PitchMath
Premier League · 2025Fri, 26 Dec 2025, 20:00 UTCFull timeOld TraffordFull-time recap
1–0Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricManchester UnitedNewcastle
Shots10 shots/match16 shots/match▲
Shots on target4 shots/match▲3 shots/match
Possession33%67%
Corners2 corners/match11 corners/match
Fouls9 fouls/match5 fouls/match
Yellow cards2 cards/match1 cards/match▲

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Manchester United's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Manchester United's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Manchester United's recent record differs from the season

weak

Manchester United's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2.2 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.78 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for2.2 goals/match1.78 goals/match1.41 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Manchester United show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

Manchester United's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

16.2 shots/match▲ShotsManchester United · Newcastle12.3 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricManchester UnitedNewcastleBaseline
Shots16.2 shots/match12.3 shots/match12 shots/match
Shots against11.4 shots/match10.5 shots/match11.7 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Manchester United favored in 5 of 14 directional metrics · Newcastle in 4 · 5 too close

1.78 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 18/181.28 goals/match
1.56 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 18/18▲1.28 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
16.2 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 18/1812.3 shots/match
11.4 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 18/18▲10.5 shots/match
5.61 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 18/184.28 shots/match
3.94 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 18/183.89 shots/match
53.2%Possessionseason · 18/1852.1%
4.56 corners/matchCornersseason · 18/186.39 corners/match
4.89 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 18/185.44 corners/match
1.61 cards/matchCardsseason · 18/18▲1.5 cards/match
9.61 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 18/189.89 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
11%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 18/18▲28%
83%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 18/1872%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Manchester United77.5
Newcastle62.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Manchester United94.2
Newcastle52.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Manchester United52.5
Newcastle70.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Manchester United97.5
Newcastle37.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Manchester United12.5
Newcastle15
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Manchester United32.5
Newcastle97.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Manchester United57.5
Newcastle60
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
2.2 goals/match▲Goals scored5/51.2 goals/match
1.6 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲1.4 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
18.8 shots/match▲Shots5/513.8 shots/match
6.6 shots/match▲Shots on target5/54.8 shots/match
55%Possession5/558%
5.4 corners/matchCorners5/58.6 corners/match
2 cards/matchCards5/52 cards/match
10.2 fouls/matchFouls5/58.4 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
2.1 goals/match▲Goals scored10/101.6 goals/match
1.6 goals/matchGoals allowed10/101.6 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
16.9 shots/match▲Shots10/1012.6 shots/match
6.3 shots/match▲Shots on target10/104.9 shots/match
54.9%Possession10/1053.9%
4.9 corners/matchCorners10/106.7 corners/match
1.8 cards/matchCards10/101.7 cards/match
8.9 fouls/matchFouls10/108.2 fouls/match

Window

Season

18 / 18 matches
1.78 goals/match▲Goals scored18/181.28 goals/match
1.56 goals/matchGoals allowed18/18▲1.28 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
16.2 shots/match▲Shots18/1812.3 shots/match
5.61 shots/match▲Shots on target18/184.28 shots/match
53.2%Possession18/1852.1%
4.56 corners/matchCorners18/186.39 corners/match
1.61 cards/matchCards18/181.5 cards/match
9.61 fouls/matchFouls18/189.89 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

9 / 9 matches
1.89 goals/match▲Goals scored9/90.78 goals/match
1.33 goals/matchGoals allowed9/9▲1.22 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
18.2 shots/match▲Shots9/910.7 shots/match
6.11 shots/match▲Shots on target9/93 shots/match
53.7%Possession9/955.6%
4.44 corners/matchCorners9/95.44 corners/match
1.78 cards/matchCards9/91.67 cards/match
10.6 fouls/matchFouls9/98.44 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

5.15 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/16.31 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples18 / 18home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 27 Dec 2025, 00:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsManchester UnitedNewcastle
CompetitionPremier League
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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