PitchMath
Premier League · 2025Wed, 7 Jan 2026, 19:30 UTCFull timeBrentford Community StadiumFull-time recap
3–0Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricBrentfordSunderland
Shots18 shots/match▲11 shots/match
Shots on target6 shots/match▲3 shots/match
Possession51%49%
Corners7 corners/match4 corners/match
Fouls13 fouls/match13 fouls/match
Yellow cards2 cards/match1 cards/match▲

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Sunderland's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Brentford, Sunderland. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Sunderland's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Sunderland's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.4 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.4 goals/match1 goals/match1.45 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

weak

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Brentford, Sunderland.

3.19 days▲Rest daysBrentford · Sunderland3.19 days
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

MetricBrentfordSunderlandBaseline
Rest days3.19 days3.19 days—
Matches last 14 days3 matches3 matches—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0Brentford
0Draws
1Sunderland
Sunderland — Brentford · Premier League2–1

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Brentford favored in 6 of 14 directional metrics · Sunderland in 2 · 6 too close

1.67 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 21/211 goals/match
1.33 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 21/21▲1.05 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
10.3 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 21/219.62 shots/match
12.6 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 21/2114.9 shots/match
4.24 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 21/213.1 shots/match
4.19 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 21/214.67 shots/match
46.3%Possessionseason · 21/2142.6%
4.9 corners/matchCornersseason · 21/213.62 corners/match
4.81 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 21/214.95 corners/match
1.95 cards/matchCardsseason · 21/212.05 cards/match
11.1 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 21/219.86 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
24%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 21/21▲33%
76%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 21/2162%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Brentford37.5
Sunderland7.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Brentford55.8
Sunderland10
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Brentford45
Sunderland38.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Brentford22.5
Sunderland27.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Brentford65
Sunderland48.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Brentford47.5
Sunderland7.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Brentford51.2
Sunderland15
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
2.6 goals/match▲Goals scored5/50.4 goals/match
0.6 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/51 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
11.6 shots/match▲Shots5/510.6 shots/match
5.6 shots/match▲Shots on target5/53.8 shots/match
53.6%Possession5/543.6%
4.2 corners/matchCorners5/53.8 corners/match
2.2 cards/matchCards5/51.6 cards/match
10.6 fouls/matchFouls5/510 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
1.8 goals/match▲Goals scored10/100.7 goals/match
1.1 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/101.2 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
9.9 shots/match▲Shots10/109.1 shots/match
4 shots/match▲Shots on target10/103.5 shots/match
49.8%Possession10/1041.9%
4.4 corners/matchCorners10/104 corners/match
1.8 cards/matchCards10/102.3 cards/match
9.5 fouls/matchFouls10/1010.2 fouls/match

Window

Season

21 / 21 matches
1.67 goals/match▲Goals scored21/211 goals/match
1.33 goals/matchGoals allowed21/21▲1.05 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
10.3 shots/match▲Shots21/219.62 shots/match
4.24 shots/match▲Shots on target21/213.1 shots/match
46.3%Possession21/2142.6%
4.9 corners/matchCorners21/213.62 corners/match
1.95 cards/matchCards21/212.05 cards/match
11.1 fouls/matchFouls21/219.86 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

11 / 11 matches
2.09 goals/match▲Goals scored11/110.45 goals/match
0.91 goals/match▲Goals allowed11/111.27 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
11.4 shots/match▲Shots11/119.09 shots/match
4.64 shots/match▲Shots on target11/112.91 shots/match
43.6%Possession11/1143%
3.82 corners/matchCorners11/113.55 corners/match
1.73 cards/matchCards11/111.82 cards/match
11.2 fouls/matchFouls11/119.64 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

3.19 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/13.19 days
3 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/13 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples21 / 21home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Wed, 7 Jan 2026, 23:30 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsBrentfordSunderland
CompetitionPremier League
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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