PitchMath
Premier League · 2025Sat, 27 Dec 2025, 17:30 UTCFull timeStamford BridgeFull-time recap

Chelsea

DLDWD
1–2Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricChelseaAston Villa
Shots14 shots/match▲11 shots/match
Shots on target3 shots/match8 shots/match▲
Possession63%37%
Corners6 corners/match7 corners/match
Fouls16 fouls/match8 fouls/match
Yellow cards5 cards/match3 cards/match▲

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Aston Villa's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Chelsea's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Aston Villa's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Aston Villa's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2.6 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.61 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for2.6 goals/match1.61 goals/match1.43 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Chelsea show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

Chelsea's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

14.1 shots/match▲ShotsChelsea · Aston Villa11.6 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricChelseaAston VillaBaseline
Shots14.1 shots/match11.6 shots/match11.8 shots/match
Shots against10.2 shots/match12.8 shots/match11.8 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Chelsea favored in 7 of 14 directional metrics · Aston Villa in 1 · 6 too close

1.67 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 18/181.61 goals/match
1.06 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 18/181.06 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
14.1 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 18/1811.6 shots/match
10.2 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 18/1812.8 shots/match
4.94 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 18/184.44 shots/match
3.44 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 18/184 shots/match
58.7%Possessionseason · 18/1851.5%
5.5 corners/matchCornersseason · 18/185.17 corners/match
4.33 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 18/184.94 corners/match
2.56 cards/matchCardsseason · 18/18▲1.61 cards/match
12 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 18/189.89 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
44%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 18/1828%
89%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 18/1872%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Chelsea87.5
Aston Villa52.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Chelsea78.3
Aston Villa60
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Chelsea85
Aston Villa59.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Chelsea47.5
Aston Villa22.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Chelsea87.5
Aston Villa25
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Chelsea72.5
Aston Villa57.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Chelsea77.5
Aston Villa47.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1.2 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲2.6 goals/match
1.4 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/51.6 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13.8 shots/match▲Shots5/511.8 shots/match
3.6 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲6.4 shots/match
61.2%Possession5/546%
3.2 corners/matchCorners5/54.8 corners/match
3 cards/matchCards5/51.6 cards/match
13.8 fouls/matchFouls5/58.8 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
1.4 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲2.1 goals/match
1 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/101.1 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
14.6 shots/match▲Shots10/1012.4 shots/match
5.1 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲5.5 shots/match
58.4%Possession10/1048%
5.2 corners/matchCorners10/104.9 corners/match
2.4 cards/matchCards10/101.5 cards/match
12.8 fouls/matchFouls10/1010 fouls/match

Window

Season

18 / 18 matches
1.67 goals/matchGoals scored18/181.61 goals/match
1.06 goals/matchGoals allowed18/181.06 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
14.1 shots/match▲Shots18/1811.6 shots/match
4.94 shots/match▲Shots on target18/184.44 shots/match
58.7%Possession18/1851.5%
5.5 corners/matchCorners18/185.17 corners/match
2.56 cards/matchCards18/181.61 cards/match
12 fouls/matchFouls18/189.89 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

9 / 9 matches
1.44 goals/matchGoals scored9/9▲1.56 goals/match
1 goals/match▲Goals allowed9/91.33 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
15 shots/match▲Shots9/911.1 shots/match
5 shots/match▲Shots on target9/93.89 shots/match
58.9%Possession9/953.9%
6.78 corners/matchCorners9/95.11 corners/match
2 cards/matchCards9/91.89 cards/match
11.9 fouls/matchFouls9/910.7 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7.21 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/16.04 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples18 / 18home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 27 Dec 2025, 21:30 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsChelseaAston Villa
CompetitionPremier League
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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