PitchMath
Premier League · 2025Sat, 27 Dec 2025, 15:00 UTCFull timeEmirates StadiumFull-time recap

Arsenal

DWLWW
2–1Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricArsenalBrighton
Shots24 shots/match▲8 shots/match
Shots on target6 shots/match▲3 shots/match
Possession53%47%
Corners7 corners/match2 corners/match
Fouls7 fouls/match13 fouls/match
Yellow cards2 cards/match▲3 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Brighton's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: Arsenal's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Brighton's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Brighton's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.44 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1 goals/match1.44 goals/match1.43 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Arsenal show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Arsenal's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

15 shots/match▲ShotsArsenal · Brighton13.3 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricArsenalBrightonBaseline
Shots15 shots/match13.3 shots/match11.8 shots/match
Shots against7.33 shots/match12.8 shots/match11.8 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Arsenal favored in 10 of 14 directional metrics · Brighton in 0 · 4 too close

1.83 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 18/181.44 goals/match
0.61 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 18/181.39 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
15 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 18/1813.3 shots/match
7.33 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 18/1812.8 shots/match
5 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 18/184.44 shots/match
2.22 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 18/184.22 shots/match
59.4%Possessionseason · 18/1851.6%
5.94 corners/matchCornersseason · 18/184.83 corners/match
2.94 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 18/184.56 corners/match
1.33 cards/match▲Cardsseason · 18/182.44 cards/match
9.61 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 18/1812.1 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
50%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 18/1822%
94%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 18/1878%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Arsenal92.5
Brighton57.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Arsenal87.5
Brighton63.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Arsenal97.5
Brighton44.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Arsenal72.5
Brighton77.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Arsenal3.8
Brighton85
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Arsenal92.5
Brighton40
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Arsenal66.9
Brighton66.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1.6 goals/match▲Goals scored5/51 goals/match
0.8 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/51.8 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
16.6 shots/match▲Shots5/515.2 shots/match
5.2 shots/match▲Shots on target5/53.8 shots/match
60.4%Possession5/555.8%
5 corners/matchCorners5/54.4 corners/match
1.2 cards/matchCards5/52.2 cards/match
6.8 fouls/matchFouls5/512.2 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
1.8 goals/match▲Goals scored10/101.4 goals/match
0.8 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/101.4 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
14.7 shots/matchShots10/1014.5 shots/match
5.6 shots/match▲Shots on target10/104.5 shots/match
60%Possession10/1055.5%
4.4 corners/matchCorners10/104.9 corners/match
1.5 cards/matchCards10/102.2 cards/match
9 fouls/matchFouls10/1011.6 fouls/match

Window

Season

18 / 18 matches
1.83 goals/match▲Goals scored18/181.44 goals/match
0.61 goals/match▲Goals allowed18/181.39 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
15 shots/match▲Shots18/1813.3 shots/match
5 shots/match▲Shots on target18/184.44 shots/match
59.4%Possession18/1851.6%
5.94 corners/matchCorners18/184.83 corners/match
1.33 cards/matchCards18/182.44 cards/match
9.61 fouls/matchFouls18/1812.1 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

9 / 9 matches
2.44 goals/match▲Goals scored9/91.11 goals/match
0.44 goals/match▲Goals allowed9/91.56 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
16.6 shots/match▲Shots9/912.3 shots/match
4.89 shots/match▲Shots on target9/93.67 shots/match
62%Possession9/951.7%
6.22 corners/matchCorners9/94.56 corners/match
0.56 cards/matchCards9/93.11 cards/match
8.78 fouls/matchFouls9/912.6 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

6.79 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples18 / 18home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 27 Dec 2025, 19:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsArsenalBrighton
CompetitionPremier League
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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