PitchMath
Premier League · 2025Sat, 3 Jan 2026, 15:00 UTCFull timeAmex StadiumFull-time recap
2–0Full-time recap

Burnley

LLDDL

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricBrightonBurnley
Shots15 shots/match▲5 shots/match
Shots on target4 shots/match▲3 shots/match
Possession60%40%
Corners4 corners/match4 corners/match
Fouls7 fouls/match17 fouls/match
Yellow cards0 cards/match▲4 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Brighton's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Brighton, Burnley. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Brighton's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Brighton's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.5 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1 goals/match1.5 goals/match1.39 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

weak

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Brighton, Burnley.

3.81 days▲Rest daysBrighton · Burnley3.81 days
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

MetricBrightonBurnleyBaseline
Rest days3.81 days3.81 days—
Matches last 14 days3 matches3 matches—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

Brighton show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Brighton's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

13.6 shots/match▲ShotsBrighton · Burnley9 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricBrightonBurnleyBaseline
Shots13.6 shots/match9 shots/match12.1 shots/match
Shots against12.3 shots/match15.7 shots/match11.9 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Brighton favored in 9 of 14 directional metrics · Burnley in 1 · 4 too close

1.5 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 20/201 goals/match
1.35 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 20/201.95 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
13.6 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 20/209 shots/match
12.3 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 20/2015.7 shots/match
4.5 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 20/203.1 shots/match
4.15 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 20/205.4 shots/match
52.5%Possessionseason · 20/2041.6%
4.8 corners/matchCornersseason · 20/203.75 corners/match
4.55 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 20/206 corners/match
2.45 cards/matchCardsseason · 20/20▲1.7 cards/match
12.1 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 20/2010.1 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
25%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 20/2015%
80%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 20/2065%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Brighton67.5
Burnley2.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Brighton65.8
Burnley9.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Brighton45.8
Burnley7.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Brighton72.5
Burnley17.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Brighton86.2
Burnley40
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Brighton47.5
Burnley12.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Brighton67.5
Burnley17.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1 goals/match▲Goals scored5/50.8 goals/match
1.2 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/51.8 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13.8 shots/match▲Shots5/511.2 shots/match
3.6 shots/match▲Shots on target5/53.2 shots/match
55.2%Possession5/545.8%
3.2 corners/matchCorners5/55.2 corners/match
2.4 cards/matchCards5/51.6 cards/match
12.8 fouls/matchFouls5/510.6 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
1.3 goals/match▲Goals scored10/100.8 goals/match
1.2 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/102 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
14.5 shots/match▲Shots10/1010.6 shots/match
4.3 shots/match▲Shots on target10/103.4 shots/match
57%Possession10/1046.6%
4.8 corners/matchCorners10/104.9 corners/match
2.5 cards/matchCards10/101.7 cards/match
11.8 fouls/matchFouls10/1010.6 fouls/match

Window

Season

20 / 20 matches
1.5 goals/match▲Goals scored20/201 goals/match
1.35 goals/match▲Goals allowed20/201.95 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13.6 shots/match▲Shots20/209 shots/match
4.5 shots/match▲Shots on target20/203.1 shots/match
52.5%Possession20/2041.6%
4.8 corners/matchCorners20/203.75 corners/match
2.45 cards/matchCards20/201.7 cards/match
12.1 fouls/matchFouls20/2010.1 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

10 / 10 matches
1.8 goals/match▲Goals scored10/101.2 goals/match
1.1 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/102.6 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
14.4 shots/match▲Shots10/108.5 shots/match
5.1 shots/match▲Shots on target10/103.4 shots/match
52.4%Possession10/1039.9%
5 corners/matchCorners10/104.1 corners/match
1.6 cards/matchCards10/102.1 cards/match
11.1 fouls/matchFouls10/1010.5 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

3.81 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/13.81 days
3 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/13 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples20 / 20home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 3 Jan 2026, 19:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsBrightonBurnley
CompetitionPremier League
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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