PitchMath
Premier League · 2025Tue, 30 Dec 2025, 19:30 UTCFull timeTurf MoorFull-time recap

Burnley

LLLDD
1–3Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricBurnleyNewcastle
Shots15 shots/match20 shots/match▲
Shots on target4 shots/match9 shots/match▲
Possession48%52%
Corners3 corners/match4 corners/match
Fouls9 fouls/match3 fouls/match
Yellow cards2 cards/match1 cards/match▲

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Burnley's last-five shots average is above their season average. A second useful context is: A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Burnley, Newcastle. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Burnley's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Burnley's last-five shots average is above their season average.

12 shots/match▲ShotsLast 5 · Season9.21 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Shots12 shots/match9.21 shots/match12.2 shots/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

weak

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Burnley, Newcastle.

3.19 days▲Rest daysBurnley · Newcastle3.98 days
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

MetricBurnleyNewcastleBaseline
Rest days3.19 days3.98 days—
Matches last 14 days2 matches2 matches—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

Newcastle show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Newcastle's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

9.21 shots/match▲ShotsBurnley · Newcastle12.7 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricBurnleyNewcastleBaseline
Shots9.21 shots/match12.7 shots/match12.2 shots/match
Shots against15.7 shots/match10.7 shots/match12 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0Burnley
0Draws
1Newcastle
Newcastle — Burnley · Premier League2–1

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Burnley favored in 0 of 14 directional metrics · Newcastle in 10 · 4 too close

1.05 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 19/19▲1.37 goals/match
1.95 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 19/19▲1.26 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
9.21 shots/matchShotsseason · 19/19▲12.7 shots/match
15.7 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 19/19▲10.7 shots/match
3.11 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 19/19▲4.53 shots/match
5.47 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 19/19▲3.89 shots/match
41.6%Possessionseason · 19/1952.1%
3.74 corners/matchCornersseason · 19/196.26 corners/match
6.11 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 19/19▲5.32 corners/match
1.58 cards/matchCardsseason · 19/19▲1.47 cards/match
9.74 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 19/199.53 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
16%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 19/19▲26%
68%Scoring frequencyseason · 19/19▲74%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Burnley2.5
Newcastle67.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Burnley13.3
Newcastle55
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Burnley5.8
Newcastle72.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Burnley12.5
Newcastle52.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Burnley20
Newcastle5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Burnley17.5
Newcastle97.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Burnley15
Newcastle56.9
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲1.4 goals/match
1.8 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲1.2 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12 shots/matchShots5/5▲14 shots/match
3.2 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲5.2 shots/match
43.8%Possession5/557.8%
6.2 corners/matchCorners5/57.2 corners/match
1.4 cards/matchCards5/52.2 cards/match
9.4 fouls/matchFouls5/58 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
0.8 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲1.7 goals/match
2 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲1.6 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
10.4 shots/matchShots10/10▲12.8 shots/match
3.1 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲5.1 shots/match
47.2%Possession10/1054%
4.6 corners/matchCorners10/106.7 corners/match
1.5 cards/matchCards10/101.8 cards/match
9.9 fouls/matchFouls10/107.4 fouls/match

Window

Season

19 / 19 matches
1.05 goals/matchGoals scored19/19▲1.37 goals/match
1.95 goals/matchGoals allowed19/19▲1.26 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
9.21 shots/matchShots19/19▲12.7 shots/match
3.11 shots/matchShots on target19/19▲4.53 shots/match
41.6%Possession19/1952.1%
3.74 corners/matchCorners19/196.26 corners/match
1.58 cards/matchCards19/191.47 cards/match
9.74 fouls/matchFouls19/199.53 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

10 / 10 matches
0.8 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲1 goals/match
1.3 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲1.2 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
9.5 shots/matchShots10/10▲11.6 shots/match
2.8 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲3.6 shots/match
43.2%Possession10/1055.2%
3.4 corners/matchCorners10/105.3 corners/match
1.3 cards/matchCards10/101.6 cards/match
9.7 fouls/matchFouls10/107.9 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

3.19 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/13.98 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples19 / 19home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Tue, 30 Dec 2025, 23:30 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsBurnleyNewcastle
CompetitionPremier League
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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