PitchMath
Premier League · 2025Tue, 30 Dec 2025, 19:30 UTCFull timeCity GroundFull-time recap
0–2Full-time recap

Everton

WWLLD

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricNottingham ForestEverton
Shots21 shots/match▲11 shots/match
Shots on target6 shots/match▲3 shots/match
Possession70%30%
Corners9 corners/match2 corners/match
Fouls11 fouls/match9 fouls/match
Yellow cards1 cards/match0 cards/match▲

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Nottingham Forest, Everton. A second useful context is: Nottingham Forest's home-only shot average is above their full-season average. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

weak

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Nottingham Forest, Everton.

3.29 days▲Rest daysNottingham Forest · Everton3.19 days
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

MetricNottingham ForestEvertonBaseline
Rest days3.29 days3.19 days—
Matches last 14 days2 matches2 matches—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

Nottingham Forest have a visible home split

moderate

Nottingham Forest's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

14.9 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season12.5 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots14.9 shots/match12.5 shots/match12.2 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Nottingham Forest's recent record differs from the season

weak

Nottingham Forest's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.8 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.95 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.8 goals/match0.95 goals/match1.43 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0Nottingham Forest
0Draws
1Everton
Everton — Nottingham Forest · Premier League3–0

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Nottingham Forest favored in 5 of 14 directional metrics · Everton in 5 · 4 too close

0.95 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 19/19▲1.05 goals/match
1.58 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 19/19▲1.05 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
12.5 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 19/1910.6 shots/match
12.8 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 19/1913.7 shots/match
3.95 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 19/193.05 shots/match
4.42 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 19/19▲4 shots/match
50.8%Possessionseason · 19/1942.7%
5.53 corners/matchCornersseason · 19/194.32 corners/match
4.42 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 19/195.16 corners/match
1.68 cards/match▲Cardsseason · 19/192 cards/match
10.8 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 19/1910.2 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
16%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 19/19▲42%
47%Scoring frequencyseason · 19/19▲63%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Nottingham Forest42.5
Everton17.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Nottingham Forest32.5
Everton18.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Nottingham Forest30.8
Everton55
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Nottingham Forest57.5
Everton67.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Nottingham Forest48.8
Everton55
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Nottingham Forest72.5
Everton22.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Nottingham Forest56.2
Everton27.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
0.8 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲1 goals/match
1.6 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲0.6 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.4 shots/match▲Shots5/510.6 shots/match
3.8 shots/match▲Shots on target5/53.4 shots/match
52.2%Possession5/538.8%
5 corners/matchCorners5/54.4 corners/match
2 cards/matchCards5/51.6 cards/match
9.8 fouls/matchFouls5/59.8 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
1.3 goals/match▲Goals scored10/101.1 goals/match
1.3 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲0.8 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13.7 shots/match▲Shots10/1010.1 shots/match
4.1 shots/match▲Shots on target10/103 shots/match
47.5%Possession10/1040.7%
6.3 corners/matchCorners10/104.5 corners/match
1.5 cards/matchCards10/101.6 cards/match
10.6 fouls/matchFouls10/109.9 fouls/match

Window

Season

19 / 19 matches
0.95 goals/matchGoals scored19/19▲1.05 goals/match
1.58 goals/matchGoals allowed19/19▲1.05 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.5 shots/match▲Shots19/1910.6 shots/match
3.95 shots/match▲Shots on target19/193.05 shots/match
50.8%Possession19/1942.7%
5.53 corners/matchCorners19/194.32 corners/match
1.68 cards/matchCards19/192 cards/match
10.8 fouls/matchFouls19/1910.2 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

10 / 10 matches
1.2 goals/match▲Goals scored10/100.9 goals/match
1.7 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲1 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
14.9 shots/match▲Shots10/109.2 shots/match
4.2 shots/match▲Shots on target10/102.5 shots/match
51.8%Possession10/1039.1%
6.6 corners/matchCorners10/103.3 corners/match
1.3 cards/matchCards10/101.6 cards/match
10.8 fouls/matchFouls10/1010.5 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

3.29 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/13.19 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples19 / 19home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Tue, 30 Dec 2025, 23:30 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsNottingham ForestEverton
CompetitionPremier League
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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