PitchMath
Premier League · 2025Sat, 27 Dec 2025, 12:30 UTCFull timeCity GroundFull-time recap
1–2Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricNottingham ForestManchester City
Shots7 shots/match16 shots/match▲
Shots on target2 shots/match5 shots/match▲
Possession34%66%
Corners5 corners/match5 corners/match
Fouls5 fouls/match13 fouls/match
Yellow cards1 cards/match▲2 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Manchester City's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Nottingham Forest's home-only shot average is above their full-season average. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Manchester City's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Manchester City's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

3.2 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season2.39 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for3.2 goals/match2.39 goals/match1.43 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Nottingham Forest have a visible home split

moderate

Nottingham Forest's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

14.2 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season12 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots14.2 shots/match12 shots/match11.8 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Manchester City show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

Manchester City's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

12 shots/match▲ShotsNottingham Forest · Manchester City14.2 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricNottingham ForestManchester CityBaseline
Shots12 shots/match14.2 shots/match11.8 shots/match
Shots against12.9 shots/match9.39 shots/match11.8 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Nottingham Forest favored in 0 of 14 directional metrics · Manchester City in 9 · 5 too close

1 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 18/18▲2.39 goals/match
1.56 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 18/18▲0.94 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
12 shots/matchShotsseason · 18/18▲14.2 shots/match
12.9 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 18/18▲9.39 shots/match
3.83 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 18/18▲5.5 shots/match
4.5 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 18/18▲3.22 shots/match
49.8%Possessionseason · 18/1858.3%
5.33 corners/matchCornersseason · 18/185.56 corners/match
4.56 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 18/18▲4.06 corners/match
1.72 cards/matchCardsseason · 18/181.67 cards/match
10.8 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 18/189.94 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
17%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 18/18▲44%
50%Scoring frequencyseason · 18/18▲89%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Nottingham Forest42.5
Manchester City82.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Nottingham Forest33.3
Manchester City90.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Nottingham Forest28.3
Manchester City90.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Nottingham Forest52.5
Manchester City62.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Nottingham Forest51.2
Manchester City30
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Nottingham Forest67.5
Manchester City77.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Nottingham Forest55
Manchester City70
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲3.2 goals/match
1.2 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲1 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
10.2 shots/matchShots5/5▲13.8 shots/match
3.2 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲5.8 shots/match
48.2%Possession5/560%
5 corners/matchCorners5/54.2 corners/match
2.2 cards/matchCards5/51 cards/match
9.8 fouls/matchFouls5/510.2 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
1.3 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲2.6 goals/match
1.3 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲1.1 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.4 shots/matchShots10/10▲15.1 shots/match
3.9 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲6 shots/match
45.3%Possession10/1057.9%
5.8 corners/matchCorners10/106 corners/match
1.5 cards/matchCards10/102 cards/match
10.2 fouls/matchFouls10/1011.4 fouls/match

Window

Season

18 / 18 matches
1 goals/matchGoals scored18/18▲2.39 goals/match
1.56 goals/matchGoals allowed18/18▲0.94 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12 shots/matchShots18/18▲14.2 shots/match
3.83 shots/matchShots on target18/18▲5.5 shots/match
49.8%Possession18/1858.3%
5.33 corners/matchCorners18/185.56 corners/match
1.72 cards/matchCards18/181.67 cards/match
10.8 fouls/matchFouls18/189.94 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

9 / 9 matches
1.33 goals/matchGoals scored9/9▲2 goals/match
1.67 goals/matchGoals allowed9/9▲1.22 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
14.2 shots/match▲Shots9/912.3 shots/match
4 shots/matchShots on target9/94.11 shots/match
49.8%Possession9/957.1%
6.33 corners/matchCorners9/93.78 corners/match
1.33 cards/matchCards9/92 cards/match
10.8 fouls/matchFouls9/99.67 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

4.69 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/16.9 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples18 / 18home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 27 Dec 2025, 16:30 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsNottingham ForestManchester City
CompetitionPremier League
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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