PitchMath
Premier League · 2025Wed, 7 Jan 2026, 19:30 UTCFull timeCraven CottageFull-time recap

Fulham

WWWDD
2–1Full-time recap

Chelsea

WDLDD

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricFulhamChelsea
Shots16 shots/match▲14 shots/match
Shots on target5 shots/match6 shots/match▲
Possession55%45%
Corners2 corners/match11 corners/match
Fouls11 fouls/match6 fouls/match
Yellow cards3 cards/match3 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Fulham, Chelsea. A second useful context is: Fulham's last-five shots average is above their season average. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

weak

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Fulham, Chelsea.

3.18 days▲Rest daysFulham · Chelsea3.08 days
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

MetricFulhamChelseaBaseline
Rest days3.18 days3.08 days—
Matches last 14 days3 matches3 matches—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

Fulham's recent record differs from the season

weak

Fulham's last-five shots average is above their season average.

13.8 shots/match▲ShotsLast 5 · Season12 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Shots13.8 shots/match12 shots/match12.2 shots/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0Fulham
0Draws
1Chelsea
Chelsea — Fulham · Premier League2–0

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Fulham favored in 1 of 14 directional metrics · Chelsea in 8 · 5 too close

1.43 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 21/21▲1.62 goals/match
1.43 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 21/21▲1.14 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
12 shots/matchShotsseason · 21/21▲13.9 shots/match
11.3 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 21/2111 shots/match
3.76 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 21/21▲4.81 shots/match
3.95 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 21/21▲3.62 shots/match
51.2%Possessionseason · 21/2157.7%
4.52 corners/matchCornersseason · 21/215.9 corners/match
5.71 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 21/21▲4.33 corners/match
2.14 cards/match▲Cardsseason · 21/212.57 cards/match
11.1 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 21/2111.5 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
24%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 21/21▲38%
86%Scoring frequencyseason · 21/21▲90%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Fulham57.5
Chelsea82.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Fulham41.7
Chelsea75.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Fulham55.8
Chelsea80
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Fulham37.5
Chelsea42.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Fulham70
Chelsea85
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Fulham32.5
Chelsea92.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Fulham45
Chelsea81.9
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1.4 goals/matchGoals scored5/51.4 goals/match
0.8 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/51.8 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13.8 shots/matchShots5/513.2 shots/match
3.6 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲3.8 shots/match
52.6%Possession5/554.2%
2.6 corners/matchCorners5/57 corners/match
3.4 cards/matchCards5/53.8 cards/match
9 fouls/matchFouls5/511 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
1.8 goals/match▲Goals scored10/101.3 goals/match
1.4 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲1.3 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13 shots/matchShots10/1013.4 shots/match
4.1 shots/matchShots on target10/103.9 shots/match
52.4%Possession10/1055.5%
3.9 corners/matchCorners10/105.3 corners/match
2.4 cards/matchCards10/102.8 cards/match
7.9 fouls/matchFouls10/1011.4 fouls/match

Window

Season

21 / 21 matches
1.43 goals/matchGoals scored21/21▲1.62 goals/match
1.43 goals/matchGoals allowed21/21▲1.14 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12 shots/matchShots21/21▲13.9 shots/match
3.76 shots/matchShots on target21/21▲4.81 shots/match
51.2%Possession21/2157.7%
4.52 corners/matchCorners21/215.9 corners/match
2.14 cards/matchCards21/212.57 cards/match
11.1 fouls/matchFouls21/2111.5 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

11 / 11 matches
1.73 goals/matchGoals scored11/111.73 goals/match
1.18 goals/matchGoals allowed11/111.18 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13 shots/matchShots11/1112.7 shots/match
3.64 shots/matchShots on target11/11▲4.82 shots/match
53%Possession11/1155.9%
5.09 corners/matchCorners11/114.64 corners/match
1.73 cards/matchCards11/113.18 cards/match
10.3 fouls/matchFouls11/1111.7 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

3.18 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/13.08 days
3 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/13 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples21 / 21home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Wed, 7 Jan 2026, 23:30 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsFulhamChelsea
CompetitionPremier League
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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