PitchMath
Premier League · 2025Tue, 30 Dec 2025, 19:30 UTCFull timeStamford BridgeFull-time recap

Chelsea

LDWDL
2–2Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricChelseaBournemouth
Shots17 shots/match17 shots/match
Shots on target3 shots/match6 shots/match▲
Possession67%33%
Corners12 corners/match3 corners/match
Fouls5 fouls/match12 fouls/match
Yellow cards1 cards/match1 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Chelsea, Bournemouth. A second useful context is: Chelsea's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

weak

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Chelsea, Bournemouth.

3.08 days▲Rest daysChelsea · Bournemouth3.19 days
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

MetricChelseaBournemouthBaseline
Rest days3.08 days3.19 days—
Matches last 14 days2 matches2 matches—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

Chelsea's recent record differs from the season

weak

Chelsea's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1.4 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.68 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.4 goals/match1.68 goals/match1.43 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Both teams have elevated corners records

moderate

Each team's season corners average is above the competition baseline.

5.84 corners/match▲CornersChelsea · Bournemouth5.74 corners/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Both team averages are compared with the same competition baseline.

Window: season

MetricChelseaBournemouthBaseline
Corners5.84 corners/match5.74 corners/match4.97 corners/match

Caveat: A shared historical pattern is descriptive and may not repeat in one fixture.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0Chelsea
1Draws
0Bournemouth
Bournemouth — Chelsea · Premier League0–0

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Chelsea favored in 7 of 14 directional metrics · Bournemouth in 1 · 6 too close

1.68 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 19/191.53 goals/match
1.11 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 19/191.84 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
14.2 shots/matchShotsseason · 19/1913.8 shots/match
10.5 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 19/1912.2 shots/match
4.84 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 19/19▲5.16 shots/match
3.58 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 19/194.68 shots/match
59.2%Possessionseason · 19/1951.4%
5.84 corners/matchCornersseason · 19/195.74 corners/match
4.26 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 19/194.53 corners/match
2.47 cards/matchCardsseason · 19/192.42 cards/match
11.6 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 19/1912.5 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
42%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 19/1926%
89%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 19/1979%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Chelsea92.5
Bournemouth57.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Chelsea79.2
Bournemouth74.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Chelsea84.2
Bournemouth27.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Chelsea42.5
Bournemouth82.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Chelsea85
Bournemouth87.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Chelsea92.5
Bournemouth82.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Chelsea82.5
Bournemouth83.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1.4 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲1.6 goals/match
1.2 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/52.2 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
14.4 shots/matchShots5/5▲16 shots/match
3.8 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲6.2 shots/match
60.4%Possession5/546.4%
5.2 corners/matchCorners5/56.4 corners/match
3 cards/matchCards5/51.4 cards/match
12.2 fouls/matchFouls5/511.6 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
1.5 goals/match▲Goals scored10/101.3 goals/match
1 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/102.4 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
14.7 shots/matchShots10/1015.1 shots/match
4.7 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲5.7 shots/match
58.3%Possession10/1052%
5.5 corners/matchCorners10/105.8 corners/match
2.4 cards/matchCards10/102.3 cards/match
11.8 fouls/matchFouls10/1012.5 fouls/match

Window

Season

19 / 19 matches
1.68 goals/match▲Goals scored19/191.53 goals/match
1.11 goals/match▲Goals allowed19/191.84 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
14.2 shots/matchShots19/1913.8 shots/match
4.84 shots/matchShots on target19/19▲5.16 shots/match
59.2%Possession19/1951.4%
5.84 corners/matchCorners19/195.74 corners/match
2.47 cards/matchCards19/192.42 cards/match
11.6 fouls/matchFouls19/1912.5 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

10 / 10 matches
1.5 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲1.8 goals/match
1.1 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/102.9 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
15.2 shots/match▲Shots10/1013.9 shots/match
4.8 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲5.8 shots/match
59.7%Possession10/1046.9%
7.3 corners/matchCorners10/106.2 corners/match
1.9 cards/matchCards10/102.8 cards/match
11.2 fouls/matchFouls10/1012.8 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

3.08 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/13.19 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples19 / 19home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Tue, 30 Dec 2025, 23:30 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsChelseaBournemouth
CompetitionPremier League
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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