PitchMath
Premier League · 2025Thu, 1 Jan 2026, 20:00 UTCFull timeStadium of LightFull-time recap
0–0Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricSunderlandManchester City
Shots10 shots/match14 shots/match▲
Shots on target4 shots/match4 shots/match
Possession32%68%
Corners3 corners/match5 corners/match
Fouls9 fouls/match6 fouls/match
Yellow cards1 cards/match1 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Sunderland's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: Sunderland's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Sunderland's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Sunderland's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.4 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.05 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.4 goals/match1.05 goals/match1.39 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Sunderland show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Sunderland's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

9.53 shots/match▲ShotsSunderland · Manchester City14.2 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricSunderlandManchester CityBaseline
Shots9.53 shots/match14.2 shots/match12.2 shots/match
Shots against14.8 shots/match9.42 shots/match11.9 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

The teams have contrasting possession records

strong

Manchester City have recorded the higher season possession share.

41.8%▲PossessionSunderland · Manchester City58.8%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 16.9 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricSunderlandManchester CityBaseline
Possession41.8%58.8%51.1%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0Sunderland
0Draws
1Manchester City
Manchester City — Sunderland · Premier League3–0

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Sunderland favored in 0 of 14 directional metrics · Manchester City in 10 · 4 too close

1.05 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 19/19▲2.26 goals/match
0.95 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 19/19▲0.89 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
9.53 shots/matchShotsseason · 19/19▲14.2 shots/match
14.8 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 19/19▲9.42 shots/match
3.11 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 19/19▲5.42 shots/match
4.58 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 19/19▲3.26 shots/match
41.8%Possessionseason · 19/1958.8%
3.53 corners/matchCornersseason · 19/195.53 corners/match
4.95 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 19/19▲4 corners/match
2.05 cards/matchCardsseason · 19/19▲1.63 cards/match
9.89 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 19/199.74 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
37%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 19/19▲47%
63%Scoring frequencyseason · 19/19▲84%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Sunderland10
Manchester City87.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Sunderland15
Manchester City90
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Sunderland40.8
Manchester City92.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Sunderland27.5
Manchester City47.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Sunderland52.5
Manchester City22.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Sunderland7.5
Manchester City75
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Sunderland18.1
Manchester City66.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
0.4 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲2.2 goals/match
0.8 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲0.2 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
9 shots/matchShots5/5▲14.4 shots/match
3 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲5.8 shots/match
40.2%Possession5/565%
3.6 corners/matchCorners5/54.8 corners/match
2 cards/matchCards5/51 cards/match
10.2 fouls/matchFouls5/510 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
0.9 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲2.6 goals/match
1.1 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲1 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
9.3 shots/matchShots10/10▲14.7 shots/match
3.4 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲6 shots/match
41.5%Possession10/1059.4%
3.7 corners/matchCorners10/105.9 corners/match
2.4 cards/matchCards10/101.7 cards/match
10.6 fouls/matchFouls10/1010.4 fouls/match

Window

Season

19 / 19 matches
1.05 goals/matchGoals scored19/19▲2.26 goals/match
0.95 goals/matchGoals allowed19/19▲0.89 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
9.53 shots/matchShots19/19▲14.2 shots/match
3.11 shots/matchShots on target19/19▲5.42 shots/match
41.8%Possession19/1958.8%
3.53 corners/matchCorners19/195.53 corners/match
2.05 cards/matchCards19/191.63 cards/match
9.89 fouls/matchFouls19/199.74 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

10 / 10 matches
1.6 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲1.8 goals/match
0.8 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/101.1 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
10.2 shots/matchShots10/10▲12.5 shots/match
3.3 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲4.1 shots/match
42.2%Possession10/1058.2%
3.7 corners/matchCorners10/103.9 corners/match
2.3 cards/matchCards10/101.9 cards/match
10.1 fouls/matchFouls10/109.3 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

4.25 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/15.31 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples19 / 19home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Fri, 2 Jan 2026, 00:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsSunderlandManchester City
CompetitionPremier League
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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