20/201.7 cards/match
9.85 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 20/2011.3 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
25%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 20/2015%
75%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 20/2050%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Aston Villa72.5
Nottingham Forest42.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Aston Villa59.2
Nottingham Forest35
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Aston Villa42.5
Nottingham Forest29.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Aston Villa22.5
Nottingham Forest67.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Aston Villa27.5
Nottingham Forest57.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Aston Villa52.5
Nottingham Forest72.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Aston Villa45
Nottingham Forest61.9
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
2.2 goals/match▲Goals scored5/51 goals/match
1.8 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲1.6 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
10.4 shots/matchShots5/5▲13 shots/match
4.6 shots/match▲Shots on target5/54.2 shots/match
53.2%Possession5/545.8%
4.4 corners/matchCorners5/55.2 corners/match
2 cards/matchCards5/51.8 cards/match
8.8 fouls/matchFouls5/510.8 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
2.4 goals/match▲Goals scored10/101.2 goals/match
1.4 goals/matchGoals allowed10/101.4 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.7 shots/matchShots10/1013 shots/match
5.6 shots/match▲Shots on target10/104.3 shots/match
51.3%Possession10/1046.1%
4.7 corners/matchCorners10/105.9 corners/match
1.5 cards/matchCards10/101.6 cards/match
10 fouls/matchFouls10/1010.9 fouls/match

Window

Season

20 / 20 matches
1.65 goals/match▲Goals scored20/200.95 goals/match
1.2 goals/match▲Goals allowed20/201.65 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
11.5 shots/matchShots20/20▲12.4 shots/match
4.35 shots/match▲Shots on target20/204 shots/match
52.7%Possession20/2049.7%
5 corners/matchCorners20/205.45 corners/match
1.65 cards/matchCards20/201.7 cards/match
9.85 fouls/matchFouls20/2011.3 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

10 / 10 matches
1.8 goals/match▲Goals scored10/100.7 goals/match
0.8 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/101.6 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
11.9 shots/match▲Shots10/109.8 shots/match
4.9 shots/match▲Shots on target10/103.8 shots/match
51.5%Possession10/1047.5%
5.1 corners/matchCorners10/104.3 corners/match
1.3 cards/matchCards10/102.1 cards/match
9.2 fouls/matchFouls10/1011.8 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

3.68 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/13.71 days
3 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/13 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples20 / 20home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 3 Jan 2026, 16:30 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsAston VillaNottingham Forest
CompetitionPremier League
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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