PitchMath
Premier League · 2025Tue, 30 Dec 2025, 20:15 UTCFull timeEmirates StadiumFull-time recap

Arsenal

WLWWW
4–1Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricArsenalAston Villa
Shots22 shots/match▲11 shots/match
Shots on target7 shots/match▲3 shots/match
Possession46%54%
Corners3 corners/match3 corners/match
Fouls18 fouls/match9 fouls/match
Yellow cards2 cards/match▲3 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Arsenal, Aston Villa. A second useful context is: Aston Villa's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

weak

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Arsenal, Aston Villa.

3.22 days▲Rest daysArsenal · Aston Villa3.11 days
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

MetricArsenalAston VillaBaseline
Rest days3.22 days3.11 days—
Matches last 14 days2 matches2 matches—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

Aston Villa's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Aston Villa's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.58 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for2 goals/match1.58 goals/match1.43 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Aston Villa show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Aston Villa's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

15.4 shots/match▲ShotsArsenal · Aston Villa11.5 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricArsenalAston VillaBaseline
Shots15.4 shots/match11.5 shots/match12.2 shots/match
Shots against7.53 shots/match13.3 shots/match12 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0Arsenal
0Draws
1Aston Villa
Aston Villa — Arsenal · Premier League2–1

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Arsenal favored in 10 of 14 directional metrics · Aston Villa in 0 · 4 too close

1.95 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 19/191.58 goals/match
0.63 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 19/191.21 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
15.4 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 19/1911.5 shots/match
7.53 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 19/1913.3 shots/match
5.11 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 19/194.37 shots/match
2.26 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 19/194.16 shots/match
58.7%Possessionseason · 19/1951.6%
5.79 corners/matchCornersseason · 19/195.05 corners/match
2.95 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 19/194.84 corners/match
1.37 cards/match▲Cardsseason · 19/191.68 cards/match
10.1 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 19/199.84 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
47%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 19/1926%
95%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 19/1974%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Arsenal87.5
Aston Villa62.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Arsenal89.2
Aston Villa57.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Arsenal97.5
Aston Villa47.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Arsenal77.5
Aston Villa22.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Arsenal22.5
Aston Villa28.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Arsenal87.5
Aston Villa52.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Arsenal76.2
Aston Villa43.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
2 goals/matchGoals scored5/52 goals/match
1 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/51.8 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
18 shots/match▲Shots5/511.2 shots/match
5.2 shots/matchShots on target5/55 shots/match
57.2%Possession5/548%
4.8 corners/matchCorners5/54.2 corners/match
1.6 cards/matchCards5/51.8 cards/match
9 fouls/matchFouls5/58.8 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
2.1 goals/matchGoals scored10/102.1 goals/match
0.9 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/101.5 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
15.9 shots/match▲Shots10/1012.6 shots/match
6 shots/match▲Shots on target10/105.5 shots/match
58.6%Possession10/1048.7%
4.3 corners/matchCorners10/104.7 corners/match
1.7 cards/matchCards10/101.7 cards/match
10.2 fouls/matchFouls10/1010.1 fouls/match

Window

Season

19 / 19 matches
1.95 goals/match▲Goals scored19/191.58 goals/match
0.63 goals/match▲Goals allowed19/191.21 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
15.4 shots/match▲Shots19/1911.5 shots/match
5.11 shots/match▲Shots on target19/194.37 shots/match
58.7%Possession19/1951.6%
5.79 corners/matchCorners19/195.05 corners/match
1.37 cards/matchCards19/191.68 cards/match
10.1 fouls/matchFouls19/199.84 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

10 / 10 matches
2.6 goals/match▲Goals scored10/101.5 goals/match
0.5 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/101.6 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
17.1 shots/match▲Shots10/1011.1 shots/match
5.1 shots/match▲Shots on target10/103.8 shots/match
60.4%Possession10/1053.9%
5.9 corners/matchCorners10/104.9 corners/match
0.7 cards/matchCards10/102 cards/match
9.7 fouls/matchFouls10/1010.5 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

3.22 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/13.11 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples19 / 19home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Wed, 31 Dec 2025, 00:15 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsArsenalAston Villa
CompetitionPremier League
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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