PitchMath
Premier League · 2025Sun, 4 Jan 2026, 17:30 UTCFull timeEtihad StadiumFull-time recap
1–1Full-time recap

Chelsea

DWDLD

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricManchester CityChelsea
Shots14 shots/match▲8 shots/match
Shots on target3 shots/match3 shots/match
Possession57%43%
Corners8 corners/match2 corners/match
Fouls12 fouls/match14 fouls/match
Yellow cards3 cards/match3 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Manchester City. A second useful context is: Manchester City's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

moderate

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Manchester City.

2.9 days▲Rest daysManchester City · Chelsea4.92 days
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

MetricManchester CityChelseaBaseline
Rest days2.9 days4.92 days—
Matches last 14 days2 matches2 matches—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

Manchester City's recent record differs from the season

weak

Manchester City's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1.8 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season2.2 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.8 goals/match2.2 goals/match1.4 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Both teams have elevated corners records

moderate

Each team's season corners average is above the competition baseline.

5.65 corners/match▲CornersManchester City · Chelsea5.65 corners/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Both team averages are compared with the same competition baseline.

Window: season

MetricManchester CityChelseaBaseline
Corners5.65 corners/match5.65 corners/match4.9 corners/match

Caveat: A shared historical pattern is descriptive and may not repeat in one fixture.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Manchester City favored in 8 of 14 directional metrics · Chelsea in 1 · 5 too close

2.2 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 20/201.65 goals/match
0.9 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 20/201.1 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
14.2 shots/matchShotsseason · 20/2013.9 shots/match
9.35 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 20/2010.7 shots/match
5.3 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 20/204.75 shots/match
3.25 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 20/203.55 shots/match
58.7%Possessionseason · 20/2058.4%
5.65 corners/matchCornersseason · 20/205.65 corners/match
3.9 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 20/204.45 corners/match
1.7 cards/match▲Cardsseason · 20/202.5 cards/match
9.85 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 20/2011.8 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
45%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 20/2040%
85%Scoring frequencyseason · 20/20▲90%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Manchester City92.5
Chelsea82.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Manchester City90.8
Chelsea77.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Manchester City92.5
Chelsea85.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Manchester City47.5
Chelsea42.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Manchester City31.2
Chelsea87.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Manchester City80
Chelsea80
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Manchester City70
Chelsea78.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1.8 goals/match▲Goals scored5/51.6 goals/match
0.4 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/51.4 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13.6 shots/matchShots5/513.8 shots/match
5.2 shots/match▲Shots on target5/53.6 shots/match
63.6%Possession5/556.8%
5.2 corners/matchCorners5/55.6 corners/match
1.4 cards/matchCards5/53.2 cards/match
10.6 fouls/matchFouls5/512.4 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
2.4 goals/match▲Goals scored10/101.5 goals/match
1 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/101.1 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
14.6 shots/matchShots10/1014 shots/match
5.5 shots/match▲Shots on target10/104.1 shots/match
60.3%Possession10/1057.4%
5.8 corners/matchCorners10/105.2 corners/match
1.8 cards/matchCards10/102.5 cards/match
10.8 fouls/matchFouls10/1012 fouls/match

Window

Season

20 / 20 matches
2.2 goals/match▲Goals scored20/201.65 goals/match
0.9 goals/match▲Goals allowed20/201.1 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
14.2 shots/matchShots20/2013.9 shots/match
5.3 shots/match▲Shots on target20/204.75 shots/match
58.7%Possession20/2058.4%
5.65 corners/matchCorners20/205.65 corners/match
1.7 cards/matchCards20/202.5 cards/match
9.85 fouls/matchFouls20/2011.8 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

10 / 10 matches
2.6 goals/match▲Goals scored10/101.8 goals/match
0.7 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/101.1 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
15.9 shots/match▲Shots10/1012.6 shots/match
6.5 shots/match▲Shots on target10/104.7 shots/match
59.2%Possession10/1057%
7.4 corners/matchCorners10/104 corners/match
1.5 cards/matchCards10/103.1 cards/match
10.4 fouls/matchFouls10/1012.3 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

2.9 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/14.92 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples20 / 20home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 4 Jan 2026, 21:30 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsManchester CityChelsea
CompetitionPremier League
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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